\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 51 Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) )
Key investment points
Performance overview: the company's 22q1 revenue was 830 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 32.1%, the net profit attributable to the parent was 180 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 49.8%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent was 170 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 42.7%.
Benefiting from the transformation of orders in hand, the performance increased rapidly, and the gross profit margin reached a new high in recent three years. As perc's conversion efficiency approaches the ceiling, perc's production expansion shrinks, and the company's orders are mainly driven by hjt. According to our estimation, the overall market order of hjt in the whole industry reached 8.1gw in 2021 (excluding Europe), an increase of 330% over 2020. Among them, the company obtained 5.8gw orders, accounting for 72% of the market, and 5.8gw has received advance payment from customers. According to the calculation of 400 million yuan / GW, the newly signed hjt orders of the company in 2021 reached 2.32 billion yuan. In addition, with the addition of perc screen printing, semiconductor, panel and other orders, we expect the company's total orders to be more than 4 billion yuan in 2021. Affected by the abundant orders on hand, the performance of the whole year of 22 years increased rapidly, with strong certainty. 22q1's gross profit margin reached 40.6%, year-on-year + 2.3pp, month on month + 2.5pp, net profit margin 20.9%, year-on-year + 2.4pp, month on month + 1.0pp. Among them, the gross profit margin reached a new high in a single quarter in recent three years, showing the continuous improvement of product bargaining ability and cost control ability.
Actively prepare goods to deal with the epidemic situation and new orders in the future, and continuously improve the ability of cost control. The net cash flow of the company's 22q1 operating activities was 29.43 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 73.3%, which was mainly due to the fact that the company prepared goods in advance, locked the capacity of suppliers and significantly increased the purchase volume year-on-year considering the impact of the epidemic. The company's inventory during the reporting period was 3.27 billion yuan, an increase of 16.5% compared with the end of 2021. The active preparation also showed the company's optimistic expectation of new orders in 22 years. In terms of expense ratio, the sales / management / R & D / financial expense ratio of 22q1 company was 4.8% / 4.5% / 11.2% / - 2.9% respectively, with a year-on-year ratio of -0.1pp / - 0.7pp / + 3.4pp / - 1.8pp and a month-on-month ratio of -3.5pp / + 3.0pp / - 3.5pp / - 2.3pp. The total expense rate during 22q1 was 17.5%, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.0pp and a month on month increase of -6.3pp. The ability of cost control continued to improve.
Hjt large orders are gradually implemented, and we are optimistic about the history of hjt parity in 2022. On April 15, the company signed a 4.8 gwhjt whole line order with rec India. According to the prediction of 400 million / gwhjt whole line, the amount of this order is close to 2 billion yuan, more than 50% of the revenue in 21 years. According to Maiwei, the expansion scale of hjt in the industry is expected to reach 20-30gw in 2022, a significant increase year-on-year compared with 8.1gw in 2021. According to the calculation of 25gw production expansion, 400 million / GW whole line investment and Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) 70% market share, the order of Maiwei hjt is expected to reach 7 billion yuan in 2022. Compared with the expansion scale of hjt, the market pays more attention to the progress of hjt parity. If hjt achieves cost parity with perc within this year, the industry is expected to usher in a large-scale expansion of hjt, the leading manufacturer, in 2023. At present, cost reduction nodes including smbb and large capacity equipment have been realized. We expect that the hjt parity nodes in 2022 mainly include microcrystalline PECVD mass production, silver slurry localization, half bar sheet, silver clad copper localization, PVD target optimization, etc. Microcrystalline PECVD is the first step in the 22-year hjt parity rhythm. The mass production data of positive surface microcrystalline PECVD is expected to reach about 25%, and the efficiency is expected to reach 25.5% after superimposing back surface microcrystalline (double-sided microcrystalline). Previously, Guangdong Golden Glass Technologies Limited(300093) has released more than 24.5% of the small batch data of single-sided microcrystals. It is expected that the stable and mature mass production microcrystals data of Guangdong Golden Glass Technologies Limited(300093) and Huasheng new energy will be released in the near future, and the relevant targets of the industrial chain are expected to benefit.
Profit forecast: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 890 / 14.4 / 2.04 billion, corresponding to pe62 / 39 / 27 times, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk tip: the iteration of photovoltaic technology is less than expected, the research and development of new technology is less than expected, and the market competition intensifies the risk.
