Key investment points
General view and recommendation of the industry: Securities Companies: frequent policies, optimistic about the long-term development of securities companies. ① A series of policies to promote the construction of securities companies and capital markets (insurance funds, new regulations on income swaps, comprehensive accounts and the full implementation of the registration system) have been introduced one after another, which is beneficial to ficc, wealth management and the industrial chain of large investment banks. ② The uncertainty of long-term profit center has increased: the wealth management business has continued to grow, and the channels, products and investment advisers have benefited deeply; The scale of derivatives maintained rapid growth, new products were launched one after another, the superposition system continued to be standardized, and ficc constituted the core increment; The construction of multi-level capital market has accelerated, and the science and innovation board and the Beijing stock exchange have brought new increment. At the same time, the reform of the registration system has also brought dividends to the stock business system. ③ There is a great contrast between the fundamentals and policies of securities companies and the valuation. The profits of securities companies continue to reach a new high. Relative to roe, they are close to the level of the previous bull market (20152016), but their valuation is still at the bottom 1 / 4 of the historical valuation. We are optimistic about the long-term allocation value of securities companies. Insurance: the inflection point of property insurance boom is established, and attention is paid to the catalysis of real estate policy end repair to sector valuation repair. Affected by the high base of the same period and the spread of epidemic situation all over the country, the debt side of 1q22 listed insurance companies performed poorly, which basically met the previous low market expectations. Under the joint influence of the dislocation of the Spring Festival and the high base, it is expected that the average value of 1q22 listed insurance companies will decline by more than 25%, and Guoshou and Ping An are slightly better than their peers. In terms of property insurance, the basic trend is good, which is significantly better than life insurance. The inflection point of premium growth in the industry has reached. The volume and price of auto insurance premiums in 1q22 single quarter are expected to maintain a double-digit rapid recovery growth of 10% + and the comprehensive cost rate of PICC auto insurance is expected to remain within 98% due to the benign competition in the industry and the strength of market fee rate after flood. Since March, the real estate sector has shown signs of strength, which is expected to alleviate the market's concerns about the asset quality of domestic insurance enterprises. Soochow Bank of Africa's recommended sectors: securities, insurance, recommended stock combinations [China stock market news], [ China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) ] (Hong Kong stocks), [China Property Insurance] and [far east Hongxin].
Important changes and comments in the industry: 1) the CSRC, SASAC and all China Federation of industry and Commerce issued a notice on further supporting the healthy development of listed companies: This notice highlights the importance of steady growth, which will comprehensively help create a good environment for the capital market, enhance the return of value and further boost market confidence. In terms of stabilizing enterprise expectations, the notice gives full support to private enterprises in listing financing, bond financing and other financing methods, which will help private enterprises alleviate financing difficulties and stimulate their vitality and creativity. In terms of stabilizing investor expectations, the notice actively encourages listed companies to enhance the sense of acquisition of investors and boost investor confidence by means of repurchasing shares, increasing the proportion of cash dividends and actively holding performance meetings, So as to further maintain the stable development of the capital market. 2) The central bank released the statistical report on the stock of social financing scale in March 2022: at the end of March, the stock of social financing increased by 10.6% year-on-year, the growth rate rebounded by 0.4 percentage points, and the cumulative increment of social financing in the first quarter was 12.06 trillion yuan. With the support of the steady growth policy, banks have increased credit, and the growth rate of social finance and new RMB loans have rebounded. However, the epidemic has formed certain constraints on the economy and financial market. Although the real estate policy has been marginally relaxed, it has not been transmitted to the data end.
Risk tips: 1) the macro economy is less than expected; 2) Policy tightening inhibits industry innovation; 3) Market competition intensifies risks.
