Crude oil: prices fluctuated and rose. In the early part of the week, the release effect of the International Energy Agency continued to be bad for the market atmosphere, and investors’ fear of supply shortage gradually eased. However, the market questioned the long-term impact of the joint release of emergency oil reserves by the International Energy Agency on the market. The slow progress of Russia Ukraine negotiations supported the oil price, and the original oil price fell first and then rose. In the late part of the week, although it was worried that covid-19 control measures would lead to a slowdown in demand, as well as the joint release of oil strategic reserves by the EIA and a significant increase in U.S. crude oil inventories, the Russian Ukrainian negotiations were at an impasse, Russian crude oil production fell due to sanctions, and OPEC warned that it was impossible to make up for the loss of 7 million barrels of oil and other liquid energy exports per day. In addition, OPEC also said it would not increase production, and the international oil price fluctuated and rose. At present, the weekly average price of Brent crude oil is 103.43 (- 1.38) USD / barrel, and the weekly average price of WTI crude oil is 99.11 (- 1.22) USD / barrel.
PX: market range sorting and operation. The international oil price fluctuated and rose, and the cost side support was acceptable; The supply of PX market continued to decline slightly this week. Due to the maintenance of front-end devices, the supply circulation of PX market is not loose, which has a certain support for the market; However, the downstream PTA market demand fluctuates greatly, and the demand for raw materials is difficult to increase due to the load reduction or shutdown of many large units. However, due to the relatively strong current price performance of PTA, there is no significant drag on the upstream PX market, and the PX processing performance is poor. At present, the weekly average price of PX CFR China’s main port is 118989 (+ 13.17) US dollars / ton, the price difference between PX and crude oil is 434.87 (+ 23.26) US dollars / ton, the weekly average price difference between PX and naphtha is 245.42 (- 11.78) US dollars / ton, and the operating rate is 68.00% (+ 0.00pct).
PTA: market shock finishing operation. The international oil price fluctuated and rose, and the cost side support has strengthened to a certain extent; The PTA market has experienced frequent changes in large-scale devices, and the overall supply of the market has declined significantly, but the overall operation of downstream polyester has declined sharply under multiple pressures, the demand for raw materials has weakened, and the PTA spot basis has also weakened slightly from strong. At the same time, affected by the epidemic situation in many places, the logistics control policies of major printing and dyeing bases have been upgraded, and there are many logistics restrictions on terminals and warehouses in many places. The overall supply flow of the market is slow, and the overall trading slows down. At present, the average weekly price of PTA spot is 610571 (- 55.71) yuan / ton, the industry average net profit per ton is -71.71 (- 30.10) yuan / ton, the operating rate is 64.90% (- 4.90pct), and the social circulation inventory of PTA is 1.8320 (+ 0.70) million tons.
MEG: market price is weak. The international oil price fluctuated and rose, the international price of naphtha fluctuated and rose slightly, the price focus of power coal fell, and the cost support remained. From the supply side, in terms of plant start-up in China, plant shutdown, maintenance and restart coexist. However, under the influence of the recent epidemic, it is difficult for the port to ship, and the supply side is weak. From the perspective of demand, with the development of the epidemic becoming more and more serious, and some cities adopt static control, the load of polyester factories is forced to be reduced, the demand for raw materials is further reduced, and the demand side performance remains depressed. At present, the weekly average price of MEG spot is 482714 (- 196.43) yuan / ton, the inventory in East China tank farm is 10582 (+ 63700) tons, and the operating rate is 65.20% (+ 0.00pct).
Polyester filament: market shock down. At the beginning of the week, the cost side was weak, the support was insufficient, the impact of the epidemic was superimposed, the logistics and transportation in many places were limited, and the demand side still showed a weak trend. The partial quotation of polyester filament market was reduced, and the orders in the downstream market were scarce. Since the middle of the week, the international oil price has continued to rebound and rose sharply, the pressure on the polymerization cost side has increased, and the cash flow of polyester filament is in a state of loss. Due to the epidemic in some areas, The procurement of raw materials and the transportation of finished product inventory are difficult to circulate. Under the high inventory pressure of filament enterprises, production is reduced one after another, and the market price of filament is difficult to rise synchronously with the price of raw materials. At present, the weekly average price of polyester filament is poy770143 (- 224.29) yuan / ton, fdy827000 (- 72.86) yuan / ton and dty930714 (- 178.57) yuan / ton, the industry’s average profit per ton is poy-226.14 (- 72.73) yuan / ton, fdy-114.25 (+ 27.77) yuan / ton and dty-23.23 (- 42.39) yuan / ton respectively, and the inventory days of polyester filament enterprises are poy33.5 yuan / ton respectively 50 (+ 1.70) days, fdy34 00 (+ 1.50) days and dty37 20 (+ 1.40) days, operating rate 83.30% (- 4.50pct).
Weaving: demand continues to be weak. The pressure of epidemic prevention and control in China is great, the demand for terminal clothing and textile continues to be weak, and the foreign trade market is also worrying. The epidemic situation in Southeast Asia, the Middle East and other regions has improved, and some European and American orders have returned to the region. The inventory of grey cloth factories in many places continued to rise, the production enthusiasm of downstream weaving enterprises was not high, and the operating rate decreased significantly. At present, the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 51.74% (+ 1.77pct), and the grey fabric inventory is 35.00 (+ 0.50) days.
Polyester staple fiber: the market fluctuated and rose. At the beginning of the week, the cost side support was insufficient, the superposition futures disk trend was poor, and the market atmosphere was empty. However, the price support mentality of short fiber enterprises was obvious after reducing the negative, so the enterprise quotation was temporarily stable, and the transaction focus shifted slightly downward. In the middle of the week, the crude oil rebounded in the intraday, the cost support recovered, and the short fiber futures rose rapidly within the day. The enterprise quotation was mainly stable and wait-and-see, but the real order preference was reduced. Under the influence of this, the downstream users had strong bullish sentiment and the overall production and sales increased greatly. In the late part of the week, the oil price continued to rise, the cost support was strong, and the enterprise mentality was boosted by the good production and sales of the previous day. They raised their quotations one after another, but the downstream returned to rationality and the production and sales fell. At present, the weekly average price of polyester staple fiber is 777524 (- 9.05) yuan / ton, the industry average profit per ton is -11.22 (+ 70.12) yuan / ton, the inventory days of polyester staple fiber enterprises are 3.00 (+ 0.60) days, and the operating rate is 68.20% (- 3.00pct).
Polyester bottle chip: the market price fluctuates downward. In terms of supply side, bottles and chips, at present, the operation of enterprises is generally stable; The inventory of polyester bottle and chip factories in China has increased. The crude oil market has fluctuated at a high level this week, and the cost support is OK. However, affected by the epidemic, the wait-and-see mood in the downstream is obvious, and there are few market transactions. On the demand side, the recent epidemic situation in various regions has been repeated, which has seriously affected the transportation, and the transportation cost has been increasing, which has exacerbated the wait-and-see atmosphere in the downstream. The market demand is still relatively cold, and there are few transactions in the overall market. At present, the average spot price of PET bottles and chips is 816071 (- 49.29) yuan / ton, the industry average net profit per ton is + 377.37 (+ 43.42) yuan / ton, and the operating rate is 86.70% (- 4.40pct).
Xinda refining and chemical index: from September 4, 2017 to April 15, 2022, Xinda refining and chemical index increased by 125.07%, petroleum and petrochemical industry index increased by 0.26%, and Shanghai Shenzhen 300 index increased by 8.92%.
Relevant listed companies: Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) ( Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) . SH), Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) ( Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) . SH), Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) ( Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) . SZ), Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) ( Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) . SZ), Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) ( Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) . SH) and Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) ( Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) . SZ), etc.
Risk factors: (1) the large-scale refining and chemical plant is put into operation, and the production schedule is lower than expected. (2) The macro-economic growth rate has declined seriously, resulting in a serious depression on the demand side of polyester. (3) Geopolitics and El Ni ñ o phenomenon have greatly interfered with oil prices. (4) The production capacity of px-pta-pet industrial chain cannot be expected to change significantly.
