\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 438 Jiangsu Shentong Valve Co.Ltd(002438) )
Event: Recently, the company released its 2021 annual report. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 1.91 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.45%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 253 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.30%, and a basic earnings per share of 0.52 yuan.
Comments:
Q4’s performance is under pressure due to the influence of double control and the rise in the price of raw materials. On the revenue side, the company’s revenue in 2021 was 1.91 billion yuan, an increase of 20.45% at the same time. Quarterly, the revenue growth rates of Q1-Q4 in 2021 were 48.72%, 27.93%, 24.52% and – 9.59% respectively. The commencement of projects in the metallurgical industry in Q4 was delayed due to the dual control, and the new signing orders of energy-saving service business had not yet formed revenue, so the revenue decreased year-on-year; On the profit side, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 253 million yuan in 2021, an increase of 17.30% at the same time. The growth rate of Q1-Q4 net profit attributable to the parent company was 60.79%, 9.69%, 31.50% and – 25.86% respectively. In 2021, the gross profit margin was 31.23%, a slight decrease of 0.91 PCT at the same time, and the net profit margin was 13.27% and 0.36 PCT at the same time, which was mainly due to the increase in the price of raw materials and the increase in R & D investment. In 2021, the sales expense rate was 5.60%, decreased by 0.84 PCT, the management expense rate was 4.45%, decreased by 0.26 PCT, the financial expense rate was 0.56%, decreased by 0.55 PCT, the R & D expense rate was 4.17%, increased by 0.08 PCT, the expense rate decreased during the period, and the R & D investment continued to increase.
The nuclear power sector benefited from the upward cycle of the industry and is expected to maintain high growth. In 2021, the revenue of the company’s nuclear power industry was 505 million yuan, an increase of 45.61% and a gross profit margin of 40.83%, an increase of 118 PCT. In 2021, the nuclear power military industry division signed a new order of 750 million yuan (including 207 million yuan for R Project) China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) policy continues to be strengthened. Since the approval of nuclear power restart in 2019, the number of approval and commencement has increased year by year. Four Hualong 1 units were approved in 2019, followed by four units of Changjiang and san’ao nuclear power plants and five units of Tianwan nuclear power plant in 2020 and 2021. As the upward cycle of nuclear power starts, we expect that the installed capacity of nuclear power will increase rapidly during the 14th Five Year Plan period, and the company, as a leading enterprise of nuclear power ball valve and butterfly valve, will fully benefit. In addition, the company has made greater efforts to layout the field of spent fuel treatment. The company has obtained an order of about 370 million yuan in the first 200 ton spent fuel reprocessing construction project, and the second set of projects is expected to win more products. We believe that the nuclear power sector is expected to become an important growth point of the company.
The metallurgical sector expands the field of general valves and opens up growth space. In 2021, the company’s metallurgical industry revenue was 488 million yuan, with a decrease of 0.58% and a gross profit margin of 32.14%, with a decrease of 3.22 PCT. In 2021, the company signed 600 million new orders in the metallurgical industry. The company expanded the layout of general-purpose valves, built a model project of “valve housekeeper” relying on Jinxi iron and steel, and the new model accelerated the promotion of the company’s business in the field of general-purpose valves. There is a large market space for general-purpose valves. The annual demand for valve spare parts of 10 million ton steel enterprises is about 40 million yuan, and the corresponding stock market demand space of 1.2 billion tons of steel production capacity in China is 5 billion yuan. “Valve housekeeper” provides valve life cycle services for iron and steel enterprises, avoids invalid goods preparation and inventory occupation, improves the effectiveness and timeliness of valve spare parts in iron and steel enterprises, reduces users’ spare parts inventory and improves economic benefits. At present, the company has been fully applied in China’s key steel enterprises and achieved good expected results. It is being promoted to other large steel enterprises, and some customers have been put into use. We expect that the company is expected to cut into the field of Metallurgical General valves by virtue of the new model of “valve steward” and open up the demand space.
The energy sector grew steadily, and energy-saving services and hydrogen energy business continued to advance. In 2021, the company’s energy industry revenue was 571 million yuan, an increase of 31.42% at the same time, benefiting from the trend of capacity integration and transformation in the petrochemical industry, with a gross profit margin of 15.86% and an increase of 0.57% at the same time. In the energy-saving service sector in 2021, Ruifan energy-saving signed 2.827 billion yuan of new orders (mainly including 1.6 billion yuan of Handan Iron and steel and 1 billion yuan of Jinxi iron and steel). Due to the long construction cycle, no revenue has been formed at present. In addition, Ruifan energy conservation has launched metal film dust removal. The first set of metal film dust removal products has been delivered to Jinxi iron and Steel Co., Ltd. for use. The dust removal effect is obvious, and the emission after dust removal is less than 5mg / m3. In the future, the company will promote it to iron and steel enterprises all over China. We believe that the metal film dust removal independently developed by the company has a large space to replace the traditional dust removal technology. In addition, the company has increased the number of Wuxi flange, which has consolidated its competitiveness and is expected to improve its business growth. In 2021, Wuxi flange signed 654 million new orders. In addition, the company’s hydrogen energy, military products and other businesses are still accelerating. The main business of the company has maintained high growth, actively expanded new business areas, and has a large long-term growth space.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we expect the company to realize net profit attributable to parent company of 345 million yuan, 452 million yuan and 577 million yuan from 2022 to 2024, with corresponding EPS of 0.68 yuan / share, 0.89 yuan / share and 1.14 yuan / share respectively, and corresponding PE of current stock price of 22 times, 17 times and 13 times respectively. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk factors: business progress does not meet expectations, policy changes, raw material price fluctuations, increased industry competition and other risks.
