\u3000\u300 Fawer Automotive Parts Limited Company(000030) 1 Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) )
Core view
The performance in 2021 was in line with expectations, and Sri Lanka led to a significant increase in the overall performance. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 51.722 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 53.48%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.544 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 492.66%. The company completed the acquisition of sierbang at the beginning of the year. Sierbang achieved a net profit of 3.776 billion yuan in 2021, driving the significant improvement of the company's performance.
EVA particle price increase is the main factor of performance growth. Driven by the demand of downstream photovoltaic industry, the average price of EVA particles in 2021 was 20269 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 55%. At present, the price of domestic foaming materials in East China is about 245 Chengdu Xinzhu Road&Bridge Machinery Co.Ltd(002480) 0 yuan / ton, and the price of cable materials is about 265 Kunming Longjin Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002750) 0 yuan / ton. Since this year, the increase range is about 3 Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) 0 yuan / ton. According to Zhuo Chuang information, the pre tax gross profit of the industry is about 10000 yuan / ton. Considering the optimistic demand for the new installed capacity of photovoltaic in 2022, we believe that the EVA industry is still in a high business cycle within two years, and the EVA price will continue to rise. At present, the annual production capacity of sierbang EVA is 300000 tons, accounting for about 20.38% of China's total production capacity, of which the annual production capacity of photovoltaic grade EVA exceeds 200000 tons, accounting for about 28% of the global photovoltaic grade EVA production. The follow-up company will also plan 700000 tons of EVA devices, of which the photovoltaic level accounts for Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons, and continue to consolidate its leading position.
The large-scale refining and chemical industry will be put into operation soon, and the industrial chain will be extended to enhance the added value. The company's large-scale refining and chemical project is expected to be officially put into operation in the second half of this year. After the project is put into operation, the company will form an "integrated" business pattern of core raw material platform + diversified industrial chains such as new energy and new materials. At the same time, the company continues to plan the downstream production capacity of refining and chemical industry and layout the subdivided track of fine chemicals. It is expected that the performance of the company will be greatly improved in the next two years.
Three "million ton" projects lead the long-term development of the company. In 2022, the company will further promote the strategic transformation and layout of new energy and new materials on the basis of making full efforts to build three major projects: one million ton EVA photovoltaic new energy materials, one million ton acrylonitrile new materials and one million ton green degradable materials. At present, there are 700000 T / a PDH, 260000 T / a acrylonitrile, two sets of 90000 T / a MMA, 210000 T / a SAR and EO capacity expansion and transformation projects under construction in Sri Lanka. After the completion of technical transformation, 100000 t / a capacity can be added; 2.45 million T / a differentiated fiber capacity is under construction and planned to be built in polyester sector, including 250000 T / a recycled fiber capacity.
Risk warning: the commissioning of large-scale refining and chemical project does not meet the expectation; The risk of falling product prices; Landing risk of the planned project, etc.
Investment suggestion: considering the rise in the prices of upstream raw materials, crude oil and coal, we lowered the profit forecast accordingly. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 7 / 132 / 17.7 billion (the original forecast of 22 / 23 will be 10.2 / 16.2 billion), diluted EPS = 0.78/1.48/1.98 yuan / share, and the current stock price corresponds to PE = 17x / 9x / 7X, maintaining the "buy" rating.
