\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 51 Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) )
Key investment points
Q1 performance in 2022: 50% year-on-year growth and high profitability; Hjt equipment is expected to become a new growth point of performance
1) quarterly results: benefiting from the confirmation of large-scale production expansion orders, the company achieved a revenue of 830 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 180 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50%.
2) profitability: the gross profit margin is 40.6% and the net profit margin is 20.9%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3pct and 2.4pct. The profitability of the company returns to the level of 2018 (the year when perc silk screen printing starts), and it is expected that the core benefit from the continuous optimization of the company’s cost side + the improvement of supply chain management and control ability.
3) contract liabilities: 2.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 34%. By September 2021, the company’s orders for hjt equipment had reached 1.8 billion (according to the company’s announcement). Superposition recently won another order for 4.8gw heterojunction whole line equipment, and we expect that the contract of hjt equipment in hand will exceed 4 billion yuan. The company has received orders from Huasheng, Guangdong Golden Glass Technologies Limited(300093) , Jiangsu Akcome Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002610) , REC and other hjt equipment, which will become a new growth point of performance in 2022.
4) prepayments: 196million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 120%, which is expected to be mainly due to the increase in prepayments for hjt equipment.
5) R & D Investment: 93 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 91%, accounting for 11.2% of revenue. It is expected that this is mainly due to the increase of the company’s investment in the field of hjt equipment. As the company’s hjt equipment gradually enters the delivery period, the on-site delivery and commissioning personnel will increase.
It has obtained an overseas order for the whole line of 4.8gw heterojunction equipment, with an estimated amount of about 1.9 billion; The technical strength has been recognized by overseas leaders
1) according to the announcement of the company. The company’s wholly-owned subsidiary (Singapore Maiwei) received an order for 4.8gw heterojunction equipment from reliance industries. The total includes: 8 whole line equipment, with a capacity of 600MW / piece.
2) contract amount: more than 50% of the company’s operating revenue in 2021, but less than 100% (Note: the company’s revenue in 2021 is 3.1 billion yuan). If the current value of hjt equipment industry is 400 million yuan / GW, the corresponding amount is estimated to be about 1.9 billion yuan.
3) contracted customer: Reliance Industries is an Indian listed company. In 2021, it invested US $771million to acquire recsolarholdings (Norwegian photovoltaic cell, module and polysilicon manufacturing company, with its operating headquarters in Singapore). Rec has the world’s first hjt mass production project of more than 500MW and is the leader of overseas hjt batteries. It is planned to build 6Gw and 15gw heterojunction battery capacity from 2022 to 2023.
4) strategic significance: the cooperation between the company and rec originated in 2019. Rec Singapore’s 400MW heterojunction battery mass production equipment order was obtained in November 2021. This time, the company won another 4.8gw order for the whole line, which represents that the company’s products have been recognized by international leading enterprises.
5) market space of hjt equipment orders: it is estimated that the market space of hjt equipment orders is expected to exceed 40 billion yuan in 2025, and the CAGR will be 80% from 2020 to 2025. If the net interest rate remains 20% (8 billion net profit), 25 times PE will be given. It is estimated that the reasonable total market value of hjt equipment industry is 200 billion yuan! We judge that the industry’s leading market share is expected to exceed 50%, and the market value is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan in the future.
Profit forecast: optimistic about the company’s strategic position and high growth in the future development of photovoltaic and semiconductor industries. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 880 / 13 / 18 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 37% / 48% / 38%, corresponding to 63 / 43 / 31 times of PE. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the propulsion speed of heterojunction battery does not meet the expectation; Photovoltaic demand is less than expected; The downstream expansion was less than expected.
