The price of East China market is very high in the off-season, the demand for quick freezing is good, and the supply is limited
From April 11 to April 15, the food and beverage index rose by 4.4%, ranking first in the primary sub industry, outperforming Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 by about 5.4pct. Among the sub industries, pre processed food (18.9%), beer (9.1%) and baked goods (8.4%) are relatively leading. The market is more concerned about the situation of Baijiu market in eastern China. We believe that the impact of the epidemic on the sales volume of Baijiu in the East China market is still under control. We estimate that the total sales of Baijiu in 3-4 months in the normal year will be about 10%, which will not affect the whole year. At present, due to the impact of the epidemic in most parts of East China, the dynamic sales are not smooth, but most wineries have not forced the pressure of goods, and the current channel inventory is low. Some high-end liquor enterprises carried out price support measures in March, including the control and punishment of fleeing and low-cost goods; Dealers greatly affected by the epidemic can choose to delay payment collection or cancel the planned amount of the current month. Under the influence of the epidemic Baijiu high-end liquor measures have been discounted, is expected to ease the effect of the epidemic will be gradually reflected. If the epidemic situation is properly controlled, Baijiu has compensatory consumption, and coke outlook is still expected.
Under the background of epidemic disturbance, we judge that the demand of quick freezing industry is acceptable. Although the demand of to B end fluctuates, to C end benefits. The supply of quick-frozen industry is limited to some extent. In some regions, the channel is out of stock due to the logistics embargo. For example, the sales of lock fresh products in Beijing, Shanghai and other regions have a great impact. Considering the cost increase and insufficient capacity utilization, the profits of quick-frozen food enterprises are expected to be slightly under pressure in the first quarter. Looking forward to the whole year, after the epidemic is effectively controlled, on the one hand, logistics and catering are gradually restored, and the production capacity is expected to be released; On the other hand, the channel is out of stock, the inventory level is low, and the demand for replenishment of inventory is strong. In addition, new product promotion should be the focus of enterprises. If Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) new products are inclined to fish products (fish seed, shrimp slip, blessing bag, etc.), the proportion of new products is expected to increase; In addition, Anji free brand prefabricated dishes are expected to be launched, and we look forward to new efforts in the first half of the second half of the year.
Recommended combination: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507)
(1) Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) forecasts 2022Q1 revenue and profits growth of 18% and 19% respectively, showing a flourishing trend of high-end liquor Baijiu in the Spring Festival. It also reflects the obvious effect of sales reform. The e-commerce platform was officially launched, and the channel reform went further.
The company has room to move calmly in terms of volume and price, and the logic of simultaneous rise of volume and price in the future is smooth. (2) Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) forecast 2021q4 to achieve revenue growth of 11% and net profit growth of about 11%. During the Spring Festival, the inventory of movable sales is good. After the management of the company is stable, it is expected to carry out the work of raising prices. It is estimated that the double-digit growth rate will be completed in 2022. (3) Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) it is estimated that the revenue and profit from January to February will increase by more than 35% and 50%, mainly due to the significant improvement of product structure, the growth momentum under the epidemic situation remains unchanged, and the annual performance is still possible to exceed expectations. (4) Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) released the annual report. In 2021q4, the revenue benefited from the price increase to achieve accelerated growth, but the increase of cost price put pressure on the profit. In 2022, the planned revenue and profit will increase by 12%, which will be realized by reducing cost and increasing efficiency, accelerating market transformation and product innovation. It is suggested to lay out the bottom and hold it for a long time. (5) Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) : the profit margin of the company will increase in 2022. The main sources are: first, the effect of price increase at the end of the year should appear throughout the year; Second, the cost reduction is relatively clear; Third, the cost rate shrank accordingly. The performance release has a band market, and it is expected that the profit of the statements in the second and third quarters may increase relatively.
Risk tips: economic downturn, food safety, fluctuations in raw material prices, lower than expected recovery in consumer demand, etc.
