Key investment points
Market last week: light industry manufacturing sector index fell. From April 11, 2022 to April 15, 2022, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.25%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 2.60%, and the light industry manufacturing index fell by 2.62%, ranking 14th among the 28 Shenwan industries; The rise and fall of light industry manufacturing index sub sectors from high to low are packaging and printing (- 5.10%), papermaking (- 3.32%) and household goods (- 0.95%).
Furniture: resume the post epidemic repair market in 2020 and continue to prompt the home sector for valuation and repair opportunities. After reviewing the post epidemic repair market since 2020q2, we reiterate that: 1) under the influence of the epidemic, the demand for furniture will only be delayed and will not disappear, and the top enterprises can observe the replenishment of demand at the order level within 1-2 months after the epidemic is controlled, Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) , Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) and other 2020q2 revenue growth has turned positive. 2) The epidemic has a greater impact on small and medium-sized enterprises. The industry concentration in the post epidemic repair stage has accelerated. The proportion of the revenue of finished products and customized listed companies in the operating revenue of furniture manufacturing industry in a single quarter has increased from 11.9% in 2020q1 to 15.0% in 2020q4. 3) From the perspective of the market, the repair of stock price is earlier than the repair of performance, and the repair elasticity of leading companies is large. The highest increase in the range of Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) (+ 64%), Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) (+ 82%), Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) (+ 56%), Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) (+ 59%) 2020q2-3 ranks top in the industry. At the same time, the marginal relaxation of real estate policy has continued: since the beginning of 2022, more than 60 cities have issued stable real estate policies. In many places, the real estate easing policy has been increasing from relaxing loan requirements, reducing mortgage interest rates to liberalizing purchase and sales restrictions. With the relaxation of real estate policy and the gradual control of the epidemic, the valuation of the home sector is expected to continue to repair. [ Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ], which is recommended to consolidate the leading position of overall high growth; The pioneer of retail reform and the increasingly clear route of big home [ Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ]; [ Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ], which is expected to accelerate retail under management improvement and overall strategy; [ Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) ] and the functional sofa leader [Minhua holdings] with low valuation, which accelerate the expansion of independent brands, suggest paying attention to [ Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) ], [ Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) ].
E-cigarette: the industry supervision is advancing steadily, and we are optimistic about the orderly development of the e-cigarette industry. On April 13, 2022, the State Administration of market supervision and the relevant departments of the state tobacco monopoly administration answered questions related to the supervision of e-cigarettes, and made clear responses to issues such as the scope of industry supervision, transition period, license application and trading platform. The reply made it clear: 1) zero nicotine products are not allowed to enter the market; 2) The policy transition period lasts until September 30, 2022; 3) E-cigarette production and brand enterprises that have completed registration on November 10, 2021 can submit license application intention from May 5, 2022; 4) The registration of electronic cigarette retail outlets can be completed from 2021 / 2021 / 2022; 5) Since June 15, 2022, we have gradually begun to build a national unified e-cigarette trading management platform for trading. With the extension of the transition period, the industry is expected to achieve a smooth transition, and the head enterprises of the stock license application system may benefit. Recommend [SIMORE international] with outstanding valuation cost performance after the callback; It is suggested to pay attention to [fog core technology] which is expected to continue the advantages of brand and user volume.
Papermaking: continue to recommend [ Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) ], and gradually restore the profitability of head paper enterprises. In terms of price, as of April 15, the latest price of waste paper was 2347 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 5 yuan / ton; The latest price of wood pulp is 7125.2 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 119 yuan / ton. The latest price of carton board paper is 4867 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 8 yuan / ton; The latest price of corrugated paper is 3812.5 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 6 yuan / ton; The latest price of white cardboard was 6450 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 65 yuan / ton; The latest price of whiteboard was 5067.5 yuan / ton, unchanged on a week-on-week basis; The latest price of double copper paper was 5680 yuan / ton, unchanged on a week-on-week basis; The latest price of double offset paper was 6237.5 yuan / ton, unchanged on a week-on-week basis. The high cost of pulp promotes the rise of the price of cultural paper, the impact of double reduction and the new capacity in 2021q4 is gradually digested, and the profitability of cultural paper is expected to hit the bottom. It is recommended that [ Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) ]: the valuation has a margin of safety, the forest area of Laos base continues to grow, and the cost advantage and risk resistance are improved under the integration of Forest Pulp paper.
Risk tip: power rationing policy affects production capacity, raw material price fluctuations, intensified Sino US trade frictions, weak downstream demand, etc
