\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 688 Jiangsu Pacific Quartz Co.Ltd(603688) )
High purity quartz sand and semiconductor drive high performance growth. The company recently released its annual report for 21 years. The annual revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 960 million / 280 million, yoy + 48.8% / 49.4%. The performance slightly exceeded our expectations, and the growth mainly depended on the rise in the price and sales of high-purity quartz sand. In addition, the sales volume of semiconductor business in the optical fiber semiconductor sector increased significantly. The logic of PV / semiconductor domestic substitution is constantly being fulfilled. In the fourth quarter alone, the company's revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company was 280 / 110 million yuan, yoy + 60.2% / 169.3%. The price of high-purity quartz sand accelerated in 21q4, driving faster growth of performance.
High purity quartz sand is expected to continue to rise in volume and price in 22 years. In 21 years, the sales volume of high-purity quartz sand was 23611 tons, including 14067 / 9544 tons for export / self use, yoy + 93% / 10%. As the self-use high-purity quartz sand is a semi-finished product and does not directly generate economic benefits, we mainly focus on the external sales volume. The 21-year average price of export products is 21500 yuan, yoy + 9%. High purity quartz sand is expected to maintain a rising trend in 22 years, and the demand side 1. The installed capacity continues to increase (China Photovoltaic Industry Association predicts that the newly increased installed capacity of photovoltaic in 22 years is 75gw-90gw, yoy + 35% - 64%); 2. The battery type is changed from P to N, and the crucible replacement frequency is increased. The supply is mainly provided by unimin / TQC / Jiangsu Pacific Quartz Co.Ltd(603688) and the public information shows that only the company has the production expansion plan (raised investment of 20000 tons, about to be put into operation + new construction of 15000 tons). Another source of price elasticity is that more high-purity quartz sand is used for the inner bottom of single crystal crucible. Compared with the current main application for the outer bottom, the price / profitability is further improved. In the next 2-3 years, due to the logic of increasing demand side and the long construction cycle of new capacity, the price of high-purity quartz sand is expected to rise steadily.
Semiconductor business blossoms and bears fruit. The revenue of semiconductor business in the reporting period was 150 million yuan, yoy + 101%. After successively obtaining the certification in the fields of Tel high temperature diffusion / low temperature etching and Lam low temperature etching, the corresponding orders continue to land. At present, the company is still promoting the construction of 6000 tons of electronic quartz products, which is expected to be completed and reach production in October of 22. Because the new production line is more versatile, it can not only meet the needs of semiconductor business, but also meet the production needs of some light source / optical fiber products. Looking forward to 22 years, domestic alternative logic will continue to be deduced, and the orders of semiconductor products are expected to continue to grow at a high rate. The certification of other semiconductor equipment manufacturers is also ongoing, and more orders will be placed in the future.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
Forecast of eps1 in 22-24 years The sales volume of pure quartz is higher than that of pure quartz (1.83/2 / 2 / 2) in the previous year, with an average value of 1.62/2 / 2 and 1.83/2. As the performance growth of the company's optical fiber semiconductor / photovoltaic sector in 23 years is higher than that of comparable companies, and the prosperity of the industry is in the upward cycle, the corresponding valuation premium is given. We recognize the 22-year average 64 / 34 / 13xpe in the optical fiber semiconductor / photovoltaic / light source industry. The segment valuation method is adopted, and the corresponding target price is 60.3 yuan, maintaining the "buy" rating
Risk warning: the project is put into operation less than expected, and the price of raw materials will rise sharply
