Sichuan caizhou viewpoint
The new infrastructure share price deviates from the fundamentals, and the market sentiment still needs to be repaired. According to the disclosed quarterly report of listed companies, we expect the performance of new infrastructure such as digital economy, new energy and UHV to continue to maintain a rapid growth trend in the first quarter, but the share prices of relevant listed companies continue to decline, there is no sign of stabilization and recovery, and the share prices deviate from the fundamentals seriously. We believe that the lack of market confidence is the main reason. Factors such as the deterioration of geopolitical situation, global economic inflation, foreign capital flight and the severe epidemic situation in China still exist. Once again, the market is worried about the economic downturn, and the market risk appetite is significantly reduced. We believe that low-risk value stocks with undervalued value and high dividend are more in line with the current market stage, that is, traditional infrastructure, while new infrastructure with higher growth will still have opportunities in the later stage. However, it may appear after this round of stable growth of value stocks, and it is still in the brewing stage in the short term. The reason is that on the one hand, we have to wait until the economy stabilizes and recovers in the second and third quarters, the market confidence is restored, and the market style may switch again; On the other hand, there is a lack of incremental funds in the market, and the seesaw effect of value stocks and growth stocks is obvious. Only when this wave of value stock market ends, will there be funds to enter growth stocks again. Therefore, we expect that the overall rhythm of this year is value first and then growth. The growing new infrastructure field is optimistic about digital infrastructure, rail transit, scenery equipment, UHV and other sectors.
Market performance in one week
On Friday, April 15, 2022, as of the closing, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.25% to close at 321124 points, the Shenzhen composite index fell 2.60% and the gem index fell 4.26%. In terms of sectors, coal rose 5.02%, food and beverage rose 4.40%, power equipment fell 7.37%, communications fell 6.39%, communications fell 5.67% and architectural decoration fell 5.48%. Among the relevant sectors of the infrastructure industry, transportation rose 1.27%, ordinary steel rose 0.46%, glass fiber fell 7.50%, wind power equipment fell 7.91% and engineering consulting services fell 8.25%.
Industry dynamics
On April 10, the opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on accelerating the construction of a national unified market was issued. The opinions mentioned the construction of a modern circulation network. Accelerate the construction of new commercial and trade infrastructure and form a new mode of commercial and trade integration. Promote the construction of the national logistics hub network, vigorously develop multimodal transport, and promote the standardized transportation mode of pallet and board. Vigorously develop third-party logistics, support the construction of digital third-party logistics delivery platform, promote the innovation of technology and business model of third-party logistics industry, cultivate a number of digital platform enterprises and supply chain enterprises with global influence, and promote the cost reduction and efficiency increase of logistics in the whole society. Strengthen the construction of emergency logistics system, improve the fortification level and disaster bearing capacity of transportation facilities and logistics stations in areas with high disaster risk, and actively prevent the risk of shortage of food, energy and other important products. Improve the national comprehensive three-dimensional transportation network, promote the construction of multi-level integrated transportation hubs, and promote the cross regional integrated development of transportation facilities. Establish and improve urban-rural integration, regional connectivity, safe and efficient telecommunications, energy and other infrastructure networks. (China government website)
Recently, Anhui Energy Bureau issued the notice on carrying out the competitive allocation of grid connection scale of the first batch of wind power and photovoltaic power generation projects in 2022. The document shows that the grid connection scale of the competitive configuration of the photovoltaic power generation project is 2gw, and the grid connection scale of the competitive configuration of the wind power project is 1GW. The declared project needs to be equipped with energy storage. From the appendix, the energy storage ratio has become a key assessment item. The letter of commitment requires the allocation of 2-hour energy storage, and the application enterprises that implement market-oriented conditions for the leased or self built electrochemical energy storage power stations (excluding the supporting energy storage power stations approved for wind power projects in 2018 and before) will add 0.1 point to the application enterprises that rent or self built electrochemical energy storage power stations for every 10000 kWh and are connected to the grid before the comprehensive review. If the comprehensive score is the same, the projects with high proportion of energy storage installed capacity configuration will be given priority. (Polaris wind power network)
On April 12, the State Council Information Office held a regular policy briefing of the State Council. Vice Minister of Finance Xu Hongcai introduced the situation of accelerating the issuance and use of government bonds: in December last year, the Ministry of Finance issued 1.46 trillion yuan of new special bonds in 2022 in advance, three months earlier than last year. By the end of March 2022, 1.25 trillion yuan had been issued, accounting for 86% of the amount issued in advance, an increase of 1.23 trillion yuan over last year. Among them, 11 provinces (cities) including Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Heilongjiang, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong, Guangdong, Guangxi, Sichuan and Gansu have all completed the issuance of quotas in advance, and some provinces have also completed most of them. Among the special bonds that have been issued, 415.7 billion yuan have been issued to support infrastructure in municipal and industrial parks, 231.6 billion yuan for transportation infrastructure, 225.1 billion yuan for social undertakings, 2016 billion yuan for affordable housing projects, 100.4 billion yuan for agriculture, forestry and water conservancy, 46.8 billion yuan for ecological environmental protection, and 25.1 billion yuan for logistics infrastructure such as energy and urban-rural cold chain. (website of the state information office)
On April 13, the Ministry of industry and information technology issued the 2022 work plan of the industrial Internet special working group, which mentioned that the annual objectives and achievements include: Building 10 5g fully connected factory benchmarks; Promote the construction of professional service platform in key industries and enhance the public service capacity of "5g + industrial Internet" in the industry, such as testing, verification, evaluation and monitoring; Continue to organize special projects for new infrastructure construction and accelerate the development of 5g network and other new infrastructure; Build a secondary node of energy industry identity resolution based on trusted blockchain, build a trusted blockchain integrated service infrastructure, and build an energy industry identity resolution service system; Basically completed the construction of regional sub centers of national industrial Internet big data centers in Chongqing, Shandong, Zhejiang, Liaoning, Jiangsu and Guangdong; Build the energy industry internet into a national energy industry big data sub center. (website of the Ministry of industry and information technology)
On April 15, China Railway Group Limited(601390) signed a strategic cooperation agreement with China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) Academy of Sciences Co., Ltd. According to the agreement, the two sides have determined the first batch of key cooperation contents, and will carry out comprehensive cooperation in the fields of standard internationalization, greening, bimbase, intelligent manufacturing and construction, achievement transformation and promotion, and urban renewal, so as to realize complementary advantages and win-win cooperation. (Securities Times)
Company dynamics
Huaming Power Equipment Co.Ltd(002270) ( Huaming Power Equipment Co.Ltd(002270) ): the company expects to realize the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company from January to March 2022 from 60 million yuan to 75 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 40.46% to 75.58%. The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company after deducting non recurring profits and losses was 58.5 million yuan to 73.5 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 45.06% to 82.25%.
Dongfang Electric Corporation Limited(600875) ( Dongfang Electric Corporation Limited(600875) ): it is estimated that from January to March 2022, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies will reach 886 million yuan to 949 million yuan, an increase of 253 million yuan to 316 million yuan compared with the same period of last year, an increase of 40% to 50% year-on-year. It is estimated that the total revenue from January to March 2022 will be 13.6 billion yuan to 14.1 billion yuan, an increase of 25% to 30% year-on-year compared with the same period of last year.
Sichuan Road & Bridge Co.Ltd(600039) ( Sichuan Road & Bridge Co.Ltd(600039) ): the company disclosed the main business data in the first quarter of 2022. In the first quarter, the number of bid winning projects totaled 38, and the amount of bid winning projects was 14.376 billion yuan, an increase of 29% year-on-year.
Among them, there are 19 bid winning projects in infrastructure projects, with a bid winning project amount of 12.54 billion yuan, accounting for 87.2% of the total bid winning project amount.
Xinjiang Communications Construction Group Co.Ltd(002941) ( Xinjiang Communications Construction Group Co.Ltd(002941) ): the company expects the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company from January to March 2022 to be 3.2 million to 4.8 million, an increase of 113.24% to 119.86% over the same period of the previous year. After deducting non recurring profits and losses, the loss was 24-16 million yuan, an increase of 24.79% - 49.86% over the same period of the previous year. Basic earnings per share: 0.0050 yuan / share -0.0074 yuan / share. The main reason for the increase of operating performance over the same period of last year is that the company's receivables received better in the first quarter and the reversal amount of bad debt reserves increased significantly over the same period of last year.
Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) ( Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) ): the company expects the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company from January to March 2022 to be 70 million yuan to 780 million yuan, an increase of 346.32% to 397.33% over the same period of the previous year. The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non recurring profits and losses was 650 million yuan to 730 million yuan, an increase of 995.73% to 113059% over the same period of last year.
Risk warning: government expenditure is less than expected; The price rise of raw materials exceeded expectations; The epidemic situation has been repeated on a large scale.
