The issuance of consumption vouchers to residents in many regions is expected to boost terminal consumption and benefit retail channels significantly
This week (April 12), Beijing issued a policy to promote green and energy-saving consumption. It plans to issue more than 300 million yuan of green and energy-saving consumption vouchers to consumers in Beijing from April to September 2022. In addition to Beijing, since 2022, we have also seen a series of consumption promotion policies issued by the governments of Hubei, Sichuan, Shaanxi and other places, among which the issuance of consumption vouchers is the most direct. By reviewing the cases of issuing consumption coupons in Hangzhou in 2009 and Zhengzhou in 2022, it can be found that the issuance of consumption coupons by the government can not only significantly stimulate consumption, but also have a certain directional aggregation effect. Shopping malls, supermarkets, home appliance chain stores, e-commerce platforms and other retail channels have benefited significantly. Specifically, consumption vouchers cover many areas of the consumer industry, such as rice noodles, grain and oil, optional consumption such as home appliances and cars, and hotel tourism. This round of government led issuance of consumption vouchers will inject a shot in the arm into the industry as a whole. Direct and effective financial subsidies are expected to boost consumer confidence and consumption power in the short term, curb the spread trend of low consumption desire in the post epidemic era and promote consumption recovery. In addition, the current round of consumption voucher activities in various regions also reflects the obvious characteristics of government enterprise linkage, with the participation of many companies. Taking Beijing as an example, the government designated 10 companies such as jd.com, Suning, Dazhong and Gome as the cooperation platform for consumption vouchers of household appliances and other categories. Through such cooperation forms, large channel providers are expected to realize the growth of passenger flow and customer orders. As an important offline retail channel, supermarkets also play a key role in promoting consumption. In particular, industry leading companies, relying on the advantages of channel scale and brand influence, attract more passengers to the store under the stimulation of consumption vouchers and promote the further improvement of industry fundamentals. Representative companies include national leading companies Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) , regional leading companies Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) , Chengdu Hongqi Chain Co.Ltd(002697) (convenience stores), etc.
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Plate Market Review
This week (from April 11 to April 15), the retail trade index closed at 273255 points, up 3.12%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index (down 1.25% this week) by 4.37 percentage points, ranking third among the 31 primary industries. Among the retail segments, the supermarket segment performed better this week, with the largest increase since the beginning of 2022. In terms of individual stocks, Better Life Commercial Chain Share Co.Ltd(002251) (60.9%), Fujian Dongbai (Group) Co.Ltd(600693) (31.5%) and Nanjing Central Emporium (Group) Stocks Co.Ltd(600280) (29.9%) rose higher this week.
Investment suggestion: focus on cosmetics, medical beauty, gold jewelry and supermarket
Investment main line 1 (cosmetics): continuous verification of large single product + multi-channel logic, focusing on recommending domestic beauty leaders Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) , Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) , and cosmetics raw materials leaders of beneficiary objects Nanjing Cosmos Chemical Co.Ltd(300856) etc;
Investment main line 2 (medical beauty): focus on recommending leading medical beauty products Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) , Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) ;
Investment main line 3 (gold jewelry and supermarket): pay attention to the increase of the market share of gold jewelry head brands, and highlight Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) , Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , DEA shares. In addition, pay attention to the marginal improvement of the operation of supermarket enterprises.
Risk tips: macroeconomic risks, repeated epidemics, intensified industry competition, etc.
