\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 110 Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) )
Event: the company released its 2021 annual report. In 2021, the operating revenue was 4.446 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 106.32%, of which 2021q4 operating revenue was 1.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.96% and a month on month decrease of 1.51%. In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 405 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7422%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 was 84 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 284.66% and a month on month decrease of 30.47%. In 2021, the net profit not attributable to the parent company was deducted by 375 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 842.6%, of which the net profit not attributable to the parent company was deducted by 79 million yuan in 2021q4, a year-on-year increase of 552.6% and a month on month decrease of 25.19%.
Copper foil products contribute mainly to revenue and gross profit. In 2021, the revenue of copper foil products was 4.086 billion yuan, accounting for 91.9% of the total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 116.4%; In 2021, copper foil products contributed 1.005 billion yuan in gross profit, accounting for 91.5% of the total gross profit. Trade, wire and cable and accessory products contributed 56 million yuan and 30 million yuan in turn, accounting for 5.1% and 2.7% respectively. The pricing mode of the company is “copper price + processing fee”. The copper price was high in 2021. Under the booming demand for lithium battery copper foil and the company’s continuous penetration into extremely thin copper foil, the processing fee also increased significantly. In 2021, the gross profit margin of copper foil products was 24.61%, an increase of 5.69 percentage points year-on-year.
Copper foil production capacity is the leading in China, and the long-term production capacity is planned to reach 185000 tons / year. According to the announcement of the company, the existing copper foil production capacity of the company is 43000 tons / year, of which the copper foil production capacity of Qinghai electronics, Qinghai Nord and Huizhou United are 25000 tons / year, 10000 tons / year and 8000 tons / year respectively. In 2021, the company’s copper foil production and sales were 356 / 35100 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 61.7% / 72.7% respectively. According to the statistics of China nonferrous metal processing industry association, the company’s copper foil accounted for about 14% of the country, which was at the leading level.
(1) the production capacity of incremental projects in 2022 will be increased to 70000 T / A: 1) Qinghai Nord copper foil production capacity of 15000 T / A is under construction and is expected to be put into operation in 2022; 2) According to the company’s announcement, the 12000 T / a new production capacity of the fixed increase project of Huizhou base has been debugged and mass production has been started, and the total production capacity after full production has been increased to 20000 t / A.
(2) in the future, the copper foil production capacity will be expanded to 185000 tons / year: 1) Qinghai Nord plans to build a fixed increase project, with a production capacity of 15000 tons / year of extremely thin lithium battery copper foil, which is expected to be put into operation in 2023; 2) Huangshi base plans to have a high-end lithium battery copper foil production capacity of 100000 tons / year and a phase I production capacity of 50000 tons / year. It is expected to be put into operation before June 2023.
Copper foil technology has profound accumulation, binding high-quality customer resources, and the release of production capacity can be expected. The company has been committed to the scientific and technological innovation of new energy and new materials for a long time. The copper foil technology has accumulated a deep accumulation. It has decisively adjusted the product structure according to the changes of customer demand, increased the production of 6 micron copper foil, and realized the technical upgrading and product application of less than 6 micron copper foil at the same time. According to the announcement of the company, the company has maintained stable cooperation with catl, Byd Company Limited(002594) , China Innovation airlines, Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) and other customers. At the same time, the company also supplies bulk products to overseas customers LG Chemical, Panasonic, ATL and ski. The company continues to consolidate the existing customer structure, do a good job in core customer services, and expand the new layout in the field of lithium battery copper foil. The production capacity is expected to continue to be released.
Actively carry out copper futures hedging to boost the release of operating profits. According to the announcement of the company, the company plans to carry out futures hedging business for non-ferrous copper involved in relevant projects, purchase, marketing and production business, and non-ferrous metal hedging business with a total position contract value of no more than 1.28 billion yuan or equivalent foreign currency amount and a margin of no more than 256 million yuan or equivalent foreign currency amount. The company actively carries out copper futures hedging, hedges the price risk of raw materials such as copper wire, and earns considerable processing fees, Or boost the release of operating profits.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company’s operating revenue to be 6.81 billion yuan, 9.163 billion yuan and 12.031 billion yuan respectively from 2022 to 2024, and its net profit to be 833 million yuan, 1.22 billion yuan and 1.785 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.48, 0.7 and 1.03 yuan / share respectively. At present, the corresponding PE share price is 21.5, 14.7 and 10.0 times. It is rated as “overweight-a”, with a 6-month target price of 13 yuan / share.
Risk tip: the price of raw materials fluctuates sharply, the demand is less than expected, and the project progress is less than expected
