Matters:
The premium data of major listed insurance companies have been released in March 2022, and it is expected that new life insurance orders and NBV are still under pressure.
Ping An View:
Life insurance business: as of March 2022, the growth rate of the accumulated original premium income of the life insurance business of major listed insurance companies has been significantly differentiated - PICC (18.3%) CPIC (4.2%) Xinhua (2.4%) Ping An (- 2.3%) Guoshou (- 2.7%) Taiping (- 3.2%); In March, the growth of original monthly premium income was also differentiated - CPIC (10.1%) Guoshou (5.6%) PICC (1.8%) Taiping (1.3%) Xinhua (- 4.1%) Ping An (- 4.2%). In the new one-sided, the life insurance of the people's insurance company has accumulated 39.5 billion yuan (YoY + 38.2%) of new orders for long-term insurance in the first year, including 13 billion yuan (yoy-11.1%) of new orders for regular payment and 26.5 billion yuan (YoY + 89.6%) of new orders for single payment. Ping An Life Insurance accumulated 49.8 billion yuan of new orders (yoy-14.9%), including 43.1 billion yuan of individual new orders (yoy-15.7%). Since February 2021, the definition of new serious diseases and the list of serious diseases have been switched. The base number of new orders of old products is high. Superimposed on the decline in the number of managers in 2022, the return of sales rhythm to normal, the rebound of epidemic situation in some areas, and the sales of new serious diseases are still under pressure. It is expected that the new orders of major listed insurance companies will still decline. Since March, in order to fully meet the diversified needs of customers, major listed insurance companies have vigorously increased the amount of life insurance. Although these products are shorter and have a higher reserve value rate, nbvm is lower than serious illness insurance as a whole; Superimposed with a good start and short-term reserves, it is expected that nbvm and NBV of 22q1 insurance companies will still decline.
Property insurance business: as of March 2022, the cumulative premium income of property insurance business of major listed insurance enterprises has achieved double-digit positive growth - CPIC (13.8%) PICC (12.2%) Ping An (10.3%). The growth rate of the original monthly premium income in March was lower than that in February: CPIC (10.9%) PICC (10.2%) Ping An (9.2%). The cumulative total premium of Ping An Property Insurance is 73 billion yuan (YoY + 10.3%), of which the cumulative premium of auto insurance is 47.1 billion yuan (YoY + 10.4%). The cumulative total premium of PICC Property Insurance was 152.1 billion yuan (YoY + 12.2%), including 63.8 billion yuan (YoY + 10.9%) for auto insurance and 22.2 billion yuan (YoY + 4.6%) for a single month in March, which was mainly due to the impact of the epidemic in China on the new insurance and renewal reinsurance business; In terms of monthly growth rate, agricultural insurance (45.9%) Italian health insurance (7.1%) auto insurance (4.6%).
The long-term interest rate is still fluctuating around 2.8%. As of April 18, 2022, the yield to maturity of 10-year Treasury bonds was about 2.81%, an increase of 3.5bps over the end of the previous year; It moves up and down about 3.02% on average at the end of the year. At present, the long-term interest rate fluctuates at a low level. On March 17, the Federal Reserve announced an interest rate increase, and the US bond interest rate continues to rise; On April 15, the central bank announced the reduction of the reserve requirement, but the interest rate difference between China and the United States has entered the upside down stage for the first time in nearly a decade, which may restrict the space of China's monetary policy. Looking back, the central bank's Semi-Step RRR reduction will enter the observation period. The market will pay attention to the inflection point of the epidemic and the wide credit policy, and the long-term interest rate may maintain a volatile trend.
Investment suggestion: from the liability side, the manpower, new orders and NBV of the main listed insurance companies have not been significantly improved, the life insurance transformation is still at the bottom stage, the inflection point of the liability side has not arrived, and the layout opportunities on the right side are still blowing. At present, the industry valuation and institutional positions are at the bottom of history. It is expected that insurance enterprises with clear strategy and firm reform will take the lead in improvement and have long-term allocation value; At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to the sectors brought by the recovery of market sentiment β quotation.
Risk tips: 1) the equity market fluctuates greatly, β Property led to increased volatility of the sector market. 2) The number of agents continued to decline, the quality improvement was less than expected, and the new orders fell more than expected. 3) The interest rate is lower than expected, and the allocation of maturing assets and new assets is under pressure.
