\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 51 Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) )
Event: on April 18, the company released its first quarterly report. In the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved a revenue of 834 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.1%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 180 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.8%.
Core view: performance meets expectations. Steady growth in performance, proper cost control, increase in gross profit margin and enhance profitability. Looking forward to 2022, ① Chinese market: n-type battery began to replace the traditional mainstream p-type battery, entered the parallel expansion period of multi technology routes, and continued to drive the demand for equipment; ② Overseas market: hjt route has a large number of orders, and Maiwei has won a large order of 4.8gw of the whole line. Under the demonstration effect, the scale of overseas orders is expected to continue to grow. Up to now, the market share of public bidding for hjt core equipment has exceeded 70%, and the leading position of the company is stable. We believe that with the gradual promotion of the commercialization of hjt, the scale of orders on hand of the company continues to expand, and will enter the rhythm of "new orders, equipment delivery and revenue recognition", so as to lay the foundation for the stable growth of performance.
The performance maintained high growth, with abundant orders on hand, laying the foundation for high growth throughout the year: according to the information of the Ministry of industry and information technology, China's photovoltaic manufacturing industry maintained an overall growth trend. From January to February 2022, the national output of crystalline silicon cells reached 39.5gw. From the perspective of the whole year of 2022, it is expected to be a pattern of parallel production expansion of perc / TOPCON / hjt multi technology routes, which will continue to drive the demand for equipment. The scale of the company's orders on hand can be confirmed. By the end of the first quarter of 2022, the company's contract liabilities were 2.404 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.3%. Looking at hjt equipment alone, according to the statistics of public information, the total scale of hjt equipment orders obtained by the company in 2021 exceeds 5GW. According to the company's investment and customs records, these orders have received advance payment, and the shipment is expected to be completed by the end of June this year. At the same time, it is expected that the overall market order scale of hjt in 2022 will be between 20-30gw. In the future, the company is expected to enter the stable rhythm of new orders signed by hjt, continuous delivery and revenue confirmation, with sufficient driving force for performance growth.
Under the condition of maintaining high R & D investment, the profitability is enhanced: from the perspective of gross profit margin, in the first quarter of 2022, the company's sales gross profit margin was 40.55%, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.34pct and a month on month increase of + 2.25pct. The company achieved remarkable cost control through supply chain negotiation, design optimization, increasing localization rate and reducing cost; From the perspective of expense rate, in the first quarter of 2022, the company's expense rate during the period was 17.53%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.97pct, of which the expense rates of sales, management, R & D and finance were -0.08, -0.65, + 3.45 and -1.75pct respectively year-on-year. In addition to the increase of R & D expense rate, other expense rates decreased slightly, indicating the optimization of internal control and the increase of R & D investment intensity. In Q1 2022, the company's R & D expenditure was 93 million, an increase of 91% year-on-year, accounting for 11.17% of revenue. On the one hand, high R & D investment promoted the continuous iteration of screen printing and hjt core products, enhanced the competitiveness of core business and stabilized the market position; On the other hand, we continued to deepen the business layout of "three horizontal and three vertical" and made breakthroughs in the fields of semiconductor and panel laser. On the whole, in the first quarter of 2022, the company's net profit margin on sales was 20.91%, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.37pct and a month on month increase of + 0.66pct compared with the whole year of 2021, and the overall profitability remained improved.
Hjt's commercialization process is advancing steadily, and equipment leaders are expected to continue to benefit: from the perspective of overseas markets, North America, the Middle East, Japan, India and other regions have a higher preference for heterojunction components with high power generation efficiency and low BOM cost, and the overseas markets are also accelerating the improvement of localized photovoltaic cell manufacturing capacity. Rec has planned to have 15gw heterojunction capacity by 2023, and its parent company has recently signed a 4.8gw whole line purchase order with Maiwei, The overseas of hjt route shows a large-scale trend; From the perspective of the Chinese market, hjt has made orderly progress in cost reduction and efficiency improvement. The main hjt manufacturers are importing domestic low-temperature silver slurry in batches. Maiwei n-layer microcrystalline silicon equipment has been shipped Guangdong Golden Glass Technologies Limited(300093) . After the first round of microcrystalline process parameter optimization, the maximum conversion efficiency of the battery has exceeded 24.5% and the target efficiency is 25%.
In the future, hjt still has a large space for process optimization: ① efficiency: n / P double-layer microcrystalline silicon technology is expected to improve the average photoelectric conversion efficiency of hjt to 25.5%; ② Cost: on the one hand, there is a huge space to reduce the cost of consumables. Maiwei recently announced the laboratory results and successfully applied the low indium content TCO film scheme and silver clad copper technology without reducing the efficiency. According to our calculation, if mass production application is realized, the cost of hjt non silicon is expected to be reduced by more than 50%; On the other hand, the cost of silicon wafer is expected to be realized through silicon wafer thinning. According to CPIA, the average thickness of hjt silicon wafer in 2021 is 150 microns. In the future, hjt structure can support silicon wafers below 100 microns, and the cost reduction of silicon wafer is expected to exceed 30%. To sum up, with process optimization, cost reduction and efficiency improvement, the commercialization process of hjt is advancing steadily, and the company, as the leader of hjt whole line equipment, is expected to continue to benefit.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 4.32 billion yuan, 6.20 billion yuan and 8.9 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 39.4%, 43.7% and 43.5% respectively, and the net profit will be 856 million yuan, 1.258 billion yuan and 1.792 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 33.2%, 46.9% and 42.4% respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 65, 44 and 31 times respectively; Maintain the investment rating of "Buy-A", and the six-month target price is 385 yuan, which is equivalent to 37 times the dynamic P / E ratio in 2024.
Risk warning: the new downstream installed capacity is less than expected; The commercialization progress of hjt is less than expected; Intensified competition in equipment industry
