\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 496 Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) )
Key investment points
22q1 new contract amount and steel structure sales increased by 34% / 15% year-on-year
In terms of new signing: 22q1, the company signed 157 new contracts, with a cumulative contract amount of 4.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34%. By business type: 1) the new signing of industrial construction increased by 57%. From January to March 2022, according to the statistics of signed contracts, the company signed new industrial enterprise customer projects of 2.542 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57%. Industrial enterprise projects continued to grow at a high rate, mainly due to the strong demand of customers for capacity expansion, strong customer stickiness and high repurchase rate; 2) New public construction contracts increased by 11%. 22q1 company's newly signed public construction contract amount was 1.519 billion yuan, an increase of 11% year-on-year, mainly due to the rapid growth of public construction orders driven by infrastructure investment under the steady growth policy; 3) The new signing of EPC and prefabricated construction projects increased by 14%. 22q1, the newly signed contract amount of the company's EPC and prefabricated construction business was 383 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14%.
Sales volume: the company achieved 218200 tons of steel structure sales in 22q1, with a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, highlighting the high prospect of the main business of steel structure.
The performance of 22q1 is expected to increase by 25% ~ 50%, which is optimistic about the high growth of performance in 22 years
In 22q1, the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 165 ~ 199 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 25% ~ 50%, and a corresponding deduction of non net profit of 158 ~ 190 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 34% ~ 61%. The high increase of the company's 22q1 performance forecast is mainly driven by the following three factors: 1) the high increase of newly signed orders in 2021 is 13.3%, and the performance is guaranteed; 2) 22q1 company optimized internal control and efficiency, maintained stability of external steel price and alleviated cost pressure; 3) The company's digital and BIPV business development accelerated, thickened the main business performance, and drove the continuous high growth of business. The logic of steady growth is strengthened, and the company's 22q1 newly signed high growth is optimistic about the company's high growth in the whole year of 22 years.
The implementation of Risen Energy Co.Ltd(300118) strategic cooperation and the promotion of BIPV business are expected to increase
In the short term, the company cuts into the track of trillion building photovoltaic projects, and the pace of undertaking BIPV projects is expected to accelerate. Internally, on March 16, the company announced that it planned to set up a subsidiary, mainly engaged in distributed photovoltaic EPC business; Externally, on March 29, the company signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Risen Energy Co.Ltd(300118) Lvdian (Zhejiang) building materials company. The two sides intend to cooperate in the fields of BIPV product R & D, procurement, business cooperation and promotion to jointly develop BIPV roof products. The signing of the agreement is expected to promote the company's photovoltaic construction integration business process, enhance the company's differentiated competitive advantage and promote the company to become bigger and stronger. We estimate that the EPC market space of roof photovoltaic of existing buildings is about 960 billion yuan, and the market space of roof photovoltaic of new buildings is expected to exceed 83 billion yuan / year by 2025. As early as 2013, the company laid out the distributed photovoltaic business, led the construction of 7 ~ 8 million square meters of industrial plant roof every year, with access to tens of millions of square meters of roof resources, and has the qualification of general contracting of power engineering construction; In the medium and long term, under the "double carbon" strategy, BIPV is the main focus of carbon reduction in the construction industry. The company is expected to accelerate its transformation into a green and low-carbon building integration service provider by virtue of the technical advantages and channel advantages of distributed photovoltaic EPC engineering.
The 14th five year plan for green buildings was released, which is driven by supply and demand and is expected to benefit in depth
On the one hand, driven by policies, the demand space for prefabricated steel structures is expected to be further opened. On March 11, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development issued the "14th five year plan for building energy conservation and green building development", emphasizing the vigorous development of steel structure buildings and encouraging hospitals, schools and other public buildings to give priority to steel structure buildings. Under the "double carbon 1 + n" policy system, steel structures are expected to accelerate development with lower carbon emission intensity in the whole life cycle. According to the calculation of Zheshang Construction Group: the market space of China's prefabricated buildings is expected to exceed 5 trillion yuan in the next 10 years; On the other hand, the company has steadily expanded its production capacity and guaranteed supply. The company started construction in Lu'an, Anhui, Suqian, Jiangsu and Shaoxing, Zhejiang successively, with an annual production capacity of 200000 / 150000 tons of steel structures and 400000 square meters of fabricated buildings. At present, the company has production bases in Zhejiang, Anhui, Hubei, Guangdong, Shanghai and other places, basically completing the national layout. We believe that as the leader of steel structure engineering track, the company is expected to benefit from the two wheel drive of supply and demand.
Profit forecast and valuation
Considering the impact of newly signed orders and raw material price fluctuations on gross profit margin, based on the full prediction of various business data, we expect the company to achieve operating revenue of RMB 18.747 billion and 22.353 billion from 2022 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 23.08% and 19.24%, and net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 871 million and 1.094 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 25.29% and 25.57%, corresponding to EPS of RMB 0.43 and 0.54. The current price corresponds to 10.6 and 8.4 times of PE. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the penetration rate of steel structure fabricated buildings is lower than expected; The growth rate of fixed asset investment was lower than expected, and the promotion of BIPV in China was lower than expected.
