\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 195 Gongniu Group Co.Ltd(603195) )
Core view
In 2021, revenue grew steadily and gross profit margin declined. In 2021, the annual revenue was 12.385 billion yuan (+ 23.2%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.78 billion yuan (+ 20.2%). The gross profit margin and net profit margin were 37.0% (- 3.1%) and 22.4% (- 0.6%), which decreased significantly, mainly due to the rise in the price of bulk raw materials and the low short-term gross profit margin of new products. The rates of sales, management and R & D expenses are 4.5% (- 0.7%), 7.3% (- 1.0%) and 3.8% (- 0.2%). In the fourth quarter, the single quarter revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company were 3.372 billion yuan (+ 16.1%), 574 million yuan (- 19.7%), and the gross profit margin and net profit margin were 32.3% (- 9.3%) and 17.0% (- 7.6%).
The growth rate of electrical connection is stable, and the intelligent electrical lighting business is growing at a high speed; Category expansion accelerated. In 2021, the revenue from electric connection business was 6.413 billion yuan (+ 15.9%); The business income of intelligent electrician lighting is 5.551 billion yuan (+ 36.9%), of which the wall switch socket and LED lighting are 38.25 (+ 29.6%) and 1.066 billion yuan (+ 38.5%) respectively; The revenue of digital accessories business is 373 million yuan (- 10.8%). The gross profit margin of electrical connection and intelligent electrician lighting decreased due to the rise of cost, and the gross profit margin of digital accessories increased slightly. Product iteration: the electrical connection business is gradually expanded to industrial power distribution, and the new energy charging gun and charging pile are expanded; Wall switches and sockets still focus on decorating large panel products, and strengthen platform and modular design for b-end users; LED lighting introduces intelligent decorative lamps and eye table lamps outside the basic light source, and establishes an intelligent commercial lighting team to improve the overall design and experience of home lighting. We believe that the company is expected to continue to occupy more segments of civil electricians with affordable and high-quality products through its own lean R & D, manufacturing capacity and broad channel coverage.
C-end focuses on expanding decoration channels, and b-end strengthens service professionalism. Aiming at the C-end channel, the company further promotes the monopoly and integration of decoration channels, introduces the company's wall socket, LED lighting, intelligent door lock and other products, and has successfully developed more than 18000 terminal outlets. The b-end channel company focuses on improving the organizational ability, launching products suitable for the b-end channel and strengthening the service ability. During the period, the market development of home decoration and tooling made good progress, and the company reached cooperation with more than 120 well-known decoration enterprises such as Shengdu, Yezhifeng and shell. In 2021, the revenue of b-end channel increased by 175.2%.
Risk tip: the expansion of new energy and other sub circuits is not as expected; The company's channel expansion was less than expected, and the price of raw materials rose sharply or remained high.
Investment suggestion: raise the profit forecast and maintain the "buy" rating. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 3.33/39/4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20 / 17 / 14%; EPS is 5.53/6.45/7.35 yuan, and the corresponding valuation of the current stock price is 24 / 21 / 18 times PE. The company's various products continue to bring forth the old and bring forth the new, and the channel optimization has made good progress. It is expected to enter more civil electrician segments by virtue of its own R & D, manufacturing and channel advantages, so as to achieve long-term steady growth. Considering that the medium and long-term growth center of the company's performance may decline slightly after its scale expansion, the reasonable valuation range is reduced to 162.5-181.2 yuan, corresponding to 25-28 times PE in 2023, maintaining the "buy" rating.
