\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 526 Wuhan Keqian Biology Co.Ltd(688526) )
The downturn of pig column filling dragged down short-term performance, and the recovery of pig price drove the recovery of performance, maintaining the “buy” rating
Wuhan Keqian Biology Co.Ltd(688526) released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022: the company achieved a revenue of 1.103 billion yuan (+ 30.81%) in 2021; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 571 million yuan (+ 27.45%). In 2022q1, the company achieved a revenue of 203 million yuan (- 36.46%), and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 91 million yuan (- 46.28%). Affected by the depressed pig price and the reduced willingness of farmers to fill the column, the sales volume of pig vaccine of the company decreased. The price of pigs is expected to rise to the bottom in 2022; In addition, Q2 South enters the rainy season, the requirements for animal disease prevention and control are raised, and the company’s vaccine sales are expected to pick up. The forecast for 2022 is lowered, the forecast for 2023 is maintained, and the forecast for 2024 is added. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 675 / 873 / 1032 million yuan (the original forecast for 20222023 was 754 / 873 million yuan), the corresponding EPS will be 1.45/1.88/2.22 yuan, and the current share price corresponding to PE is 16.3/12.6/10.7 times. The company’s pig vaccine sales account for a relatively high proportion. Benefiting from the recovery of pig price, it is expected that the 2022h2 sales will benefit significantly and maintain the “buy” rating.
Pig breeding losses drag down short-term sales, and the rebound in pig prices is expected to drive the performance to pick up
Since the beginning of 2021, the pig price has been in the process of continuous decline, and fell into a loss in 2021q2. Under the breeding loss, farmers choose to reduce the amount of vaccine in the market, resulting in a significant slowdown in the q2-3 performance of market vaccine enterprises. It is worth noting that Q4 benefited from the rebound in pig prices, the rebound in column filling sentiment, and the necessity of winter epidemic prevention and control. The company’s Q4 revenue and profit increased significantly both month on month and month on month. Although the sales of 2022q1 fell into downturn again, the bottom of pig price has warmed up since mid April, and the sentiment of column filling is getting stronger. It is expected that the q2-4 performance of the company will return to growth.
The company has strong innovation strength, and the economic and companion animal vaccine product matrix is becoming more and more perfect
In 2021, the company obtained five new veterinary drug registration certificates, including Inactivated Porcine Pseudorabies gE gene deletion vaccine (hnx-12 strain), live porcine encephalitis B vaccine (passage cell source, SA14-14-2 strain), inactivated duck tambusu virus vaccine (df2 strain), avian leukemia virus p27 antigen sandwich ELISA test kit and canine parvovirus colloidal gold test strip. In addition, the company has also made good progress in the research of new products in pigs, birds and ruminants. A variety of single and combined vaccines of economic animals have entered the new drug registration or completed the clinical trial stage. In terms of companion animal (PET) vaccine, the company’s rabies inactivated vaccine (sad strain) and canine quadruple live vaccine products have entered the market; Cat triple inactivated vaccine is in the stage of intensive research in the laboratory.
Risk tip: the recovery of pig stocks is less than expected, the industry competition is intensified, and the listing of new products is less than expected.
