\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 048 Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) )
Matters:
The company released its annual report for 2021, with an operating revenue of 284.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.2%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 27.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4% and EPS 2.5% 29 yuan, which is basically consistent with the performance express. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 5.8 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares.
Ping An View:
The performance is stable and the outstanding is still sufficient: the company achieved a revenue of 284.93 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 17.2%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 27.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%. The profit growth rate is lower than the revenue, which is mainly affected by the downward profit margin of real estate projects. The gross profit margin during the period was 26.8%, down 5.8 percentage points from 2020. Contract liabilities at the end of the period increased by 13.8% year-on-year to 416.02 billion yuan, 1.5 times the revenue of the past year, and the outstanding resources are still sufficient. It is planned to complete 42.31 million square meters in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 0.9%.
The sales increased steadily and the deep cultivation achieved remarkable results: the company achieved a sales amount of 534.93 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%; The sales area was 33.33 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%; The average sales price was 16049 yuan / m2, up 8.8% year-on-year. Among them, the total contracted sales in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta exceeded 280 billion, accounting for 53%; There are 17 cities with 10 billion contracts in a single city, an increase of 2 compared with 2020, with a total sales contribution of more than 340 billion yuan. In 2021, 51.55 million square meters of new construction was started, with a year-on-year increase of 11.3%. In 2022, 40.1 million square meters of new construction is planned, with a year-on-year decrease of 22.2%.
Land acquisition remains determined and high-quality resources are reasonably supplemented: the company has 145 new expansion projects in 2021, with a new construction area of 27.22 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 15%, and the total land price is 185.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21%; The sales area ratio and sales amount ratio of land acquisition were 81.7% and 34.7% respectively, 11.8 and 12.1 percentage points lower than that in 2020. The average floor price in 2021 is 6821 yuan / m2, which is 42.5% of the average sales price in the same period, down 7.6 percentage points from 2020. The company focused on improving the expansion quality and resource control. During the period, the new residential goods accounted for 85% and the equity accounted for 72%. The total contribution of “deep cultivation + key cities in the Pearl River Delta” in 2020 is 54%, which is higher than that of “deep cultivation + key cities in the Pearl River Delta” in 2020.
The financing cost continued to decline, and the three red lines “green file” met the standard: the company’s return amount in 2021 was 502 billion yuan, with a return rate of 93.8%, ranking high in the industry, and maintained positive cash flow from operating activities for four consecutive years. The comprehensive financing cost of interest bearing liabilities at the end of the period was 4.46%, a year-on-year decrease of 31bp and continued to decline. At the end of the period, the asset liability ratio, net liability ratio and cash short debt ratio excluding advance receipts were 69.2%, 55.1% and 2.63 times respectively, meeting the green standard of “three red lines”.
Comprehensively promote lean management and continuously expand the real estate Ecology: the company actively optimizes the organizational structure, streamlines the structure at the headquarters level, and strengthens the role of leadership and empowerment; Set up two regional sharing centers in East China and South China to promote regional resource integration with standardization as the starting point; Carry out organizational fission at the regional level, improve market focus, and maintain management flexibility and flattening; Integrate at the industrial level to promote market-oriented development. In terms of real estate ecology, poly property’s management area rose to 465 million square meters and its contract area rose to 656 million square meters, ranking firmly in the forefront of the industry. Poly commercial opened 35 shopping centers, with an opening area of 2.475 million square meters; Poly tavern has opened 20 hotels and conference centers with nearly 5000 guest rooms. At the end of the period, there were 43 apartment rental projects in the battalion commander, covering core cities such as Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hangzhou and Chengdu; The accumulated scale of real estate financial management funds exceeded 170 billion yuan, and SINOSURE fund and poly capital won the “top 10 of China’s most powerful real estate funds in 2021”.
Investment suggestion: maintain the previous forecast and add the expectation of 2024. The company has equity incentive exercise. Calculated according to the latest share capital, the EPS is expected to be 2.40 yuan, 2.48 yuan and 2.56 yuan respectively from 2022 to 2024, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 7.7 times, 7.4 times and 7.2 times respectively. The company’s financial stability and continued financing advantages are expected to improve the spring breeze and expand its leading advantage with the help of short-term policies; Under the guidance of “three stabilities” in the medium and long term, the industry has changed from extensive development to fine operation. With the advantages of operation and control, the market share of the company is also expected to increase steadily and maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk tips: 1) continuous downside risk of profit; 2) The policy care is not as strong as expected, resulting in the extension of the adjustment time and expansion of the property market, and the risk of damage to the company’s operation; 3) The continued deregulation pressure of the real estate market brings down the sales price and high impairment risk in the early stage.
