The National Bureau of statistics released the retail sales data of social consumer goods in March 2022. In March, the total social retail sales decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, of which the year-on-year growth rate of catering revenue turned negative, the retail sales of grain and oil, food and beverage achieved double-digit growth, and the retail sales of tobacco and alcohol slowed down.
In March 2022, the total amount of social zero was – 3.5% year-on-year, the growth rate of catering revenue turned negative, and the growth rate of grain, oil and food increased by double digits. (1) Total social zero: in March, the total social zero was – 3.5% year-on-year, with a growth rate of – 37.7pct year-on-year and – 10.2pct month on month; Excluding price factors, the actual total social zero in March was – 6.0% year-on-year, with a year-on-year growth rate of -39.0pct and a month on month growth rate of -10.9pct. (2) Catering consumption: Catering revenue was – 16.4% year-on-year, with a growth rate of – 108 PCT year-on-year and – 25.3 PCT month on month; The catering revenue of Enterprises above designated size was – 15.6% year-on-year, with a growth rate of – 130.8pct year-on-year and – 25.7pct month on month. In March, the epidemic situation in China was sporadic, the number of newly confirmed cases increased rapidly, and the aggregate consumption decreased, which had a great adverse impact on catering. (3) Food and beverage consumption: the retail sales of tobacco and alcohol increased by + 7.2% year-on-year, with a growth rate of – 40.2pct year-on-year and – 6.4pct month on month. The epidemic has a certain impact on terminal demand. Retail sales of grain, oil and food increased by + 12.5% year-on-year, with a growth rate of + 4.2pct year-on-year and + 4.6pct month on month. The growth rate of retail sales of grain, oil and food increased month on month. We judge that it is related to the hoarding emotion stimulated by the epidemic and the low base. Retail sales of beverages increased by + 12.6% year-on-year, with a growth rate of – 20.7pct year-on-year and + 1.2pct month on month, maintaining a high outlook.
In the first quarter of 2022, the total social retail sales increased by + 3.3% year-on-year, the catering revenue increased slightly year-on-year, and the retail sales of tobacco, alcohol and beverages achieved double-digit growth. The cumulative catering revenue in the first quarter was + 0.5% year-on-year (with a year-on-year growth rate of – 75.3pct), which was the same as that in the same period in 2019. The retail sales of tobacco and alcohol increased by + 11.8% (year-on-year growth rate of – 33.1pct), which was + 30.8% compared with the same period in 2019. The three-year compound growth rate of retail sales of tobacco and alcohol was much higher than the catering data. We judged that the main reasons were the increase in gift demand and the upgrading of product structure. The retail sales of grain, oil and food increased by + 9.3% (with a year-on-year growth rate of – 0.7pct), which was + 26.2% compared with the same period in 2019. The consumption rigidity was strong and was less affected by the epidemic. Retail sales of beverages increased by + 11.8% year-on-year (with a year-on-year growth rate of – 23.9pct), which was + 48.5% compared with the same period in 2019, and the prosperity was high.
The latest ideas: 1, Baijiu, the growth of performance is high certainty, the spread of the disease led to the recent callback, the long-term layout of the time came. (1) the epidemic has a great impact on the demand for Baijiu in March. However, the 1 quarter maintained a relatively high boom. March is the off-season of consumption, accounting for a low proportion in the first quarter. At the same time, the manufacturer’s shipments are launched as planned. Therefore, the downward revision range of the first quarterly report is expected to be small, and the overall revenue is expected to increase by about 20%. Considering that the valuation has dropped to a reasonable level, the demand can be replenished after the epidemic is alleviated, and high-quality varieties can be actively distributed in the second quarter. (2) Focus on recommending deterministic growth varieties and improved undervalued varieties, including Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , etc. 2. For food, pay attention to the varieties benefiting from the epidemic and the varieties that need to be supplemented after the epidemic, and pay attention to the performance elasticity after the price increase in the second half of the year. (1) High end white milk and low-temperature white milk are favored by consumers due to their nutritional health. The change of consumption habits will promote these categories to maintain high growth. In the short term, there are many leading opportunities for dairy products, the competition pattern continues to improve, and the performance release power is strong. (2) Quick frozen food, pay attention to the growth opportunities of subdivided tracks, such as Guangzhou style quick frozen food. (3) Snack food, companies will continue to improve in 2022. (4) Condiments and terminal price increases have been completed successively, and it is expected to show a certain performance flexibility in the second half of the year. (5) Focus on He Bei Cheng De Lolo Company Limited(000848) , Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , and pay attention to Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) .
Risk warning. The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations, the price fluctuation of raw materials and food safety problems.
