\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 137 Ningbo Boway Alloy Material Co.Ltd(601137) )
Revenue increased by 32.27% and net profit decreased by 27.66%. In 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 10.038 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.27%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 310 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.66%; The gross profit margin was 12.01%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.44%; The net interest rate was 3.09%, a year-on-year decrease of 45.31%; EPS is 0.39 yuan; The distribution plan is to distribute cash dividend of 1.70 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares. Q4 achieved an operating revenue of 2.663 billion yuan in a single quarter, a year-on-year increase of 36.08%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 48 million yuan, down 37.02% year-on-year; The gross profit margin is 12.28%.
The new materials sector was the main driver of performance growth, and the new energy sector dragged down the net profit: in 2021, the company’s total sales of new materials were 180800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.60%; The revenue reached 9.073 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.76%; The net profit was 391 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 41.36%, much higher than the sales growth, which was due to the steady increase in the proportion of the company’s high value-added products and R & D and transformation products. The sales volume of photovoltaic modules in the new energy sector was 246mw, a year-on-year decrease of 56.84%; The revenue was 767 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 46.92%; The net profit was -80 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 152.66%, mainly due to the sharp rise in sea freight caused by the global epidemic in 2021, the high price of raw materials represented by silicon materials caused by the outbreak of the industry, and the tariff imposed by the United States on double-sided components.
The new materials sector actively expanded production and welcomed the simultaneous rise of volume and price: the downstream of the company is 5g communication, semiconductor chip, new energy vehicle and other high boom industries, with a broad market space. The company has strategically expanded its high-end production capacity. It is estimated that the total production capacity of copper alloy will reach 267000 tons in 2023, an increase of 34.80% over 2021; It will reach 317000 tons in 2025, an increase of 59.95% over 2021. Key projects under construction at present: 1) 50000 ton special alloy strip project is expected to be completed by the end of June 2022; 2) 6700 ton aluminum welding wire project is promoting product certification and trial production; 3) Arrival, installation and commissioning of equipment for the implementation of bakenhov (Vietnam) 31800 ton rod and line project; 4) Alumina dispersion copper project realizes small batch supply; 5) The project of special materials for intelligent terminal lens has completed the benchmark customer test, and the production equipment commissioning is under way. The company continued research and development to improve the added value of products. In 2021, the single ton price of new material products was 43900 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 33.77%. The completion and gradual release of new production capacity will increase the price caused by the superposition of high added value. Driven by the strong demand in the downstream, it is expected to realize the simultaneous rise of volume and price.
The new energy sector is expected to achieve profitable repair: the resumption of tariff exemption for double-sided Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) battery modules in the United States is conducive to the normal operation of the company’s business. In the short term, the price rise caused by the rise of sea freight and the shortage of silicon materials will continue for some time; In the medium and long term, under the background of carbon neutralization, the photovoltaic track will continue to maintain a high boom. With the large volume of silicon materials in the second half of the year and the decline of sea freight, the new energy business segment of the company is expected to usher in profit restoration in the second half of 2022.
The first coverage gives buy-b rating: the company’s new material sales target in 2022 is 238500 tons, of which alloy strip, bar and wire rod are 65000 tons, 106000 tons and 34500 tons respectively, and precision filament is 33000 tons; The sales target of photovoltaic modules is 1000MW. Combined with industry judgment, the company’s 2022 sales target and the progress of projects under construction, we predict that the earnings per share from 2022 to 2024 will be 0.83 yuan, 1.15 yuan and 1.56 yuan respectively, and the return on net assets will be 12.4%, 15.1% and 17.4% respectively. The company continues to expand high-end production capacity and optimize product structure. High value-added products are expected to continue to bring profits to the company. Buy-b suggestions are given for the first coverage.
Risk warning: the release of production capacity is less than expected; The continuous rise in the price of raw materials leads to an increase in costs; International policy changes; Sea freight continues to rise; Downstream demand growth is less than expected; The overseas epidemic has a serious and sustained impact.
