\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 809 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) )
Looking back on the past, after the ups and downs of Fenjiu at the end of the 20th century, Fenjiu has started all-round reform from the beginning of the 21st century, entered the recovery and adjustment period, realized the speed of development and returned from reorganization. Baijiu Baijiu, the earliest court wine in history, can be traced back to the northern and Southern Dynasties. It is one of the four famous liquor in China. It has three famous brands, namely Fen, bamboo leaf and Xinghuacun. It is a typical representative of China’s Qingxiang liquor and leads the development of the whole fragrance. Since the beginning of the 21st century, the company has actively reformed its sales strategy, reorganized its product structure, built a cultural brand and actively responded to market changes; Since 2017, under the clear product strategy, Shanxi economy and Baijiu recovery have led to the release of company performance. At present, the revenue of the second high-end liquor enterprises is outstanding. On the management level, the new chairman Yuan Qingmao has rich management experience and has clear planning strategy for Fen Fen (the first line of Baijiu liquor in the late 14th Five-Year).
The product matrix is mature and the price band layout is perfect. Blue and white play high and high, and the strategic nationalization process of Bofen + blue and white is quite effective. Grasp the blue and white, strengthen the waist and stabilize the glass Fen. Qinghua 20 has obvious brand and channel advantages. Qinghua 30 revival version has high investment, strengthens brand construction and promotes consumer cultivation. We expect that the proportion of Qinghua series revenue is expected to reach 50% at the end of the 14th five year plan; Panama series, combing the price control mode, screening the core market integration force, which is expected to increase by 25% in 2022 and strengthen the development of waist products; Zhuyeqing liquor has completed the “123” great health industrial structure and is expected to accelerate its growth in the future. As a large single product of Fen Liquor, Bofen has a very good consumer base and occupies the low-end price band.
Steady progress was made in the nationwide layout. In 2020, the company adjusted its layout strategy to “1357 + 10”. On the basis of 31 provinces and regions, the company established 10 directly under the management areas including Handan, Qingdao and Shenzhen, strengthened market expansion in the south of the Yangtze River, and promoted steady breakthroughs in the markets of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Anhui and Guangdong. At the same time, we will accelerate the construction of marketing informatization, fully launch the channel dynamic marketing system, Fenxiang conference system and Fenjiu anti-counterfeiting digital verification system, greatly improve the level of refined marketing management, accelerate the construction of online channels, promote the innovation of new online sales modes such as live broadcasting and goods, and develop the official flagship stores of Jingdong and tmall Fenjiu.
Looking forward to the future, through continuous internal reform and optimization and external assistance, Fenjiu is going through the recovery, growth and adjustment stage of fluctuation. Fenjiu is showing its vigorous and powerful development momentum. With the support of its great potential brand value and fine marketing strategy, Fenjiu has formulated the three-stage plan of the “14th Five Year Plan” and equipped it with the escort of the “133238” marketing operation plan.
Investment suggestion: in 2021, the main financial data performed brilliantly, the number of dealers increased and opened up the market, the expansion outside the province accelerated, the gross profit margin increased and superimposed excellent period cost control. The main operating data in the first quarter of 2022 exceeded the expectation and the 14th five year plan, and the revenue and profit are expected to further increase. Therefore, we expect the company’s revenue from 2021 to 2023 to be 199.712695133685 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 42.75% / 34.95% / 24.98%, The net profit was 5.314/76.92/10.387 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 72.56% / 44.76% / 35.03% and EPS of 4.36/6.30/8.51 yuan / share. According to the 22-year average market sales rate of comparable companies, considering the management and marginal improvement of the company, and the upward development trend of Fen Liquor is still obvious, the company was given 14 times PS in 22 years and the target price is 309 yuan to maintain the “buy” rating of the company.
Risk tips: macroeconomic downturn, food safety risks, expansion outside the province fails to meet expectations, competitive products increase market investment, intensify competition, repeated epidemics, etc.
