\u3000\u30 Shaanxi Zhongtian Rocket Technology Co.Ltd(003009) 11 Zhejiang Entive Smart Kitchen Appliance Co.Ltd(300911) )
The company disclosed the annual report of 2021:
For the whole year of 2021, the income, return to parent and deduction of non-profit points were 1.23 billion, 210 million and 180 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 72%, + 46% and + 46%. 2021q4: income, return to parent and deduction of non-profit points are 420 million, 50 million and 30 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 78%, + 12% and - 20%.
Revenue analysis: the growth rate is leading in the industry and the first year assessment target is achieved
Q4 revenue + 78%, the fastest among the four listed companies. We expect that the core driver of the company's high growth is the high growth of online distribution mode. The reasons are as follows:
① the online growth rate of the company is higher than the offline growth rate: according to the annual report, the total tax inclusive sales of jd.com and Taobao are 700million, yoy+199%, higher than the overall growth rate of the company;
② the growth rate of formula distribution revenue is faster than that of direct sales: in 2021, the company's distribution mode achieved revenue of 1.1 billion, yoy + 80%, and the direct sales mode achieved revenue of 120 million, yoy + 23%. The growth rate of distribution mode is faster.
③ it is estimated that the distribution mode accounts for a relatively high proportion of online revenue: according to the disclosure of the annual report, the per capita purchase frequency of the company's total consumers in jd.com and Taobao is 2.17. Considering that the probability of online and offline single frequency of ordinary consumers will not exceed once a year, it is expected that a considerable part of them are online orders from distributors.
According to the company's restricted stock incentive plan, the revenue growth target in 2021 is 60%, the actual revenue of the company is 72%, and the five-year target has made a good start.
Profit analysis: it is expected that margin and cost pressure will lead to the decline of gross profit margin
Gross profit margin: - 0.9pct to 44.7% for the whole year, 44% for Q4 and 4.6% for yoy. The main reasons for the more decline in Q4: ① there are more rebate provisions. According to the prospectus, the company confirms the annual rebate according to the dealer's purchase and payment collection amount in the current year, which is expected to be mostly confirmed by Q4. Under the background of high income growth in 2021, it is expected to increase more than that in 2020. The gross profit margin of the company's annual distribution model decreased by 4.2pct year-on-year, which is higher than that of the company as a whole, which can be confirmed from the side. ② Raw material pressure: the direct material cost in the company's integrated stove product cost increased by 84% year-on-year, which can be confirmed by the side.
Expense rate: the annual sales expense rate is + 2.7pct to 19.3pct, in which the advertising, e-commerce service and consulting service fees have more than doubled; The management and R & D expenses are basically stable.
Net interest rate: the annual net interest rate is 17%, yoy-3pct, Q4 is 12.8%, yoy-7.5pct.
Business outlook: the five-year target is the bottom, and the high growth in the future remains the same
According to the company's restricted equity incentive plan, the unlocking condition in 2022 is that the operating revenue and net profit in 2022 will increase by no less than 110% and 60% compared with that in 2020, and the corresponding revenue growth in 2022 needs to be more than 22%. The unlocking condition in 2025 is that the operating revenue and net profit in 2025 will increase by no less than 350% and 150% compared with that in 2020, and the compound growth rate of revenue growth from 2022 to 2025 will be no less than 27%.
Investment suggestions:
Considering the strong growth momentum of the company's scale, we raised the company's revenue forecast for 22 and 23 years, and introduced the 24-year revenue forecast at the same time; Considering that the price of raw materials remained relatively high in Q1 in 22 years, we lowered the company's performance forecast for 22 and 23 years, and introduced the 24-year performance forecast at the same time. It is estimated that the company will realize operating revenue of 1.70 billion, 2.21 billion and 2.76 billion (originally 1.50 billion and 1.92 billion) in 22-24 years, with a year-on-year increase of 38%, 30% and 25%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 278 million, 372 million and 469 million (originally 280 million and 376 million), with a year-on-year increase of 33%, 34% and 26%. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips:
The entry of cross-border giants led to the deterioration of competition, the expansion of channels was less than expected, and the profit margin was lower than expected under the investment of high costs
