Keeson Technology Corporation Limited(603610) ( Keeson Technology Corporation Limited(603610) )
The electric bed Market in the United States is booming, with strong demand and smooth implementation of price increase to hedge the price rise of raw materials
Price increase measures: in 21h1, the company's profit growth was flat, dragged down by the sharp rise in the price of raw materials (steel, etc.) & Shipping (mainly FOB, but still partially affected). Since July 1, 2001, the company has negotiated with major customers to implement the price increase measures with an average of about 10 PCT, showing a strong cost transfer ability. Behind it is the strong demand in the downstream of the smart electric bed track and the good competition pattern at the supply side.
High growth of overseas business: the company's overseas revenue in 21 years was 2.754 billion (+ 32.53%). According to ISPA, in 2021, the penetration rate of electric bed in the United States was 13.87% (14.08% in 20 years). Due to the impact of the epidemic, the penetration rate has been suspended, but the pattern has changed. TSI, the major customer served by the company, has a good growth momentum and increased market share. The revenue of the largest customer in 20 / 21 years accounted for 47.16% and 49.66% respectively. It is estimated that TSI contributed about 1473 million (+ 38%) in 21 years. In addition, the European market has also achieved a high growth rate, but the base is small. Looking forward to the next year, after the recovery of demand after the epidemic, as the penetration rate of intelligent electric bed in the U.S. market is still low and there is much room for improvement, it is optimistic that the company's overseas business will maintain a stable growth of 15-20%.
The medical care model for domestic sales has set sail with great potential, and the Winter Olympic Games can be used to improve category and brand awareness
In 21 years, the company's domestic revenue was 127 million (+ 9.33%), accounting for 4.3%, which is still in its infancy. The growth of e-commerce channels is good, but the offline distribution business is making slow progress due to the low acceptance of smart beds by consumers and low brand awareness. As the only supplier of smart beds for the 2021 Olympic Winter Games and the 2022 Paralympic Winter Games, SKP has opened more than 6000 electric beds in Beijing's Olympic Winter Games and the Paralympic Winter Games; (2) The intelligent health care mode of nursing and medical care, with the help of elderly care institutions and medical units to promote smart bed products, was launched in October 2020. At the beginning of 2022, the company was selected into the pilot demonstration list of intelligent health care application of the Ministry of industry and information technology in 2021, looking forward to large-scale development; (3) In the new business form of empowering hotels, by laying smart electric beds in major high-end hotels across the country, consumers can pay to enjoy the physical functions of smart electric beds and healthy sleep data services. The company plans to increase its business in China to 10% under ideal conditions in 22 years, with great growth potential.
The average sales price of electric bed increased month on month, and the capacity of intelligent factory was released to improve efficiency
By category: intelligent electric beds have sold 2.622 billion (+ 34%) in 21 years, with a sales volume of 1.4768 million pieces (+ 31%), the average sales price is 177563 yuan / piece (+ 2%), the price of 21h2 is increased by 10%, and the unit price of 21h1 is lower than that of 20h1 due to the large sales of cost-effective products. 125 million mattresses (+ 4%), mainly affected by anti-dumping, with a sales volume of 84400 sheets and an average price of 1478 yuan / sheet. Spare parts and other income of 135million (+18%).
In terms of capacity layout: the 4 million smart electric bed headquarters project (phase II) planned by the company at the beginning of 2022 will be started, which will form an annual production capacity of 1 million sets of sensors, a data center service capacity of 24000 electric beds and complete the construction of R & D center. In terms of overseas production capacity, Vietnam has been repeatedly affected by the epidemic in 21 years, climbing to about 3 Shenzhen Guohua Network Security Technology Co.Ltd(000004) 00000 pieces / year. In 22 years, the epidemic in Vietnam is expected to climb smoothly to 5 Shenzhen Zhenye(Group)Co.Ltd(000006) 00000 pieces; Meanwhile, the company's Mexican plant was successfully put into operation in Q3 of 21. The release of overseas production capacity is conducive to the company's transfer of production of export orders to the United States, offset the fluctuations caused by tariffs and enhance the premium ability to customers.
Q4 gross profit margin continued to improve, RMB appreciation brought exchange losses and increased marketing expenses in preparation for the Winter Olympics
(1) gross profit margin: the gross profit margin of 21q4 was 38.28% (year-on-year + 3.05pct), and the profitability gradually recovered due to the price increase measures.
(2) expense rate: during the 21q4 period, the expense rate was 26.78% (+ 1.08pct), of which the sales expense rate was 12.65% (+ 3.76pct), mainly due to the increase in investment in publicity and marketing of the Winter Olympic Games; The rate of management + R & D expenses is 9.31% (-1.61pct), and the scale benefit is released; The financial expense rate is 4.82% (-1.07pct). In 21q4, due to the appreciation of RMB and exchange loss, the financial expense increased to 38 million and in 20q4 was about 40 million.
(3) cash flow: by the end of 21q4, the company's accounts receivable + bills totaled 481 million (year-on-year + 14.6%), with a growth rate lower than that of revenue, and strong accounting period management ability; The inventory of 786 million (year-on-year + 71%) increased significantly, and the company is expected to prepare more goods and raw materials in advance. The net operating cash flow in 21 years was 149 million (+ 96%), including 187 million in 21q4 (72 million in 21q4), which was significantly better.
Profit forecast and valuation
The company's card smart electric bed blue ocean growth track is deeply bound to overseas major customers. At the same time, it actively develops domestic sales channels. If the implementation of the intelligent health care mode of health care is successful, it is expected to bring excess performance growth and value revaluation, and is optimistic about long-term growth. We expect the company to achieve revenue of RMB 3.585/43.09/5.217 billion in 22-24 years, with a year-on-year increase of 20.84% / 20.18% / 21.07%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is RMB 437/5.22/618 million, with a year-on-year increase of 22.28% / 19.58% / 18.36%. The corresponding PE is 11.49x/9.61x/8.12x, maintaining the "buy" rating!
Risk tip: the overseas epidemic continues to spread, the competition in the electric bed industry intensifies, and the development of domestic sales channels fails to meet expectations
