\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 677 Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) )
Event: the company released the first quarterly report of 2022 after hours on April 18, realizing a revenue of 7.489 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 590 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 83%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non recurring profits and losses was 485 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 76%.
Comments:
Processing fees rose, the proportion of foreign trade increased, and the net profit in a single quarter hit a record high. The company's performance increased significantly in 2022q1 mainly due to: 1) the increase of aluminum product processing fee; 2) The proportion of foreign trade products has increased, while overseas aluminum products are at a premium compared with China; 3) The output of recycled aluminum has increased and the utilization of recycled aluminum has increased. The ROE (diluted) in the single quarter of 2022q1 was 5.37%, an increase of 1.06 percentage points month on month and 1.73 percentage points year-on-year. The net operating cash flow was RMB 200 million, a year-on-year decrease of 29%, mainly due to the increase of accounts receivable. The accounts receivable in 2022q1 was RMB 1.79 billion, an increase of RMB 650 million compared with the end of 2021.
The output of 2022q1 increased by 6% year-on-year, and the shipment sales affected by the epidemic were flat year-on-year. In the first quarter, the output of aluminum sheet and strip was 297000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6%, and the output of aluminum profile was 5400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 54%; The sales volume of aluminum sector and strip was 280000 tons, the same as that of the same period last year. The sales volume of aluminum profile was 5500 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 120%. The difference between the output and sales volume in Q1 was 17000 tons, or it was mainly due to the impact of the epidemic on product transportation.
The green aluminum project with an annual output of 700000 tons has been put into operation smoothly, and the output of recycled aluminum is planned to increase by 220000 tons. On March 15, the company announced that in the project of green new aluminum alloy materials with an annual output of 700000 tons, two waggstaff aluminum alloy flat ingot casting machines have been completed and put into operation; The construction of 1 + 4 hot tandem rough rolling production line, six high cold rolling mill and other equipment is expected to be completed before the second quarter. The project plans to produce 220000 tons of aluminum alloy flat ingots, 115000 tons of hot-rolled billets and 50000 tons of finished products for export.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: Based on the rising processing fees of aluminum products, the increasing proportion of the company's high-end products and the improvement of the cost side after the continuous expansion of recycled aluminum, it is optimistic that the company's performance will continue to maintain high-speed growth. We maintain the previous profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 2.87/38.1/4.53 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 55.1% / 32.5% / 19.1%. The PE valuation corresponding to the current stock price is 9 / 7 / 5x respectively, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk tip: risk of large fluctuation of aluminum price; The capacity release of the company's projects under construction is less than expected; Risk of significant increase in accounts receivable
