\u3000\u30006 Guangdong Ganhua Science & Industry Co.Ltd(000576) 00057)
Key investment points
In 2021, the profit achieved high growth, and 22q1 is expected to continue further
In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 462.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 28.4%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.160 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 66.2%; The weighted average roe increased to 17.1%, year-on-year + 6.4pts. In terms of cash flow, the annual net operating cash flow was 5.42 billion yuan, an increase of 4.140 billion yuan year-on-year. Previously, the company released the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2022. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22q1 will be RMB 456470 million, a year-on-year increase of + 29% ~ 33%, and the high profit growth will continue.
The operation of bulk supply chain is stable and good
In the 21 years, the total volume of bulk supply chain business of the company was 192 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of - 6.7%. The overall gross profit margin was 1.9%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.1pts and a reduction of - 667 million yuan. After the profit and loss of futures hedging, we calculated that the gross profit per ton was 41.76 yuan, with an increase of 12.93 yuan year-on-year. Among them, the volume of metal mineral sector was 92.7 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of - 21.6%, a gross profit margin of 1.4%, and a year-on-year increase of + 0.14 PTS The cargo volume of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) sector was 14.52 million tons, with a year-on-year rate of - 8.9%, a gross profit margin of 4.4%, and a year-on-year rate of - 0.2pts; The volume of energy and chemical industry was 84.28 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of + 18.6% and a gross profit margin of 2.4%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.5pts.
The whole industry chain services have been promoted in depth, and the results of structural optimization, quality improvement and efficiency increase have been obvious
The company has achieved optimization in three aspects: customer structure, goods structure and profit structure:
1) customer structure: the proportion of strategic manufacturing customers will increase to 50%, and will gradually expand to small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises in the future.
2) goods type structure: from the perspective of bulk supply chain operation goods, the volume of metal minerals accounted for 48.4% in 2021, with a year-on-year decrease of 9.2pts Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) cargo volume accounted for 7.6%, with a slight decrease of 0.2pts year-on-year; The volume of energy and chemical products accounted for 44.0%, with a year-on-year increase of 9.4pts. The proportion of goods with higher gross profit margin increased, pushing up the gross profit.
3) profit structure: adhere to the transformation from "supply chain trader" to "industrial chain operator", and the service income and financial income account for 70%.
The unified big market policy is conducive to catalysis, and the leaders of bulk supply chain are expected to benefit
Recently, the central government proposed to speed up the construction of a national unified market, which may be catalyzed by policies:
1) build a unified factor market, actively ensure the stable supply of grain, energy and other products, break barriers and realize resource connectivity - the key guarantee areas are highly consistent with Xiangyu business.
2) optimize the logistics network, promote business circulation, and vigorously develop multimodal transport - Xiangyu has an all-round layout in the sea and land logistics network to open up the core hub of bulk commodities.
3) accelerate the digital transformation of logistics enterprises, cultivate digital platform enterprises and supply chain enterprises with global influence, promote the cost reduction and efficiency increase of logistics in the whole society - Xiangyu deeply cultivates the construction of digital intelligent supply chain, creates a "Lantau chain link" digital supply chain financial platform, and cooperates with ALI to build an agricultural industrial level Internet platform, which significantly improves the quality and efficiency of digital intelligent logistics services.
The relative growth of valuation is obviously low, with stable and high dividends, both offensive and defensive
From the perspective of growth, with the steady promotion of business model, the improvement of quality and efficiency of digital operation and the empowerment of 22-year equity incentive plan, the company's profit is expected to rise steadily. According to our prediction, the compound growth rate of net profit attributable to parent company from 2022 to 2024 is 17.7%, corresponding to peg = 0.42 1 in 2022, and the relative growth of valuation is obviously low. From the perspective of bottom support, the dividend proportion of the company in 2021 is about 55%. Assuming that the dividend proportion of the company will continue to maintain 55% from 2022 to 2024, we estimate that the total dividend income from 2022 to 2024 will reach 26.1%. Both offensive and defensive.
Profit forecast and valuation
We predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 2.593 billion yuan, 3.034 billion yuan and 3.525 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to 7.4 times, 6.4 times and 5.5 times of PE respectively. The multi-dimensional structure of the company was optimized to consolidate profitability and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the bulk price fluctuates violently; The promotion of industrial chain service model is less than expected; The international trade situation has deteriorated.
