\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 882 Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) )
Event overview
The company announced that 1q22 revenue was 1.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 35.2%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 73.52 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 130%.
Analysis and judgment:
1. The income and net profit of Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) q1 are above the center of the previous performance forecast range.
2. By product, Q1 cheese revenue was 1.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 50%. Among them, we judge that the revenue of cheese sticks is about 800 million yuan, which is still faster than the year-on-year growth of the overall cheese business sector, and Q1 itself is a low season. Q1 this year has improved from Q4 last year. We judged that the condition of low-temperature cheese sticks improved month on month compared with Q4 last year; Normal temperature cheese sticks are in the process of distribution, and the number of dealers of Q1 company has further increased by 327 to 5690. Since March, the epidemic has been repeated and the production capacity supply is expected to be tight. It is expected that the pace will be further accelerated after the subsequent epidemic is controlled. We judge that the income of other cheese is expected to be about 240 million yuan, maintaining a steady and rapid growth of about + 30% year-on-year. Among them, the family dining table line has made significant efforts this year and benefited from the epidemic and home consumption.
3. Q1 net interest rate was 5.7%, year-on-year + 2.4pcts, and the overall profitability was improved. In terms of splitting, the gross profit margin was + 0.1pct year-on-year. We judged that the gross profit margin of cheese business remained elevated and the liquid milk business was a drag on the overall gross profit margin. The sales expense ratio was -1.2pcts year-on-year, which was the main source of net interest rate improvement, reflecting the scale effect and expense control. It is expected that the net profit margin will continue to increase with the further improvement of sales scale.
Investment advice
The actual performance of Q1 is located above the early warning center. Under the pressure of off-season and epidemic situation, the performance of Q1 is really good. We maintain the revenue forecast of 6.6/85/10.5 billion yuan in 202224, the net profit attributable to parent company forecast of 4.3/6.9/93 billion yuan, and EPS forecast of 0.82/1.34/1.8 yuan. The closing price of 2022 / 4 / 18 is 34.22 yuan, corresponding to 42 / 26 / 19 times of P / E respectively. Maintain buy rating.
Risk tips
① the sales of new products at normal temperature is less than expected; ② The duration of the epidemic is too long; ③ Market competition intensifies risks; ④ Food safety issues.
