Trend resumption: the varieties benefiting from the epidemic are better, with certainty first and high flexibility relay. 1) The trend of condiment sector in 2020 can be divided into four stages. In the second stage (2020 / 2 / 27-9 / 2), the condiment sector significantly outperformed the market by 103.6pct due to Q2 channel replenishment and performance elasticity; 2) As seen by the performance of a single share, the Qianhe Condiment And Food Co.Ltd(603027) '' and other elastic targets with accelerated channel expansion led the rise.
Income side: benefit from the epidemic + speed up channel expansion, and the income elasticity of varieties is better. 1) Qianhe, Tianwei, pickled mustard and yeast epidemic benefit: under the 2020q1 epidemic, the dynamic sales of Ka channel are strong, and the Qianhe Condiment And Food Co.Ltd(603027) of deep ploughing Ka is more beneficial. At the same time, the epidemic situation accelerates the penetration of family end, and the dynamic sales of Tianwei is accelerated; Mustard and yeast products are also the beneficial categories of the epidemic; 2) Driven by the replenishment of channels, the income elasticity of the varieties benefiting from the epidemic is good: in 2020q1, affected by the weakness of catering and the obstruction of supply chain, the overall statements of enterprises are flat, but the household end inventory is accelerated; Q2 as the deregulation ushered in the replenishment market, the income elasticity of the subject of the epidemic is good. Among them, Tianwei and Qianhe are still in the early stage of nationalization, and the accelerated expansion of channels promotes the income to be more flexible. However, the competition pattern of yeast and mustard industry is good, with high certainty, followed by elasticity.
Profit side: product structure upgrading + cost contraction, with better performance elasticity. 1) Gross profit margin: in 2020, the cost pressure of condiment sector will be controllable. At the same time, the epidemic situation will release household demand, and the proportion of C-end products will increase, further promoting the rise of gross profit margin; 2) Cost rate: the epidemic control restricts H1 advertising, travel, promotion and other activities, and the cost is generally later than 2020h2; 3) Horizontal comparison: Sichuan Teway Food Group Co.Ltd(603317) / Qianhe Condiment And Food Co.Ltd(603027) / Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) / Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) performance flexibility is higher.
Outlook for 2022: the varieties benefiting from the epidemic have sufficient elasticity. 1) Income elasticity: optimistic about the performance of Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Sichuan Teway Food Group Co.Ltd(603317) , Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) and other categories benefiting from the epidemic. The current round of epidemic has greatly disturbed catering and Ka channels. Enterprises with sufficient distribution channels such as Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Sichuan Teway Food Group Co.Ltd(603317) and so on have benefited. Yeast has benefited from the replenishment of C-end high gross profit products, which are also the categories benefiting from the epidemic; The market in epidemic areas is expected to be liberalized and the follow-up logistics channels are expected to be supplemented in the short term; 2) Performance flexibility: Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) gross profit margin and expense rate have room for improvement. Qianhe and Tianwei are expected to enter the expense contraction cycle. 2022q2 mustard cost has strong downward certainty; This round of epidemic is also expected to catalyze the post investment of condiment enterprises, among which Qianhe Condiment And Food Co.Ltd(603027) , Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Sichuan Teway Food Group Co.Ltd(603317) 2022h1 has more full performance flexibility under the high cost base.
Investment suggestion: grasp the main line of benefiting from the epidemic and select stocks from the two dimensions of certainty and flexibility. At present, the inventory of condiment channels in major epidemic areas is accelerated. In the future, with the liberalization of epidemic control, it is expected to replicate the replenishment market in 2020q2, and be optimistic about the performance elasticity of the subject of benefit from the epidemic, the subject of certainty in the initial stage is expected to lead the rise, and the relay of high elasticity in the middle and later stages. It is mainly recommended that Qianhe Condiment And Food Co.Ltd(603027) , Sichuan Teway Food Group Co.Ltd(603317) , Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) , Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , and be optimistic about the elastic space of Qingdao Richen Food Co.Ltd(603755) under the main line of catering recovery.
Risk tip: repeated epidemic risk, higher than expected cost, cost model and related calculation limitations.
