\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 567 Shanying International Holdings Co.Ltd(600567) )
In terms of cost, the industry performance is impaired, the integration of industrial chain opens up growth space and maintains the "buy" rating. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 33.033 billion yuan (+ 32.29%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.516 billion yuan (+ 9.74%), and a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 1.200 billion yuan (- 16.10%). In 2021q4, the company achieved a revenue of 8.979 billion yuan (+ 13.19%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 209 million yuan (- 47.51%), deducting a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 258 million yuan (- 50.36%). The decline in net profit in a single quarter was mainly due to the rise in energy, power and transportation costs and the continued weakness of downstream demand. The net profit of 2021q4 company is under pressure, the profit forecast is lowered and the profit forecast for 2024 is added. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 1.567/18.07/2.011 billion (originally RMB 2.347/2.568 billion from 2022 to 2023), the corresponding EPS is RMB 0.34/0.39/0.44, and the current share price corresponds to PE is 8.9/7.7/6.9 times. The company actively focuses on its main business, continues to improve the layout of raw material channels, and the demand in the short-term peak season is expected to improve its profitability, The integration of medium - and long-term industrial chains has been gradually implemented, contributing to sustained growth and maintaining the "buy" rating.
Revenue splitting: the growth rate of box board paper slowed down, and the growth rate of packaging and corrugated paper increased significantly. According to products, the revenue of box board paper, packaging and corrugated paper of the company in 2021 was 13.6 billion yuan (+ 2.9%), 7.3 billion yuan (+ 50%) and 4.16 billion yuan (+ 84.2%) respectively, with positive growth year-on-year. Among them, the growth rate of box board paper revenue was slower than that of the whole, and the proportion of revenue decreased from 52.92% to 41.15%; Compared with 2020, the growth rate of packaging paper and corrugated paper increased significantly, and the proportion of revenue increased to 22.08% and 12.59% respectively. Under the integration and optimization of organizational structure, the volume and price of packaging business increased. In 2021, the sales volume increased by about 38% year-on-year and the average price increased by about 13% year-on-year.
The profitability of 2021q4 is under short-term pressure, and the marginal gross profit margin is expected to be repaired under the improvement of market supply and demand pattern in 2022: the overall gross profit margin of the company in 2021 was 12.2%, with a year-on-year increase of -4.5pcts, mainly due to the weak demand in the second half of the year and the rise of raw material costs. Expense rate: in 2021, the company's expense rate was 9.9% (- 1.2pct), and its ability to control expenses was excellent. Among them, the sales / management / R & D / financial expense rates were 1.1% (- 0.3pct), 4.1% (- 0.4pct), 2.6% (+ 0.5pct) and 2.1% (- 1.0pct) respectively. Net interest rate: in 2021, the net interest rate of the company was 4.59% (-0.94pct), and the net interest rate deducted was 3.63% (-2.10pct). The net interest rate of 2021q4 is 2.33% (-2.69pct), and the net interest rate excluding non net interest is 2.88% (-3.69pct). The net interest rate in one quarter is under pressure, mainly due to the rise of raw material cost in 2021h2. With the improvement of market supply and demand pattern in 2022, the profitability of the company is expected to be marginal repaired.
Risk tip: raw materials rose sharply, market competition intensified, and the company's production capacity was lower than expected.
