\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 873 Guiyang Xintian Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002873) )
Since its establishment 27 years ago, the company has focused on the research and development of new Chinese patent drugs. It is a national high-tech enterprise integrating R & D, production and sales. At present, the company has 32 drug production approvals, including 10 varieties of national medical insurance catalogue, 1 variety of national essential drugs catalogue, 12 varieties of over-the-counter drugs (OTC) and 12 exclusive varieties. The company's products cover a wide range of fields and gradually develop small molecular drugs. At present, it has three main R & D platforms: Guiyang technology center, Haitian medicine and Shuofeng medicine, a wholly-owned subsidiary. It undertakes the R & D of traditional Chinese medicine formula particles, new indications of mass-produced products, new traditional Chinese medicine drugs and ancient classic prescriptions respectively. It has eight dosage form production lines and two production lines of traditional Chinese medicine decoction pieces, line a and line B.
The company has a leading market position in the field of gynecology. In 2019, the company ranked third in the gynaecological drug enterprises of Chinese patent medicine in the terminal of public medical institutions in China, with a market share of 3.88%. Kuntai Capsule is one of the leading products of Guiyang Xintian Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002873) and approved by CFDA. It can be used to treat menopausal syndrome and other related symptoms caused by ovarian function decline. In 2020, the terminal gynecological Chinese patent medicine products of public medical institutions in China ranked third, with a market share of 2.97%, and was included in the "2020 list of Chinese patent medicine brands with clinical value". In recent years, the overall sales of Kuntai Capsule has shown an upward trend. The good therapeutic effect and popularity in the drug market make Kuntai Capsule a fist product of Guiyang Xintian Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002873) and the peak sales is expected to reach 1.5 billion. In addition, the sales revenue of Sophora flavescens gel and Prunella vulgaris oral liquid increased significantly in 2021, which further laid the leading position in the field.
The market demand for urinary system drugs is large, the market share of Chinese patent medicine products increases year by year, and the company's flagship products maintain a high growth rate. In 2015, the market scale of Chinese patent medicine for urinary tract infection in China reached 5.529 billion yuan. From 2015 to 2017, the proportion of Chinese patent medicine in the market increased from 59.82% to 71.13%. The company's flagship product in the urinary system is Ningbitai Capsule. Ningbitai belongs to the exclusive product of the company. By comparing the test group taking antibiotics alone and combined with Ningbitai Capsule, it is confirmed that Ningbitai Capsule can not only reduce the inflammation of urinary tract infection, but also have a certain immunomodulatory effect; At the same time, Ningbitai Capsule can improve female urinary tract infection, male type III prostatitis and semen non liquefaction. Ningbitai Capsule is favored by doctors and patients. In 2021, the sales volume exceeded 200 million, with a growth rate of more than 30%. The future sales peak is expected to reach 1.068 billion yuan, becoming the second largest variety of Guiyang Xintian Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002873) in the future.
Pay attention to the construction of R & D system to ensure the smooth progress of the company's projects. With continuous development and optimization, the company has formed the "two three four" R & D pattern, improved the R & D production transformation system, achieved the seamless connection between the R & D of new traditional Chinese medicine in the laboratory and the industrial production, and shortened the speed of products from R & D to marketing. Secondly, the R & D system also covers all stages from the discovery, R & D, production to post marketing re evaluation of new traditional Chinese medicine, which is in line with the requirements of national drug laws and regulations and the R & D law of traditional Chinese medicine, Ensure the smooth development of the company's R & D projects The research and development requirement of Guiyang Xintian Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002873) is "generation generation, reserve generation and development generation". At present, the company has three new Chinese medicine products, and has completed three phase clinical trials, namely, long Cen pelvic cavity Shu granule, Ku Er Jie Yin gel and "Er Yu Tong Granule".
Profit forecast and investment rating of the company: we expect the net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 to be 134 million yuan, 178 million yuan and 236 million yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 0.82, 1.09 and 1.44 yuan respectively. The current share price corresponds to the PE value from 2022 to 2024, which is 22, 16 and 12 times respectively. As the importance of traditional Chinese medicine continues to rise, as an enterprise taking its own proprietary Chinese medicine products as its advantages in the three fields of Gynecology, urinary system and heat clearing and detoxification, we believe that the market share of the company's leading products is expected to continue to rise. We are optimistic that the company has made breakthroughs in the research, development and promotion of new traditional Chinese medicine with its mature R & D and sales system, and given a "recommended" rating for the first time.
Risk warning: the growth rate of main product revenue is lower than expected, and the R & D results of new Chinese medicine are lower than expected.
