Key investment points
Electrical equipment 9135 fell 7.37%, weaker than the market. This week (from April 11 to April 15, the same below), industrial control automation rose 0%, power generation and power grid fell 1.97%, nuclear power fell 3.48%, new energy vehicles fell 5.39%, photovoltaic fell 5.7%, wind power fell 6.67%, lithium battery fell 7.86% and power generation equipment fell 10.12%. The top five gainers are Shanghai Hi-Tech Control System Co.Ltd(002184) , yishida, Ruikang shares, Beijing Dinghan Technology Group Co.Ltd(300011) , Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) ; The top five declines were Shandong Shida Shenghua Chemical Group Company Limite(603026) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Qingdao Tianneng Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(300569) , Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) .
Industry level: electric vehicles: China Automobile Association: 484000 new energy vehicles were sold in March, with a month on month ratio of + 114% / + 45% and a penetration rate of 21.7%; Passenger Federation: 455000 new energy passenger vehicles were sold in March, with a month on month ratio of + 122% / + 44% and a penetration rate of 25%; In March, China’s installed capacity was 21.4gwh, with a month on month ratio of + 138% / 57%, and iron lithium accounted for 62%; Weilai: Hefei production base is gradually resuming production; Tesla Shanghai plant will start the closed-loop mode and has notified employees to resume work Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) will apply for the “white list” of early resumption of work for subordinate enterprises to make preliminary preparations for resumption of production; The price of some models of Weilai increased by 10000 yuan; As of March, the number of charging facilities in China was 3.11 million, an increase of 74% year-on-year 30075 6 billion USD power battery industry chain project in Indonesia; Metal cobalt is quoted at 566700 yuan / ton, which is – 0.3% this week (month on month, the same below); nickel is quoted at 232700 yuan / ton, which is + 5.3% this week; manganese is quoted at 17500 yuan / ton, which is the same this week; metal lithium is quoted at 3.15 million yuan / ton, which is the same this week; battery grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 48044500 yuan / ton, which is – 7.2% this week; lithium hydroxide is quoted at 491000 yuan / ton, which is – 0.1% this week; industrial grade DMC dimethyl carbonate is quoted at 5400 yuan / ton, which is – 6.9% this week, The quotation of Sanyuan 622 cathode is 395000 yuan / ton, which is the same this week. The quotation of Sanyuan 811 cathode is 422500 yuan / ton, which is the same this week. The quotation of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 164500 yuan / ton, which is the same this week. The quotation of PVDF is 675000 yuan / ton, which is the same this week. The quotation of Sanyuan PVDF is 850000 yuan / ton, which is the same this week. New energy: General Administration of Customs: the export of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) batteries increased by 100.8% in the first quarter; The Indian ALMM policy will be extended for another 6-10 months after it takes effect; The State Council: effectively guarantee the safe supply of energy and accelerate the construction of a national unified energy market; National Energy Administration: 1) in March, the electricity consumption of the whole society reached 694.4 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%; 2) The number of hydrogenation stations in China ranks first in the world; Deeply interpret the challenges and Countermeasures of energy development in the 14th five year plan; Beijing: “14th five year plan” large public buildings may be forced to install photovoltaic Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) 182 silicon wafer increased by another 0.12 yuan; China’s largest Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) developer turns to n-type efficient components for the first time; According to solarzoom, the monocrystalline silicon material this week was 252 yuan / kg, unchanged month on month; The quotation of 166 / 182 / 210mm monocrystalline silicon wafer is 5.64/6.82/9.05 yuan / wafer, which is flat / + 0.44% / flat month on month; The quotation of single crystal perc166 battery is 1.12 yuan / W, unchanged month on month; The quotation of single crystal perc166 module is 1.87 yuan / W, unchanged month on month; The price of glass 3.2mm/2.0mm is 27.5/21.15 yuan / square meter, which is the same month on month. Industrial Control & Power Grid: in March, the industrial control company shipped 170 million servo products in Yaskawa, yoy – 51%; Panasonic 130 million, yoy – 13%; Delta 132 million, yoy – 18%; Low voltage inverter ABB 390 million, yoy – 5%; YASKAWA 86 million, yoy – 14%; Medium and large PLC Schneider 400 million, yoy + 25%.
Company level: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) : Sun company Putian times will work with its partners antam and IBI to build a battery whole industry chain project including laterite nickel ore development, pyrometallurgy, hydrometallurgy, ternary battery materials to battery recycling and ternary battery integration in Indonesia’s FHT Industrial Park, with a total investment of US $5.968 billion and a construction period of 5 years Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) : 2022q1 is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 4.607-4.918 billion, an increase of 35-45% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 679743 million yuan, an increase of 5-15% at the same time Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) : in 2022q1, the revenue is expected to reach 5.149 billion yuan, an increase of 229.71% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.409 billion yuan, an increase of 422% at the same time. Yichang Tianci, a subsidiary, plans to build a 300000 ton iron phosphate project (phase II), with a production capacity of 200000 tons, an investment of 1 billion yuan and a construction period of 9 months Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) : it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q1 2022 will be 248266 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 17% – 25.74% Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) : in 2021, the revenue was 7.982 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 86.37%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.718 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 143.60%. In 2022, the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q1 is expected to be 865950 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 100.19% – 119.86% Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) : Q1 revenue in 2022 was 3.131 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 80.00%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 637 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 90.28% Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) : in 2022q1, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 168178 million yuan, an increase of 92% – 103% at the same time; Deduction of non net profit of 160170 million yuan, an increase of 98% – 111% at the same time Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) : the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q1 in 2022 is expected to be 350400 million yuan, an increase of 135% – 168% at the same time Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) : in 2022q1, the revenue was 3.374 billion yuan, an increase of 561.88% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 762 million yuan, an increase of 140277% at the same time Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) : in 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.039 billion yuan, an increase of 35.31% at the same time. In 2022q1, the net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 700780 million, an increase of 346.32% – 397.33% at the same time Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) : 1) TCL group, the largest shareholder, increased its shareholding by 35.03 million shares, accounting for 1.08% of the total share capital; 2) In 2022q1, the revenue was 12.8-13.8 billion yuan, an increase of 71.52% – 84.92% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.26-1.36 billion yuan, an increase of 132.71% – 151.18% at the same time.
Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) : establish strategic cooperation with Wenzhou municipal government to promote the construction of world-class deep sea, megawatt and floating offshore wind power zero carbon headquarters base, and jointly invest about 18.8 billion yuan with other enterprises; Major shareholder harmony health insurance is expected to reduce its holdings of 254 million shares within six months, accounting for 6% of the total share capital Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) : in 2021, the revenue reached 8.166 billion yuan, an increase of 24.76% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.31 billion yuan, an increase of 9.91% at the same time Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) : in 2021, the revenue was 27.158 billion yuan, an increase of 20.93% and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.101 billion yuan, an increase of 125.69% Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) : the total operating revenue will be 8.7 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 17.9% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.2 billion, an increase of 28.3% at the same time. Among them, the revenue of 2021q4 was 2.573 billion yuan, an increase of 11.64% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 309 million yuan, an increase of 206.71% at the same time. (the “forecast” in this paragraph is the company’s forecast)
Investment strategy: Tesla, Weilai, SAIC and other auto companies are ready to resume work and production. The uncertainty of the industrial chain weakened from April to may, and it is expected to usher in significant repair. In March, there were 480000 electric vehicles in China, which was better than the market expectation. It is expected that in April, affected by the epidemic, the number of electric vehicles decreased by 20-30% month on month, and gradually recovered in May, maintaining 6 million + in the whole year (with an increase of 70%). In April, the industrial production scheduling was affected by the epidemic and was basically flat month on month. However, Q2 new cars were released intensively, and auto enterprises have begun to return to work. It is expected that the production scheduling will resume in May, the growth will accelerate in June, and the leader is expected to double the growth in the whole year. In March, Europe disclosed that the total sales volume of nine mainstream countries was 206000 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 7% / + 61%. Although the growth rate slowed down, the penetration rate was 23.0%, with a month on month ratio of + 5.8 / + 2.4pct. It is expected to increase by 30% to 2.8 million vehicles in the whole year; The United States sold 83000 electric vehicles in March, with a month on month ratio of + 66% / + 19%. If the policy is implemented in the middle of the year, the annual sales volume will double to 1.3 million +. It is estimated that the global sales of electric vehicles will be 10 million + (with an increase of 60%) in 22 years. 25 years ago, the average value of electric vehicles continued to increase. At present, the market expectation and valuation are obviously low. We are strongly optimistic about the oversold and reversal of the electric vehicle sector, and strongly push the leader in all links of lithium battery. The EU’s medium-term demand for photovoltaic is more optimistic, and it is expected to exceed market expectations in 2022. Household photovoltaic and energy storage are particularly popular. In 2022, the global photovoltaic installed capacity is 240250gw, an increase of nearly 50%, of which China is expected to be about 90gw, an increase of 65% +. From a micro point of view, the rise in module prices in April was partially transmitted, which affected logistics and installation under the epidemic, and the chain ratio of production scheduling was basically flat. It is expected that the production scheduling will improve significantly in May, and the recent decline has fully reflected the pessimistic expectation, The actual demand is very good and the growth is clear. We are strongly optimistic about components, inverter links and high-quality leaders. The domestic substitution of industrial control continued, and the boom began to pick up in December of 21. The growth of leading orders in 2022q1 exceeded market expectations, and it is optimistic about leading Huichuan in the medium term. After the rush to install wind power, the cost fell sharply and entered the era of parity. The land wind resumed growth in 22 years and the sea wind resumed growth in 23 years. Pay attention to new export opportunities after parity. The investment in power grid is expected to increase steadily, focusing on the structural opportunities brought by the new power system.
Key recommended targets: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (global leader in power batteries, high-quality customers, leading technology and cost advantage), Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) (overall layout of power lithium batteries and steady growth of consumer batteries), Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) (global leader in wet diaphragm and strong profitability), Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) (global leader in cathode and diaphragm coating), Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) (global leader in monocrystalline silicon chips and components and strong comprehensive strength) Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) (integrated component leader, profit elasticity in 2022), Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) (series inverter leader, energy storage inverter explosion), Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) (Electrolyte & hexafluoride leader, new lithium salt leader), Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) (global leader in structural parts, high-quality customer discharge, high increase period), Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) .(210 component faucet, user system burst) Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) (high nickel positive electrode faucet, high capacity release and high growth period), Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) (iron and lithium demand supermarket expectation and profit exceeding expectation), Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) (gradual recovery of general automation demand and comprehensive breakthrough of powertrain), Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) (carbon nanotube conductive agent faucet, entering the upper volume stage), Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) (positive electrode steady faucet, strong profitability and low valuation) Byd Company Limited(002594) (the sales volume of electric vehicles continues to exceed the market expectation and the external supply of blade batteries accelerates), Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) (the global leader of inverter and the forward-looking layout of energy storage), Hemai (the shipment of micro inverter is expected to double continuously and the U.S. market begins to increase in volume), Hongfa Technology Co.Ltd(600885) (the global leader of new and old relays and the expectation of supermarkets in 2021), Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) (the global leader of thermal management and the underestimation of steady growth) Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) (electrolyte and fluorochemical industry go hand in hand with low valuation), Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) (cobalt salt faucet and positive prepolymer faucet), Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) (global leader of ternary prepolymer and rapid production expansion of customers with high quality), Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) (high growth of distributed inverter and power of energy storage business), Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) (EVA and Poe faucet and photosensitive dry film loading) A Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) \company, China Leadshine Technology Co.Ltd(002979) , Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) , Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , Arctech Solar Holding Co.Ltd(688408) . Suggestions and concerns: crystal energy, Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 460 etc.
Risk tip: the investment growth rate is declining, the policy is lower than the market expectation, and the price competition is higher than the market expectation
