Key investment points
Thermal coal: this week (4.8-4.15), the closing price of QinGang closed back in the off-season. The daily report on the 15th closed at 1135 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 10.63%, but the price rebounded month on month on the 15th Guangzhou Port Company Limited(601228) 5500 Shanxi excellent mixing warehouse raised the price to close at 1385 yuan / ton, with a weekly change of – 4.81%, and the annual price center increased by 14.23% compared with last year. The inventory of port and downstream power plants continues to be replenished. The off-season characteristics of thermal coal are obvious, and the price falls with the demand. Pay attention to the release speed of supply.
Metallurgical coal: the price of metallurgical coal was flat this week. The port’s main coking coal 15 daily closed at 3350 yuan / ton, the price of imported coking coal rose by 0.00% weekly, and the import price difference remained at 330 yuan / ton. De inventory of ports and terminals. The price of Shanxi injection coal was the same as last week, closing at 2050 yuan / ton. Downstream maintenance to the warehouse. On the demand side, the price of secondary coke produced in Linfen closed at 3480 yuan / ton on the 15th, up 6.10% in the week, and the operating rate of coke oven was 75.7%, down 2.60 percentage points from last week. The coke inventory of coking plant and port increased, and the coke inventory of steel plant decreased. The steel price closed at 5115 yuan / ton, down 0.39% this week, and the operating rate of Tangshan blast furnace was 79.16%, down 0.74 percentage points from last week. In the context of steady growth, demand expectations continued to improve. The central bank decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on April 25. At the same time, some cities have recently relaxed real estate regulation.
Overseas markets: under the background of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the global coal trade pattern was reconstructed, and overseas coal prices rose sharply. After the escalation of geopolitical friction, countries have conducted a series of games in the field of energy, which has a far-reaching impact on broad-spectrum energy. In this context, the trend of reconstruction of global coal trade pattern is almost irreversible. After the change of local trade pattern at this stage, the increase of overseas coal price is significantly higher than that of China. This is mainly caused by two factors. First, structural demand impacts the supply and demand of producing areas. Second, the increase of transportation costs under the new pattern.
Equity view: the coal sector rose 6.8% this week, leading the whole industry. From the fundamental point of view, different coal types show obvious differentiation. The power coal has a seasonal correction, and the demand for metallurgical coal is expected to continue to improve. In the process of reshaping the global coal trade pattern or under the new pattern, overseas coal prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall. At the same time, it can form a more powerful support for China’s coal prices, and Chinese coal enterprises are expected to maintain a high boom. Since the first quarter, prices have risen continuously and remained high, and trading sentiment has been rising. According to the forecast of the first quarter report currently released, the performance of each company in the first quarter exceeded market expectations. In the future, as listed companies release their performance one after another, the dynamic valuation of the sector is still low, and there is some room for repair. It is suggested to pay attention to Yankuang energy, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) ; It is suggested to pay attention to Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) .
Credit view: the fundamentals are improved and the solvency of coal enterprises is improved. In terms of primary issuance, with the continuous issuance of energy guarantee bonds recently, although the financing has improved, it is still difficult for low-grade and weak qualified subjects to issue. In the secondary market, the interest rate spread has expanded by 5bp recently, but it remains low as a whole, in which the quantile of low-grade interest rate spread is differentiated from that of medium and high-grade interest rate spread. Investors maintain a cautious attitude towards low-grade and weak qualified enterprises. Considering that the current medium – and high-level interest rate differentials are low and there is limited room for exploration, it is better to choose the right time or take the best policy. For exposure, good debt deregulation and improved debt structure can be considered. Coal bonds have no worries but have foresight. It is suggested to pay attention to the impact of resale pressure on coal bonds in 2022.
Risk warning: strong price control; recession; Supply release exceeds expectations; Overseas coal prices fell sharply; Other disturbance factors.
