\u3000\u300 Fawer Automotive Parts Limited Company(000030) 1 Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) )
In 2021, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 4.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 493%, the best level in history
The company achieved a revenue of 51.7 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 53%; The net profit was 5.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 506%
Acquire sierbang and extend c2c3 industrial chain
Sri Lanka uses methanol as raw material to produce propylene and ethylene through the 2.4 million T / a alcohol based polygeneration project. Downstream derivatives include 300000 tons of EVA, 170000 tons of MMA, 200000 tons of EO and 780000 tons of acrylonitrile. The phase II propane industry chain is still in the construction stage, including 700000 tons of PDH, two sets of 260000 tons of acrylonitrile (one of which has been put into operation) and two sets of 90000 tons of MMA. Through Sri Lanka injection, a diversified product structure of coordinated development can be formed.
In 2021, the demand of photovoltaic industry increased, which led to the rise of EVA products across the board. Sri Lanka achieved 340000 tons of EVA sales. According to our calculation, the net profit per ton of photovoltaic materials in 2021 was 4694 yuan. Since 2022, the overall market demand has been strong, the spot resources have been tight, the price of photovoltaic materials has been climbing, and the profit has increased from 3400 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 5600 yuan / ton. It is expected to maintain a high prosperity in 2022. The company continues to layout the EVA industry, and plans to have three sets of 200000 t / a photovoltaic EVA copolymer units and one set of 100000 t / a hot-melt EVA copolymer unit in the future.
The large-scale refining and chemical industry will be put into operation soon, which will help the second take-off
Shenghong refining and chemical integration project is implemented by Shenghong refining and Chemical Co., Ltd., with a design crude oil processing capacity of 16 million tons / year, a combined aromatics unit scale of 2.8 million tons / year (based on the output of p-xylene) and an ethylene cracking unit scale of 1.1 million tons / year. It is currently the largest atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit in China. After the completion of the project, it forms an integrated supporting with downstream 3.9 million tons of PTA and 2.6 million tons of differentiated fiber, and the competitiveness of polyester industrial chain is expected to be greatly improved. Po/sm, phenol / acetone and polyol projects with high added value are arranged in the downstream chemical industry chain to enhance the advantages of vertical integration through collaboration with the Sri Lanka industrial chain.
Polyester differentiated layout to highlight competitive advantages
At present, the company has 2.6 million T / a differentiated fiber capacity, including more than 300000 t / a recycled fiber capacity, mainly high-end DTY products. Projects under construction or planned to be built: a total of 2.45 million T / a differentiated fiber capacity, including 250000 T / a recycled fiber capacity. Rooted in the dislocation competition strategy, the company mainly focuses on the development and production of superfine fiber and differentiated functional fiber, with a product differentiation rate of more than 90%. It focuses on high-end DTY products, focuses on the development of recycled fiber green and low-carbon products, effectively avoids the fierce market competition of conventional chemical fiber products, and obtains excess returns based on the integration advantage
Profit forecast and rating: Based on the large-scale refining and chemical plants will be put into operation one after another, and we expect the prosperity of the petrochemical sector to gradually pick up, the profit forecast for 23 years will be raised from 9.5 billion to 14 billion yuan, the net profit for 22 / 23 / 24 years is expected to be 79 / 140 / 15 billion, and the current share price corresponding to PE is 10.3 / 5.8 / 5.4 respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating
Risk warning: risk of delayed commissioning of large-scale refining and chemical projects; Polyester industry chain competition intensifies risks; EVA profit weakening risk
