In March 2022, the national cement output was 187 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.6%, and the decline was narrowed month on month; In March, the output of flat glass was 87.22 million weight boxes, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, and the glass production capacity increased less. The export of glass fiber industry is still strong, and the price toughness of roving is still maintained.
The decline in output narrowed, and infrastructure construction may be the main driving point. From January to March 2022, the cumulative cement output in China was 387 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12.1%. In March alone, the cement output was 187 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.6%, and the previous value decreased by 17.8%. Despite the interference of the epidemic in many parts of the country, the decline in cement production in March still narrowed. We believe that it is mainly supported by infrastructure. Combined with the year-on-year decline of 17.5% in new housing construction in the first quarter and the decline of land acquisition area of 41.8%, we believe that real estate construction may continue to be depressed before the land acquisition end improves. In terms of infrastructure investment, it increased by 8.5% year-on-year, and the performance is still good. We believe that the main driving force of cement demand this year will be infrastructure construction.
Glass industry: prices fell, inventories accumulated, and production capacity basically did not increase. In the first quarter, the national flat glass output was 87.22 million weight boxes, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%; Glass production increased slightly. At present, the national average glass price is 104.7 yuan, which is lower than the previous high. From the cost side, the prices of petroleum coke and soda ash have increased to a certain extent compared with the previous period, and the cost price difference has dropped, reaching 48.7 yuan / weight box at present. In terms of inventory, affected by the downturn of real estate completion, the downstream demand for glass is relatively weak, and the inventory has accumulated for several consecutive weeks. At present, the number of inventory days is 19.6 days.
Glass fiber industry: strong external demand and strong export. The export of glass fiber industry maintained a substantial growth. In January and February, the export volume of China’s glass fiber and products was 17900 tons and 15600 tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 56.3% and 44.9% respectively. Considering that this time last year was the middle of the upward cycle of this round of glass fiber boom, and the base is not low, we believe that the current export boom of glass fiber is still good and is expected to continue.
Glass fiber roving still maintains strong toughness. At present, the prices of 2400tex winding direct yarn, 2400tex felt ply yarn, 2400texsmc ply yarn and 2400tex jet ply yarn are 6190, 9025, 8750 and 9850 yuan / ton respectively, which is slightly lower than the high price in the previous period, but still maintains relative toughness. The price of electronic yarn continued to fall. The average price of G75 electronic yarn per ton was 9375 yuan / ton, falling for several consecutive weeks. The price of platinum rhodium alloy at the cost side fluctuates greatly recently. At present, the unit price of platinum metal is 220 yuan / g and the price of rhodium metal is 4430 yuan / g. there is little difference between the average price of platinum metal and that of the same period in history, and the price of rhodium metal is at the waist.
Raw materials: coal prices rise and fall, and crude oil prices fluctuate at a high level. Recently, the price of crude oil and coal at the cost end of main raw materials and energy in the building materials industry fluctuated significantly. The coal price rose to 1700 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year, and recently dropped to about 1400 yuan. The crude oil price rose under the interference of international conflicts and other events, and the recent high level fluctuated. The prices of other raw materials have fluctuated relatively little since March.
Key recommendation
The cement industry recommends Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) , and it is suggested to pay attention to Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) , Ningxia Building Materials Group Co.Ltd(600449) ; Plastic pipe recommends ad shares and Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , and it is suggested to pay attention to China Liansu; Waterproof recommendation Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ; Pharmaceutical glass faucets Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass Co.Ltd(600529) and flat glass faucets Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) with relatively low valuation are recommended in the glass industry; Recommended by glass fiber industry China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Shandong Fiberglass Group Co.Ltd(605006) , Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) ; Recommended water reducing agent Lets Holdings Group Co.Ltd(002398) .
Main risks of rating
Risk tip: the demand for glass fiber is less than expected, and the pace of production capacity is accelerated; The fiscal rhythm is still slow, and the real estate easing and infrastructure recovery are less than expected; Industry policy risk; Rising raw material costs; Energy consumption double control and production restriction risk; The real estate chain continues to be weak.
