\u3000\u3 Bohai Water Industry Co.Ltd(000605) 337 Zhe Jiang Li Zi Yuan Food Co.Ltd(605337) )
Events
The company released its performance in 2021: the company’s revenue in 2021 was 1.47 billion yuan (+ 35.14%); The net profit attributable to the parent company was 262 million yuan (+ 22.34%); Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 243 million yuan (+ 22.73%), and the performance is in line with the previous performance express range.
Main contents
The core products of milk beverage grew steadily, and the proportion of revenue increased to 97.45%
In 2021, the company’s beverage business revenue was 1.465 billion yuan (+ 35.86%). Specifically, the revenue of milk beverage / milk flavor beverage / compound protein beverage / other products was 14.27/0.2/0.05/0.12 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year change of 36.64% / 173.63% / 12.29% / – 43.15% respectively. Among them, the ton price of milk beverage and milk flavor beverage increased by 1.60/7.10 percentage points year-on-year, and the proportion of revenue increased by 0.55/0.69 percentage points to 97.45% / 1.37% year-on-year.
There is still much room for further exploration in the steady expansion of mature markets, and key potential markets provide power
In 2021, the company established a sales network in more than 30 provinces in China, among which the revenue of East China / Central China / Southwest / South China / North China / Northeast / northwest was 782 / 2.87/2.45/0.51/0.27/0.14/09 million yuan respectively. On the one hand, the company will refine the channels of key mature regions: among the mature markets with a revenue share of more than 20%, the revenue share of East China, central China and southwest China will change by – 3.10 / + 0.72 / + 0.43 percentage points to 53.21% / 19.52% / 16.67% respectively. At the same time, the revenue has achieved an excellent growth of 27.70% / 40.29% / 38.72% year-on-year. As the mature regions are China’s economically developed or densely populated provinces, the market still has great room for further exploration; On the other hand, it has gradually radiated and driven the surrounding regional markets. The revenue share of key and potential markets such as South China, North China, northeast and northwest has also increased slightly year-on-year, with revenue growth rates of 180.16% / 110.66% / 144.58% / 226.44% respectively. The development of this region provides development power for the national layout of the company. In addition, in 2021, the company achieved sales revenue of 50 million yuan (+ 12%) through e-commerce channels.
The increase of multi-party costs made the profitability decline temporarily, and the overall performance of cash flow was stable
In 2021, the company’s gross profit margin and net profit margin decreased by 1.30/1.87 percentage points year-on-year to 35.88% / 17.86% respectively. The company’s profitability decreased slightly, mainly due to: 1) the increase of the company’s labor cost, freight and main raw material cost; 2) Some production lines in Yunnan and Henan bases have been put into operation, and the cost of capacity climbing stage has increased (at the same time, the cost of outsourcing processing has decreased); 3) During the same period, the company’s sales expenses increased by 12.08% to 14.08% compared with the same period, and the management expenses increased by 2.0% compared with the same period. In terms of operating cash flow, the company’s operating cash flow in 2021 was 219 million (- 26.11%)
The company actively promoted the construction of production base and further optimized the production capacity layout in 2021
In 2021, the company has built five production bases in Jinhua, Zhejiang, Longyou, Jiangxi Shanggao, Qujing, Yunnan and Hebi, Henan. The company adopts the “production based on sales mode”, the product sales turnover is fast, and the production and marketing rate remains at a good level. Among them, the production and marketing rate of milk beverage is 99.36%, that of milk flavor beverage is 99.38%, that of compound protein beverage is 100.13%, and that of other beverages is 101.24%. With the implementation of Longyou phase II project in 22 years, its own productivity is expected to be further improved.
The company’s core focus: entering the accelerated stage of scale expansion, we are optimistic about the improvement of profitability under national expansion
In the short term, the epidemic situation and cost increase may cause some pressure on the company’s 22q1 performance, but it will not change the trend of nationalization in the medium and long term. In the medium and long term, we expect that 2022 will be the year when Zhe Jiang Li Zi Yuan Food Co.Ltd(605337) really begins to accelerate the nationalization. The main reasons are as follows: 1) the promotion of both channel volume and quality is the basis of Nationalization: Zhe Jiang Li Zi Yuan Food Co.Ltd(605337) the high channel profit is the core thrust + the gradual enhancement of product strength / brand strength + the standardization of management system & the stability of policies are the main reasons for attracting dealers to join; 2) The accelerated growth trend of the 100 million level market is significantly the result of Nationalization: with the increasingly refined regional marketing, it is expected that on the basis of the company’s original 100 million level markets such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai and Yunnan, Henan, Anhui, Jiangxi and other regions will be added in 2022, and more than 50 million markets are accelerating their expansion; 3) The continuous implementation of production capacity is a guarantee for Nationalization: due to the rapid growth of demand, the company previously solved the problem of insufficient production capacity by increasing the proportion of outsourced processing. With the company’s expansion of production through IPO raising and investment plus foreign investment, it is expected that the company can finally achieve a production capacity of more than 550000 tons and increase the total annual profit by 200 million. On this base, we believe that the core logic of the company is: under the effect of scale, the unit cost decreases (the self owned capacity increases + the proportion of outsourcing decreases + the capacity utilization increases) + the ton price increases (price increases and high priced new products are launched) + the cost rate control is stable = the performance of the profit side improves.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the company’s revenue growth from 2022 to 2024 will be 25.7%, 24.2% and 22.4% respectively; The growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company was 26.3%, 26.1% and 25.0% respectively; EPS is 1.5, 1.9 and 2.4 yuan / share; PE is 23, 18 and 14 times respectively. Considering the strong certainty of the company’s annual performance, the current valuation is very cost-effective, and the buy rating is maintained.
Risk warning: the second outbreak of the epidemic in China; Single category risk; The promotion of new products is less than expected; Regional expansion is not
And expectations; Food safety issues; Raw material price fluctuation risk.
