\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Guohua Network Security Technology Co.Ltd(000004) 25 Xcmg Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(000425) )
Event: on April 18, the company disclosed the annual report of 2021. In 2021, the operating revenue was 84.328 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.01%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.615 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.57%. In 2021q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.005 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.3% and a month on month increase of 24.7%.
Affected by the macro economy, the industry is under pressure in the short term, but it is not easy for the company to maintain high performance growth. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the growth rate of real estate and infrastructure slowed down, and the construction machinery industry was greatly affected. However, the company's annual revenue has increased steadily, the profitability has been continuously improved, and the performance has maintained a high-speed growth of more than 50%. The company further promoted the "No. 1 project" of strengthening risk control and cost reduction and efficiency increase, and strictly controlled four expenses. The proportion of expenses decreased from 9.97% in 2020 to 9.32%, and the company's net profit margin increased from 1.64pct to 6.7%. It is expected that the net profit margin is expected to rise to more than 7% in 2022.
The market share of fist products has increased steadily, a number of products have entered the top three in the world, and the emerging sector has a rapid volume. In 2021, the growth rate of most of the company's flagship products was higher than that of the industry, the crane sector remained strong, the mobile crane continued to rank first in the world, the share of crawler cranes with more than 500 tons increased by 9 percentage points, and the truck mounted crane ranked third in the world; Loaders rose to the top five in the world, and road machinery rose to the third in the world for the first time. The market share of roller, grader, paver and milling machine continues to increase. In terms of emerging sectors, in 2021, the company's aerial work platform achieved a revenue of 4.998 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 34%. Among them, the first position of boom aerial work platform industry is more stable, and the profitability is greatly improved; In addition, the revenue of small construction machinery increased by 50% year-on-year, the revenue of forklift increased by 258% year-on-year, and asphalt station and chassis maintenance products entered the top two in the industry.
Exports performed well and contributed revenue to a new high. In 2021, the company achieved an export revenue of 12.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 111.8%, and its contribution to revenue reached 15.35%, a new high in recent five years. Among them, the export of key products achieved high growth. The export of medium and large equipment increased by 110.4% year-on-year, the export of pavement machinery increased by 92.1% year-on-year, and the export of truck crane increased by 59.1% year-on-year. At present, the company has accelerated the localization of manufacturing in Brazil, North America and other places, and its revenue has reached a record high. Indian companies have started formal operation, and the continuous development of exports is expected to be the guarantee for the growth of the company's performance.
The landing of special bonds has helped the recovery of infrastructure, waiting for the improvement of the construction machinery industry after the epidemic. In 2021, the construction machinery industry as a whole experienced a trend of high in the first quarter and low in the second quarter. However, special bonds were issued intensively in the fourth quarter, which significantly boosted infrastructure investment projects in the first quarter. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to March, the national fixed asset investment increased by 9.3% year-on-year, including infrastructure investment increased by 8.5% year-on-year, 0.4pct faster than that from January to February. In addition, the amount of new special bonds in 2022 was 3.6 trillion yuan. By the end of March, the issuance progress had exceeded 1 / 3, and the amount of special bonds for project construction had been issued. Although the construction in East China and other places is currently affected by the epidemic, it is expected that with the improvement of epidemic control and the gradual recovery of infrastructure, the construction machinery industry is expected to usher in marginal improvement.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the company will achieve an operating income of 92.479102.22/114786 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 6.671/79.39/9.75 billion yuan in 22-24 years, corresponding to 6 / 5 / 4 times of PE, maintaining the "recommended" rating.
Risk tips: macroeconomic downside risk, market competition risk, supply chain security risk, raw material price risk, exchange rate fluctuation risk
