\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 137 Ningbo Boway Alloy Material Co.Ltd(601137) )
Event:
Ningbo Boway Alloy Material Co.Ltd(601137) issue annual report:
1) in 2021: the operating revenue reached 10.04 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 32.27%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 310 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.7%.
2) 2021q4: the revenue was 2.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.08%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 48 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37.02%.
Key investment points:
The sales target achievement rate of new materials business was close to expectations, driving the revenue growth of 32%. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 10.004 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.27%, mainly due to the increase in the sales volume of the company’s new material business and the steady increase in the proportion of high value-added products and R & D and transformation products. The operating revenue of the company’s new materials business was 9.073 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.76%, the net profit was 390 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.36%, the sales target achievement rate of that year was 91%, and the net profit per ton was 2200 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 21.24%. Among them, the sales volume of alloy strip business, alloy rod and wire business and precision filament increased by 27.12% / 11.53% / 46.36% year-on-year respectively, and the operating revenue increased by 73.47% / 37.31% / 63.08% year-on-year respectively.
The performance of photovoltaic business hit the bottom, resulting in a 38% decline in the net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits, and the performance is expected to rebound in 2022. In 2021, the company achieved a net profit of 248 million yuan after deduction, a year-on-year decrease of 37.91%. The sales target achievement rate of new energy business represented by photovoltaic modules was 30.74%, the revenue was 767 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 46.92%, and the net profit was – 80 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 152.66%. It is mainly due to the sharp rise in sea freight caused by the global epidemic in 2021, the high price of raw materials represented by silicon in the photovoltaic industry, and the tariff imposed by the United States on double-sided modules. With the return of the United States to the Paris Agreement, the high outlook of the photovoltaic industry is relatively clear. In November 2021, the United States resumed 201 tariff exemption for double-sided modules, and the global epidemic gradually recovered. The sea freight is expected to fall. If the silicon price and the epidemic in Vietnam can be basically stable, the company’s new energy sector is expected to rebound in 2022.
Establish the business objectives for 2022 and spare no effort to promote the release of production capacity of projects under construction. The company’s business objectives in 2022 are: the total sales volume of new materials is 238500 tons, including 65000 tons of alloy strip, 106000 tons of alloy bar, 34500 tons of alloy wire rod and 33000 tons of precision fine wire; Sales of photovoltaic modules 1GW. In order to achieve its business objectives, the company has made every effort to promote the release of production capacity of projects under construction. The current 50000 ton special alloy strip project is expected to achieve batch supply in the automotive electronics industry by the end of June 2022, and has begun to ship gradually in other industries; 6700 ton aluminum welding wire project in high-speed railway industry is fully promoting product certification and trial production; The bakenhof (Vietnam) 31800 ton rod and wire project is expected to gradually test the production and marketing of wire rod in the first half of 2022; Alumina dispersed copper project has entered the trial production stage, and some products have been recognized by benchmark customers to realize small batch supply; The project of special materials for intelligent terminal lens has completed the installation and commissioning of the production line, and began large-scale mass production after obtaining the international patent.
As the leader of copper alloy materials in China, the company’s products are widely used in 5g, new energy vehicles, semiconductors and other fields. It is expected to fully benefit from localization and downstream demand growth. In the new materials sector, with the gradual release of 50000 tons of special alloy strip and 31800 tons of special alloy rod and line in Vietnam, the proportion of high-end products is expected to continue to increase. The production capacity of photovoltaic modules of the new energy sector company has expanded from 700MW to 1GW. As the adverse factors such as the epidemic subside, the product sales volume is expected to recover. We estimate that the operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 121.7/131.17/13.948 billion respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 21% / 8% / 6%, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 651 / 8.55/1.022 billion respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 110% / 31% / 19%, and the PE from 2022 to 2024 will be 15.7/11.96/10.01 respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk indicates that the capacity expansion is less than expected; The price of raw materials has risen sharply; Downstream application expansion is less than expected; Geopolitical risks brought by international operation; The aggravation of the epidemic situation affects the operating rate; Sino US trade friction.
