Event overview:
The Bureau of statistics released the data of social zero and real estate from January to March: 1) in terms of social zero, the growth rate of social zero, furniture, cultural and office supplies, cosmetics, gold and silver jewelry and online social zero from January to march was + 3.3%, - 7.1%, + 10.6%, + 1.8%, + 7.6% and + 6.6% respectively year-on-year; In March, the growth rates of social zero, furniture, cultural office supplies, cosmetics, gold, silver and jewelry and online social zero were - 3.5%, - 8.8%, + 9.8%, - 6.3%, - 17.9% and + 0.5% respectively year-on-year. 2) In terms of real estate, from January to March, the newly started area, completed area, sales area and investment in real estate development in China were - 20.3%, - 11.3%, - 18.6% and + 0.7% respectively year-on-year; In March, the newly started area, completed area, sales area and investment in real estate development in China were - 25.1%, - 15.3%, - 23.2% and - 2.4% respectively year-on-year.
Analysis and judgment:
Household: the completed amount of development investment increased year-on-year, and the growth rate of household retail decreased. Retail end: from January to March, the new construction, completion and sales area of residential buildings decreased under policy regulation. From January to March, the newly started area, completed area, sales area and investment in real estate development in China were - 20.3%, - 11.3%, - 18.6% and + 0.7% year-on-year respectively, with a growth rate of - 5.4pct, - 1.7pct, - 4.9pct and - 3.0pct respectively compared with January to February of 22 years. Affected by the debt pressure of real estate enterprises, cash flow pressure, credit risk and the tightening of the real estate market, the data of new construction, completion and sales of real estate from January to March decreased year-on-year; Since 2022, the favorable signals of various real estate policies have been continuous, and the warm wind in the real estate market has been blowing frequently. With the joint efforts of all parties, we have continued to stabilize the land price, house price and expectation, the operation of the real estate market has undergone positive changes, and the downward trend of real estate has slowed down. According to the prediction of ovicloud, the newly started residential area in 22 years is conservatively estimated to be about 1.46 billion M2 (about 12 million units) as the same as that in 21 years. Considering market demand and other comprehensive upward factors, it is estimated that the newly started residential area will be 1.5-1.55 billion M2 (about 12.5-13 million units), providing more protection for China's people's livelihood. From the perspective of furniture retail, the retail sales of furniture above the quota from January to March were - 7.1% year-on-year. Affected by the high base in the same period last year and the recent epidemic, the growth rate of furniture retail decreased.
Project side: according to ovicloud, from January to February 2022, the number of newly opened commercial residential hardbound projects / rooms was 207 / 149000 units respectively, with a year-on-year increase of - 48.8% / - 58.4%. In February 2022, the hardbound project of commercial housing opened. Based on the analysis of the size structure of the number of rooms, it is mainly distributed in East China and second tier cities, accounting for 41.5% and 62.3%. Guangzhou, Xi'an and Xuzhou became the top three cities in China in terms of opening scale in February. In the short term, the scale of hardbound houses has decreased, which is mainly affected by the policies of the real estate market and the shortage of funds of real estate companies; In the medium and long term, driven by national policies, market environment, the new hardcover policy and other factors, the fine decoration market will continue to rise, and the prospect is promising; It is estimated that the total scale will continue to grow in 2022, about 3.5-4 million units, and the penetration rate will further increase to about 40%. During 20232024, the proportion of fine decoration will be more than half. The sustainable development of hardbound housing market will also bring development opportunities for b-end business of household enterprises.
Cosmetics: from January to March, the retail sales of cosmetics increased slightly year-on-year. From January to March, the retail sales of cosmetics increased by + 1.8% year-on-year, compared with - 5.2pct from January to February; The demand for festivals such as the Spring Festival and March 8th women's Day was strong, and the retail sales of cosmetics increased slightly year-on-year. Affected by the scattered epidemic in some regions, the growth rate from January to march was lower than that from January to February. At present, China's cosmetics industry is still in an upward development cycle, benefiting from the dual release of consumer population and customer unit price in the medium and long term, the creation of Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) channels, the continuous release of upgraded consumer demand, and the continuous growth of cosmetics consumption.
Gold, silver and jewelry: it fell significantly in March. From January to March, the retail sales of gold, silver and jewelry increased by + 7.6% year-on-year, benefiting from the improvement of investment preservation demand, driven by the concept of "pleasing oneself" and driven by festivals such as Spring Festival and women's day; In March alone, the retail sales of gold, silver and jewelry were - 17.9% year-on-year, with a growth rate of - 37.4pct compared with that from January to February. The epidemic affected offline consumption scenes and logistics in some regions. The retail sales of gold, silver and jewelry in March alone were higher than that in March, with a double-digit decline.
Cultural office supplies: the growth is bright, and the distribution of epidemic prevention materials is expected to increase. From January to March, the retail sales of cultural office supplies increased by + 10.6% year-on-year, an increase of 43.3% over the same period of 20 years. It is expected to be related to the recent increase in the distribution of epidemic prevention materials. In the medium and long term, China's cultural office supplies market is in a new situation of consumption upgrading. The consumption terminals of cultural office supplies gradually show changes such as chain characteristics, professional management, improvement of anti risk ability, improvement of profitability and so on.
Online retail: online retail continues to grow, making a significant contribution to the overall society. Online retail sales from January to March were + 6.6% year-on-year; In March alone, online retail sales in March increased by 0.5% over the same period in 21 years. From January to March, online retail accounted for 27.7% of the total social zero, which increased by 1.4pct compared with that from January to February. The epidemic situation was repeated, and the online consumer behavior gradually migrated. The impact of online channels on the overall social zero was still obvious.
Investment suggestions:
In the household sector, in the short term, although the weak real estate data and the rising cost of raw materials have brought some repression, the industry will maintain steady growth in the medium and long term with the release of demand for second-hand housing, improved housing and affordable housing, and the industry attribute will gradually shift from the post cyclical attribute of real estate to the consumption attribute. Leading enterprises have outstanding advantages in brand, channel, product and production capacity, continue to seize the market share of small and medium-sized enterprises, and their performance growth is still outstanding in the real estate chain. It is recommended that Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ; In the cultural office supplies sector, the sunshine procurement policy drives the rapid development of the centralized purchase industry of office stationery. It is recommended that the retail end has Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) , which has the channel moat, cultural and creative products to improve profitability, and the rapid development of new business kelip and new retail business; The cosmetics sector has benefited from the "beauty economy". China's cosmetics industry maintains a high outlook and has great prospects for domestic products. It is expected to continue to increase its share through multi product, multi category and multi brand strategy. It is recommended that Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) , Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) .
Risk tips
The price of raw materials fluctuated sharply, the demand growth was less than expected, and the industry competition intensified.
