\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 882 Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) )
Event: the company disclosed that in the first quarterly report of 2022, the operating revenue / net profit attributable to parent company / net profit deducted from non attributable to parent company was 1.286/0.74/0.69 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 35.24% / 129.55% / 118.13%, and the performance was at the central level of the previous forecast.
By category, 2022q1 cheese / liquid milk / trade accounted for + 49.6% / – 16.7% / + 4.1% year-on-year respectively, cheese accounted for 81.2%, increased by 7.8p CT year-on-year, liquid milk and trade accounted for 6.9% and 11.9% respectively, decreased by 4.3p CT and 3.6p CT year-on-year. To further optimize the structure of cheese and cheese products, focus on the promotion of new cheese products such as cheese chips and cheese bars to 2027, and further improve the proportion of new cheese dealers such as cheese chips and cheese bars, so as to further improve the market structure of cheese and cheese bars. In terms of subregions, in 2022q1, the North / middle / south area increased by + 44.1% / + 9.9% / 62.6% year-on-year, and the south area increased by 3.6p CT to 21.4% year-on-year, with balanced development nationwide. Looking forward to the whole year, as the epidemic situation is gradually controlled, the production and sales of the company are restored, and it is expected to maintain a high growth rate.
The gross sales gap expanded and the profitability continued to improve: the gross profit margin in 2022q1 was 38.82%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.14pct, mainly due to the increase in the proportion of cheese business and the company’s introduction of upgraded products with higher cheese content. In 2022q1, the sales expense rate was 24.81%, with a year-on-year rate of -1.18pct. The company maintained a large marketing and advertising efforts. On the basis of the continuous expansion of revenue scale, the sales expense rate decreased. The net interest rate of 2022q 1 was 5.72%, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.35%. The profitability maintained a good trend with the iterative upgrading of products, the strengthening of scale effect and the improvement of cost-effectiveness ratio.
Actively promote innovation and constantly consolidate the leading position of cheese: the company plans to start the nutritional breakfast project this year, launch a variety of products such as high-end cheese slices, fit the breakfast scene, constantly enrich the family table series, and tap new potential categories on the basis of large single products of constant and low temperature cheese sticks. According to the data of Kaidu, in 2021, Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) ranked first in the industry with a market share of 30.8%. Cheese has strong plasticity, diverse product forms and rich reserves of new products. In the future, the company will continue to expand orderly through channels, hold high and fight high to seize the minds of consumers, continue to realize and consolidate the brand awareness of Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) = cheese and strengthen the brand moat.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the company’s EPS in 2022, 2023 and 2024 will be 0.83, 1.41 and 2.19 respectively, and the six-month target price will be 45.12 yuan, corresponding to 32xpe in 2023.
Risk warning: industry competition intensifies; New product promotion is less than expected
