\u3000\u30 Beijing Telesound Electronics Co.Ltd(003004) 98 Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) )
Key investment points:
The company disclosed the annual report of 2021. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 6495406 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.31%, a net profit of -1340436 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 280.51%, diluted eps-2.11 yuan, and a weighted average roe of - 34.18%. In 2021, the company achieved overall profitability in the poultry sector, and the decline in performance was mainly due to the loss of pig breeding sector.
Although the pig sector suffered an overall loss in the year, the production efficiency showed an obvious improvement trend month on month in the year. In 2021, the company sold 13217400 pigs, a year-on-year increase of 38.47%, and the average sales price was 17.39 yuan / kg, a year-on-year decrease of 48.18%. In 2021, while the pig price cycle went down, the annual breeding cost of the company was at its own historical high level due to the rise in the price of feed raw materials, some purchased piglets, pig breeding optimization and other factors. From the trend of the year, the company's pig listing rate showed an obvious upward trend in the second half of the year, and steadily rebounded to about 85% for many consecutive months. In addition, the pigs released after the third quarter are mainly fattened by self-produced piglets, and the average number of healthy piglets in the delivery litter of the breeding farm is maintained at 10.1-10.3. With the improvement of the company's production efficiency, the breeding cost showed a gradual downward trend during the year. As of January 2022, the comprehensive cost has been reduced to less than 18 yuan / kg. In 2021, the company has made an impairment provision of about 2 billion yuan for the consumable biological assets and productive biological assets on hand, including the impairment of 1.907 billion yuan for breeding pigs.
The poultry sector achieved overall profitability. In 2021, the company sold 1.101 billion broilers, with a year-on-year increase of 4.76%. The average sales price of wool chicken was 13.20 yuan / kg, with a year-on-year increase of 13.50%. At the same time, it sold 579789 million ducks and 35000 tons of eggs. Although the price of feed raw materials rose significantly in 2021, the company achieved good results in optimizing feed formula and strengthening production technology management: the listing rate of broilers reached a record annual high of 94.75%, and the annual feed meat ratio decreased by 0.15 year-on-year; The overall listing rate of meat ducks increased by 5.02% year-on-year, and the feed meat ratio decreased by 0.07 year-on-year. Driven by cost reduction and efficiency increase and the improvement of broiler market, the company's poultry sector achieved good production results in 2021 and achieved overall profitability. From January to February 2022, the company's total cost of chicken slaughter was about 13 yuan / kg, and the cost control maintained a good trend. The company's overall total cost target of chicken slaughter in 2022 was 12.2 yuan / kg.
Profit forecast, valuation analysis and investment suggestions: it is estimated that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be -2.263/46.98/13.257 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of -0.36/0.74/2.09 yuan. At present, the corresponding PE of 2023 / 2024 is 29 / 10 times. We believe that the low point of the company's annual performance cycle may have passed, and it is expected to enter the upward cycle of annual performance in the future. We will give a "buy-b" rating for the first time.
Risk tips: the risk of pig and poultry epidemic, the risk of rising prices of raw materials, the risk of poor transportation caused by covid-19 epidemic, and the risk of natural disasters in the breeding base.
