\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 882 Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) )
Events
On the evening of April 18, 2022, the company released the first quarterly report of 2022: the revenue of 2022q1 was 1.286 billion yuan, an increase of 35.24%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 73.52 million yuan, an increase of 129.55%.
Key investment points
Cheese business grew slightly higher than expected in the first quarter
The company's revenue in 2022q1 was 1.286 billion yuan, an increase of 35.24% and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 73.52 million yuan (considering the impact of amortization of equity incentive), an increase of 129.55%. The revenue and profit of the first quarter report are in the upward position of the previous performance forecast center. The gross profit margin of 2022q1 was 38.82% (with an increase of 0.14pct), which was caused by the optimization of product structure; The net interest rate was 6.31% (increased by 2pct at the same time), which was caused by the sales expense rate (decreased by 1.2pct at the same time), the management expense rate (decreased by 0.1pct at the same time), and the proportion of business taxes and surcharges (increased by 0.2pct at the same time).
In the first quarter, the profit growth continued to be faster than the revenue growth. We believe that there are the following reasons: 1) closely focusing on the four core strategies of "product leading, brand occupying, channel intensive cultivation and management upgrading", the company continued to focus on product leading development, increased investment in brand construction, and continuously promoted channel expansion and deep cultivation; 2) Advertising expenses were in the fourth quarter of last year; 3) The product structure of cheese sector was upgraded, and new normal temperature cheese sticks and cheese slices also contributed. The cheese business increased by 50% in the first quarter.
Cheese sticks continue to make efforts, and the direct marketing channels grow rapidly
In terms of products, the revenue of cheese business in 2022q1 was 1.042 billion yuan, an increase of 50% at the same time, accounting for 81.2% (an increase of 7.8 PCT at the same time); We expect the revenue of cheese sticks to be about 800 million yuan (including over 200 million at normal temperature and about 600 million at low temperature), an increase of about 60% at the same time.
In terms of distribution channels, the revenue of distribution channels in 2022q1 was 925 million yuan, an increase of 30% at the same time; The revenue from direct channels was 94million yuan, an increase of 118% at the same time; The trade revenue was 153 million yuan, an increase of 4% at the same time.
In terms of subregions, the revenue of 2022q1 North District was 636 million yuan, an increase of 44% at the same time; The central region's revenue was 373 million yuan, an increase of 10% at the same time, which was caused by the impact of the epidemic; The revenue of the Southern District was 275 million yuan, an increase of 63% at the same time. By the end of 2022q1, the company had 5690 dealers, with a net increase of 327, and continued to explore the market.
Strengthen the leading mind of cheese and make concerted efforts in the channels of brand products
In 2022, the company will take four major measures to ensure the realization of its objectives: 1) further enrich the cheese product structure and create a cheese category leader. In terms of retail products, the company will focus on promoting the further rapid growth of cheese sticks, "making wide at room temperature and refined at low temperature", forming a relay development in product categories. In the catering cheese series, the company will further strengthen the development and promotion of cheese slices, cream cheese, cream, butter and other products on the basis of the existing advantageous product mozzarella cheese, and constantly enrich the product portfolio. 2) Strengthen brand building and upgrade the mental positioning of consumers. 2022 is the first year of the second five-year plan, comprehensively shaping the brand image and value appeal of "choose Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) " and building " Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) " into a nationally famous cheese brand familiar to consumers. 3) Continue to expand marketing network coverage and create channel advantages of the whole system. For offline retail channels, under the guidance of "expanding at room temperature and refining at low temperature", the company will continue to promote the sinking and deep cultivation of channels, strengthen the coverage of outlets such as national and regional supermarkets, convenience stores and mother and child stores, and ensure the growth of the number of retail terminal outlets. For e-commerce channels, the company has continuously consolidated the foundation of tmall and jd.com e-commerce platforms, and further improved the multi platform coverage of the whole network. The company will also actively embrace new retail channels such as social platform, takeout home platform, large supermarket online shopping and timely arrival platform. 4) Continuously improve the management level and lay a solid foundation for sustainable development. The company will continue to promote the construction of "digital intelligence and smart technology", build a smart supply chain platform, build a digital middle platform, build a digital chemical plant, realize office automation, etc.
Profit forecast
We are optimistic that the company will continue to focus on cheese sticks, strengthen the minds of consumers and build a cheese category leader. It is estimated that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 0.8/1.26/1.85 yuan, and the current share price corresponding to PE will be 43 / 27 / 18 times respectively, maintaining the "recommended" investment rating.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risks, the epidemic drag on consumption, the promotion of normal temperature cheese sticks is less than expected, the growth of cheese sector is less than expected, and the market competition is intensified.
