\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 623 Changzhou Almaden Co.Ltd(002623) )
Key investment points
The sales volume of photovoltaic glass increased significantly, and the downward price affected the profit space
During the reporting period, the company's photovoltaic glass business achieved an operating revenue of 1.743 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%, a gross profit margin of 8.25%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.06 PCT, and a photovoltaic glass sales of 72.097 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 36.6%. During the reporting period, the continuous operation of the company's new deep-processing production line in Fengyang and the stable supply of original glass for Fengyang Silicon Valley kilns led to a significant increase in the company's photovoltaic glass sales. At the same time, due to the gradual release of new photovoltaic glass production capacity in the industry, the supply increased, resulting in a sharp decline in the price of photovoltaic glass. In addition, the new deep-processing production line in Fengyang was in the period of capacity climbing during the reporting period, The output and yield of photovoltaic glass did not meet the expectations, which had a certain impact on the profitability of the product.
The original film assets will be injected soon, opening up the upstream industrial chain and thickening profits
By purchasing the equity of Fengyang Silicon Valley, the company injects the original kiln assets into the listed company, opens up the upstream industrial chain, thickens the profit space, and the gross profit margin is expected to increase significantly. Fengyang Silicon Valley, a subsidiary of the company's group, has three 650T / D original wafer kilns, with a total original wafer capacity of 1950t / D. the company's shipping structure is 1.6mm/2mm thin glass, accounting for more than 80%, which is far higher than the industry average. When the capacity of the original chip is determined, the output of 2.0mm photovoltaic glass is 52% higher than that of 3.2mm. According to the estimation of the company's shipping structure, the annual production capacity of Fengyang Silicon Valley is about 120 million square meters, which matches the company's new deep processing capacity in Fengyang and Changzhou deep processing capacity. The company's annual shipping capacity is about 150 million square meters. With the release of silicon production capacity and the growth of photovoltaic installation demand in 2022, the price of photovoltaic glass has increased recently, and the profit margin of the company will be expanded.
Profit forecast and valuation
The company is a high-quality manufacturer of ultra-thin photovoltaic glass in China. Opening up the link of the original film will effectively increase the profit margin. We expect that from 2022 to 2024, the company will realize operating revenue of RMB 3.707 billion, RMB 3.931 billion and RMB 5.668 billion, net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 231 million, RMB 352 million and RMB 459 million, corresponding EPS of RMB 0.86, RMB 1.31 and RMB 1.71/share respectively, corresponding PE of 25, 17 and 13 times respectively, and be rated as "buy".
Risk tips
Price fluctuation of photovoltaic glass; Less than expected PV installation; The price of raw materials fluctuates.
