Core recommendation
Key points of basic chemical industry
; The titanium dioxide ( Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 002is the date of the 3535 \ ) etc.
Key points of petrochemical industry
OPEC + joint production reduction forms the bottom support of oil price, but we still need to pay attention to the impact of non OPEC production (Canadian heavy oil, Brazil and Central Asia), global macroeconomic downside risk and further fermentation of trade risk on oil price. It is recommended to accelerate the integrated construction of polyester industrial chain and enter into large-scale refining and excellent private refining enterprises with C2 / C3 light hydrocarbon cracking ( Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , satellite chemistry, Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) );
Pay attention to Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) .
Weekly industry update
This week, the price index of chemicals fell, the oil price of core raw materials rose, LPG gas rose, LNG gas fell, and coal prices fell; C5. The price of chemical fertilizer and phosphorus chemical products increased.
This week, China’s chemical price index ccpi-0.9%; The price of core raw materials is oil distribution + 8.7%, imported LPG + 6.8%, domestic LNG – 9.1% and bituminous coal – 15.4%.
On the raw material side, the prices of some products of C5 rose, while the prices of some products of C1, C3, C4 and aromatics fell; On the product side, the prices of some chemical fertilizers and phosphorus chemicals rose, while the prices of some chlor alkali, polyurethane, plastics and vitamins fell.
Oil prices rose this week, Russia Ukraine negotiations stalled again, and supply risks appeared again.
This week, the settlement price of oil distribution rose from 102.8 to 111.7 US dollars / barrel (up 8.7%), and the settlement price of American oil rose from 98.3 to 107.0 US dollars / barrel (up 8.8%); US commercial crude oil inventory was 422 million barrels (mom + 2.3%), and the number of US crude oil drilling wells was 548 (mom + 0.4%).
On the supply side, according to Longzhong information, the situation in Russia and Ukraine is anxious again. In addition, the impact of the release of strategic reserves by the International Energy Agency has been gradually digested by the market, and the negotiation on the Iranian nuclear issue has not yet been implemented. On the demand side, according to Longzhong information, the OPEC monthly report lowered the global crude oil demand forecast of 410000 barrels / day this year, and the hidden worries about demand caused by the recent Asian epidemic continued. In terms of policy, according to Longzhong information, the Federal Reserve has started the interest rate increase cycle, which is good for the US dollar and bad for oil prices in the long term, but the impact effect is limited in the short term. Geopolitically, according to Longzhong information, the situation in Russia and Ukraine remains the focus of attention. At present, the progress of negotiations has stalled again, and the possibility of military conflict aggravating again cannot be ruled out.
Natural gas price tracking:
Price tracking: European and American natural gas futures rose and fell this week, with NBP – 11.00%, TTF – 1.35%, HH + 16.09% and AECO + 12.47%. In terms of spot, HH spot was + 10.07% month on month; Canada AECO spot chain was + 17.14%, while Europe TTF spot chain was – 4.79%. In terms of price difference, the average spot arrival price of LNG in Northeast Asia was 10108 yuan / ton, a month on month ratio of – 4.36%, and the average sales price at the terminal was 7988 yuan / ton, a month on month ratio of – 292 yuan / ton (- 3.53%).
Inventory tracking: according to the EIA data this week, as of April 8, the U.S. natural gas inventory was 1397 billion cubic feet, a month on month increase of + 15 billion cubic feet (a month on month increase of + 1.09%, a year-on-year increase of – 23.90%), lower than the five-year average. According to the data of the European Natural Gas Infrastructure Association, as of April 8, the European natural gas inventory was 1023306 billion cubic feet, a month on month increase of + 40.029 billion cubic feet (a month on month increase of + 4.07%, a year-on-year increase of – 11.57%).
China price: China LNG continued to decline this week. As of April 14, the average price of LNG in main producing areas was 6855 yuan / ton, down from – 7.25% last week; The prices of consumer places went down simultaneously. As of April 14, the average price of major LNG consumer places was about 7591 yuan / ton, down – 6.02% from last week. The quotation of LNG terminal is 8641 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of – 1.65%.
View update of key chemicals:
Price rise and fall of chemicals:
The important products with the highest price increase this week are glufosinate + 10%, diammonium phosphate + 5%, R125 + 5%, caprolactam + 3%, monoammonium phosphate + 3%, acetonitrile + 3%, sodium tripolyphosphate (industrial grade) + 3%. The important products with the highest price decline this week are liquid chlorine-46%, formaldehyde-12%, dmf-12%, melamine-8%, tetrachloroethylene-8%, r142b-8%, dimethyl carbonate dmc-7%.
Price rise and fall of upstream chemicals of new energy:
Chemicals related to photovoltaic industry chain: industrial silicon – 2%, trichlorosilane, soda ash (light and heavy), vinyl acetate, EVA (photovoltaic grade) + 2%.
Chemical products related to lithium battery industry chain: phosphate rock (30%) is the same, phosphoric acid is the same, lithium carbonate (industrial grade – 7%, battery grade – 8%), iron phosphate is the same, industrial monoammonium phosphate (73%) is the same, lithium hexafluorophosphate – 2%, etc.
Downstream procurement is urgent, spot supply is tight, and the price of glyphosate is rising.
Glyphosate rose 10.0% to 192500 yuan / ton this week. On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, it is currently in the peak season of overseas demand. In view of the low timeliness of shipping, some orders are issued in advance and downstream procurement is urgent, resulting in good demand; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the current orders of China’s mainstream manufacturers are scheduled to May June 2022, and the spot supply in the market is tight.
Fertilizer for spring ploughing is imminent, there are many maintenance devices, and the price of diammonium phosphate rises.
Diammonium phosphate (64%, Yangtze River Delta) rose 5.4% to 3900 yuan / ton this week. On the cost side, sulfur (Zhenjiang port) rose 2.1% to 3460 yuan / ton and liquid ammonia (Shandong) rose 1.9% to 4550 yuan / ton this week, forming cost support; On the demand side, according to Yingfu of Baichuan, fertilizer for spring farming market is imminent, and the downstream demand is maintained; On the supply side, according to the fact that Baichuan Yingfu and Yunnan shuhuan shut down the diammonium plant due to the problem of raw material synthetic ammonia, the resumption time is uncertain, the Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co.Ltd(600470) plant in Hubei Province is temporarily shut down for maintenance, the maintenance time is one week, the dadiyuntian plant in Inner Mongolia is temporarily shut down, the resumption time is to be determined, and the diammonium plant in northern Shandong Province is temporarily shut down for maintenance, which is expected to be overhauled for about one month, forming a favorable supply side.
Downstream production scheduling increased and some large factories were overhauled, pushing up the price of R125.
R125 (Zhejiang) rose 5.4% to 39000 yuan / ton this week. On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the output of downstream terminal enterprises has increased, but the after-sales market is affected by local control and transportation capacity obstruction, the overall recovery is weak, and the demand for downstream mixed distribution has increased; On the supply side, according to the shutdown of Baichuan Yingfu and Jiangsu Meilan chemical’s 10000 ton R125 unit, there is no restart plan in the short term. At present, the 40000 ton unit of Sanmei chemical is shut down for maintenance. Affected by the maintenance of large factories, the on-site supply is reduced and the spot is tight.
The downstream maintained rigid demand, the manufacturers concentrated on reducing the burden, and the price of caprolactam increased.
Caprolactam (East China) rose 3.3% to 13900 yuan / ton this week. On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the market price of downstream slices increases with the price of raw materials, and the overall transaction is acceptable. The polymerization plant mainly needs to purchase raw materials caprolactam; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, at present, the phenomenon of caprolactam manufacturers’ parking and load reduction is relatively concentrated, and the overall operating level of the market has fallen to less than 70%. At present, the devices of manufacturers in Shanxi, Shandong, Jiangsu and Hebei provinces are in the state of parking and maintenance, and a new line of a large factory in Jiangsu is added for parking and maintenance within the week, which is favorable.
High level consolidation of compound fertilizer, blocked supply and circulation, and the price of monoammonium phosphate increased.
Monoammonium phosphate (55% powder, Jiangsu) rose 3.0% to 3730 yuan / ton this week. On the cost side, sulfur (Zhenjiang port) rose 2.1% to 3460 yuan / ton and liquid ammonia (Shandong) rose 1.9% to 4550 yuan / ton this week, forming cost support; On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, China’s compound fertilizer market continues to consolidate at a high level; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the current enterprise starts stably, mainly sends early orders, and the inventory is low. Affected by the current epidemic, the freight circulation is blocked and the spot is tight.
Risk warning: the price of raw materials fluctuates, and the downstream demand is less than expected.
