\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 613 Beijing United Information Technology Co.Ltd(603613) )
Event: the company released an annual report, with revenue of 37.23 billion yuan, an increase of 117%, net profit attributable to the parent company of 578 million yuan, an increase of 90.0%, deduction of non net profit of 531 million yuan, an increase of 98.6%, and operating cash flow of 271 million yuan, a decrease of 65.1%. 21q4 company’s income, net profit attributable to parent company and net profit deducted from non parent company increased by 93.0%, 90.7% and 117.5% respectively.
The e-commerce business of industrial products continues to maintain triple-digit growth, and the stabilization of gross profit margin is a positive signal. The company’s e-commerce business of industrial products grew rapidly, with related business revenue of 37.1 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 117.5%. The gross profit margin is basically the same as last year, changing the downward trend in the past few years. In the performance forecast of 22q1, the growth rate of revenue and profit is close. We believe that with the expansion of Duoduo platform, the gross profit margin has entered a stable range.
Tu Duoduo still maintained rapid growth, and the scale of the new platform increased more significantly. Tu Duoduo has the largest scale, but still maintains a growth rate of 95.7%; Wei Duoduo and Bo Duoduo increased by 151.5% and 109.8%; A lot of paper, fertilizer, grain and oil have been set up in the past 20 years. The revenue has increased by 127%, 209.8% and 336.2% respectively. The revenue has exceeded 500 million yuan, 2.3 billion yuan and 2.5 billion yuan respectively. Moreover, the gross profit margins of the three new platforms have increased by 0.12 PCT, 0.27 PCT and 1.1 PCT respectively, narrowing the gap with the gross profit margins of mature platforms. We believe that this will also support the stability of the overall gross profit margin of the company in the future.
The overall permeability is still low, and there is much room for improvement in the future. According to the disclosure of the company’s annual report, the penetration rate of tudo, the earliest and largest company, in the industries it covers is only 2.09%, while the penetration rate of other platforms is between 0.29% and 1.09%, and the overall penetration rate of the company’s platform is only 1.02%. In the past 21 years, the number of transaction users increased by 63.4% to 13500, and the average income of a single customer increased by 33.1% to 2757000 yuan. With the continuous recognition of the advantages of digital procurement and the formation and strengthening of trading habits, we believe that the overall penetration rate of the company still has great room for improvement.
The operation indicators continue to maintain a high level, and we expect the cloud factory to accelerate. The business cycle of the company in 2021 is 2.93 days, which continues to decline compared with 2020. The days of inventory turnover increased slightly and the cash flow decreased. Due to the increase of prepayment in order to ensure the order delivery of double ten e-commerce Festival and prepare 22q1 orders, the company still maintained a healthy level. The growth of sales and management expenses is lower than that of revenue; R & D expenses increased by 128.1%, which is a positive reserve for the company’s cloud factory and technology strategy. We believe that cloud factory is expected to further strengthen the depth of cooperation with suppliers, contribute to the expansion of e-commerce transaction scale and the formation of new business models, and look forward to the acceleration of the implementation of cloud factory.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We have slightly raised our profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years will be 1.05 billion / 1.755 billion / 2.930 billion (originally predicted that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-23 years will be 1.023 billion / 1.705 billion). DCF valuation method is adopted. The target price is 141.68 yuan and the target market value is 49 billion yuan, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tips
The business development of the new e-commerce platform is less than expected, the macro-economy is depressed, and the industry competition is intensified
