\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 51 Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) )
Event: on April 17, the company announced that Reliance Industries Limited Maxwell technology PTE Ltd (Singapore Maiwei) purchased 8 whole hjt lines, totaling 4.8gw. The total purchase amount exceeded 50% of the company’s revenue in 2021 (revenue of RMB 3.095 billion in 2021), but did not reach 100%.
Core view: as a domestic leading enterprise of hjt equipment, Maiwei has won large overseas orders, providing a strong guarantee for future performance growth. From a market perspective, the hjt route has a large overseas volume and further commercialization process, helping to improve the overseas localized photovoltaic manufacturing capacity; From the perspective of customers, in order to deepen the cooperative relationship with important overseas customers and establish the sea demonstration benchmark of domestic hjt equipment, the scale of overseas orders of the company is expected to further increase in the future. From the perspective of revenue recognition, newly signed orders are expected to contribute revenue after 2023 and provide guarantee for future performance growth. The company has been deeply engaged in the direction of hjt. Up to now, the public bidding market share of hjt core equipment has exceeded 70%, and the leading position is significant. In 2022, the company has entered the hjt order revenue confirmation period (delivered in 2021), and will enter a stable rhythm of synchronous execution of new orders, equipment delivery and revenue confirmation, injecting long-term power into performance growth.
Deepen cooperation with overseas major customers and build an international demonstration benchmark for domestic hjt equipment to go to sea. The scale of overseas orders of the company is expected to continue to grow: Reliance Industries is the largest listed company in India with a market value of about US $225.9 billion. According to wind data, its main business is diversified, including petrochemical, natural gas, retail, telecommunications and media. In fiscal 2020, its operating revenue is US $62.912 billion and its profit is US $6.619 billion, Strong financial strength. At the end of 2021, its wholly-owned subsidiary reliance new energy solar (rnes) acquired 100% equity of rec for us $771 million to deeply lay out Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) photovoltaic manufacturing field. Through the cooperation process between Maiwei and rec, we believe that
The cooperation between the two companies continued to deepen:
① in 2019, REC built a 600MW heterojunction battery production line in Singapore phase I, using Maiwei screen printing equipment and meyerberg’s PECVD and PVD;
② in 2021, after long-term investigation and test, the 400MW of rec Singapore phase II selects Mai as the third generation hjt whole line equipment, adopts 210 half piece technology, and the design capacity is about 11200 half pieces / hour, and the domestic whole line realizes the first sea going;
③ in 2022, REC’s parent company purchased 4.8gw of the whole line order, which reflects its recognition of Maiwei’s high coordination and the reliability of the whole line equipment, and is conducive to establishing Maiwei’s benchmark position in the International Photovoltaic manufacturing field. With the accelerated improvement of localized photovoltaic cell manufacturing capacity in the international market, Maiwei’s overseas order scale is expected to further expand.
The hjt route has a large overseas volume and further commercialization process: according to solarzoom, REC plans to reach 15gw heterojunction capacity in 2023, including 10GW in India and 5GW in Singapore. At the end of 2021, REC has issued a bidding invitation for India’s 4gw + Singapore’s 1.8gw. We expect that this 4.8gw order belongs to India’s planned capacity, and the subsequent capacity bidding in Singapore is expected to be implemented in the first half of this year. Overseas photovoltaic manufacturing giants are optimistic about the direction of hjt and increase the layout capacity. With the acceleration of the commercialization of hjt, the company, as the leader of the whole line equipment, is expected to continue to benefit.
Mai is deeply engaged in hjt, and the bidding market share of core equipment exceeds 70%, with a significant leading position: since the beginning of 2021, Mai has obtained orders for PECVD, including Tongwei Jintang, Guangdong Golden Glass Technologies Limited(300093) , Huasheng phase II, Aikang Taixing, REC Singapore, Mingyang phase I and reliance India. Up to now, the bidding scale of hjt is about 12.8gw, of which PECVD of the company’s core equipment has obtained about 10GW, accounting for 78% of the bidding market, The whole line integration ability of the company has been recognized by the market. In the early stage of hjt commercialization, the company assisted the manufacturing end in rapid production, actively cooperated with process optimization, participated in the construction of industrial chain ecology, and accelerated the mass production of hjt through cost reduction and efficiency increase.
Steady progress has been made in the fixed increase project to ensure the delivery capacity of orders in the future and maintain the first mover advantage: the company has completed Guangdong Golden Glass Technologies Limited(300093) order delivery, and customers have successfully entered the stage of streaming production; Other orders in 2021 include Huasheng, Mingyang, REC, Aikang, etc., which are expected to be delivered by the end of June 2022, and the company is in full production as a whole. In the future, with the accelerated commercialization of hjt, in order to ensure the delivery capacity, the company has made a forward-looking layout to break through the capacity bottleneck and maintain its first mover advantage. According to the prospectus of the company’s fixed increase project, the 2.8 billion fixed increase investment project is planned to produce 40 sets of PECVD, PVD and automation equipment each, and is expected to achieve an output value of 6 billion after reaching the production capacity. At present, phase I land has been approved for construction and has entered the construction stage. It is expected to be put into operation at the end of this year and the beginning of next year.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 4.32 billion yuan, 6.20 billion yuan and 8.9 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 39.4%, 43.7% and 43.5% respectively, and the net profit will be 856 million yuan, 1.258 billion yuan and 1.792 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 33.2%, 46.9% and 42.4% respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 65, 44 and 31 times respectively; Maintain the investment rating of “Buy-A”, and the six-month target price is 385 yuan, which is equivalent to 37 times the dynamic P / E ratio in 2024.
Risk warning: the new downstream installed capacity is less than expected; The commercialization progress of hjt is less than expected; Competition in the equipment industry has intensified.
