\u3000\u30006 Guangdong Ganhua Science & Industry Co.Ltd(000576) 00057)
Event: the company issued the 2021 annual report. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of about 462.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.4%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 2.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66.2%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was about 2.15 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 64.5%. The company plans to pay a cash dividend (before tax) of 0.51 yuan per share, with a cash dividend rate of more than 55% for three consecutive years.
The bulk commodity distribution business maintained rapid growth. In 2021, the volume of bulk commodities operated by the company was about 190 million tons, with a slight decrease compared with the same period. Among them, the volume of metal minerals, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , energy and chemicals was about 93 million tons, 15 million tons and 84 million tons respectively, with a year-on-year change of about – 21.6%, – 8.9% and + 18.6% respectively; The operating income of metal minerals, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , energy and chemicals was about 292.8 billion yuan, 44 billion yuan and 109 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of about 22.4%, 10.7% and 57.2% respectively. Based on the above, the company’s bulk commodity distribution business achieved an operating revenue of about 440.2 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 28.1%.
In 2021, the company’s revenue from bulk commodity logistics services was about 7.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 27.8%. Among them, the operating revenue of comprehensive logistics services, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) logistics services and railway logistics services was 5.83 billion yuan, 370 million yuan and 1.16 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of + 34.8%, – 35.6% and + 33.5% respectively. The main reason for the decline of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) revenue was that the average warehouse reserves and outbound volume of national storage were low, with a year-on-year decrease of more than 40%.
Commodity prices rose and the company’s roe level rose. The overall gross profit margin of the company in 2021 was 2.19%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.24pct; The net profit margin of sales was 0.59%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.14 PCT; Roe was 12.6%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9pct. The main reason for the increase in profitability is that in 2021, affected by the global economic recovery, monetary easing and the “double carbon” target, the price of bulk commodities rose as a whole, and the company enjoyed some price elasticity in the process of providing services to customers. The gross profit margin of metal minerals and energy chemicals in bulk commodity distribution business increased by 0.14pct and 0.47pct respectively year-on-year in 2021; In 2021, the overall gross profit margin of the company’s bulk commodity business sector was 1.93%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.17pct. In 2021, the gross profit margin of the company’s comprehensive logistics services was 10.7%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.33pct, mainly due to the high sea freight, the repeated overseas epidemic, the obstruction of the development of import and export logistics and chartering business, and the appropriate reduction of the rate of return in order to expand market share.
The market space of commodity supply chain is huge. According to the estimates of professional research institutions (the company’s announcement), the market scale of bulk commodity supply chain has been stable at about 40trillion in the past five years. The market share of China’s Cr4 ( Wuchan Zhongda Group Co.Ltd(600704) Xiamen Xiangyu Co.Ltd(600057) Xiamen C&D Inc(600153) Xiamen Itg Group Corp.Ltd(600755) Xiamen Itg Group Corp.Ltd(600755) 2020 3.59% from 1.21% in 2016 to 3.59% in 2020, with a compound growth rate of 31%, but it is far from the market share of the United States and Japan (50%).There is still much room for improvement. At present, the company has entered the period of repair and improvement. In the future, the company will continue to improve the level of roe and promote profit growth by means of “giving full play to the scale effect, improving service efficiency, releasing logistics benefits and optimizing customers and commodities”.
Investment suggestion: the bulk supply chain business of the company operates steadily, and the market share and roe are expected to increase simultaneously; The company issued equity incentive (Draft), which is expected to mobilize the enthusiasm of employees and promote the long-term development of the company. Based on the above, we raised the company’s 22-23 year net profit forecast by 26% / 35% to 2.58 billion yuan and 3.08 billion yuan respectively, and increased the 24-year net profit forecast by 3.78 billion yuan; Maintain the company’s “overweight” rating.
Risk warning: commodity price fluctuation risk, leading to customer default; Business risks, such as partner’s breach of contract, loss of goods, etc; Capital risk, such as the rise of capital cost caused by the decline of rating, etc.
