The contradiction of short-term surplus of pigs is still in existence, the fluctuation of pig price is difficult to change the current situation of loss, and the underlying logic of capacity removal is smooth
Pig prices rose slightly month on month, and the short-term pork supply is still relatively abundant. As of April 15, the national average selling price of pigs was 12.59 yuan / kg, up 0.3 yuan / kg month on month. Under the background of the national epidemic spread and the differences in the tightness of epidemic control policies across the country, there are still some problems of poor transportation in the northern region. The end of the month is approaching labor day, and there is a feeling of resistance to prices and reluctance to sell among free range farmers. Affected by the policy of “transferring pigs to meat” in Guangdong, the price rise at the breeding end is strong in the south. From the perspective of industry breeding profit, as of April 15, the losses of outsourcing fattening and self breeding head were 314 yuan / head and 532 yuan / head respectively, and the loss range was enlarged by 31 yuan / head and 20 yuan / head respectively.
We are optimistic about the extent of capacity removal from April to may 2022. On the one hand, we judge that in the later stage of capacity deregulation, the extent of passive deregulation is expected to intensify; On the other hand, if the reversal consensus expectation at the industrial end leads to insufficient capacity removal of the industry, the grinding time may be prolonged, the test of industry funds will be intensified, and a more extreme capacity game will be formed at the end of the cycle, or the capacity removal range at the end of the cycle will be driven higher than expected.
Zhou’s view: the reversal of the pig cycle is imminent, and food prices continue to rise due to multidimensional catalysis
In 2022, the pig cycle is about to reverse, and the layout of production capacity is in the period of de industrialization. Recommend Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , which has the leading breeding cost; Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , with accelerated recovery of production indicators and reduced costs; Cycle reversal drives Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , with excellent performance flexibility; Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , which has the advantages of breeding cost and capital; Relevant beneficial object Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) .
Grain prices continued to rise due to multi-dimensional catalysis, and the landscape of the planting chain continued. It is suggested to pay attention to the target of grain price increase Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) . Highlight the advantages of transgenic technology Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) ; And Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , whose fundamentals will be improved; Relevant beneficial objects Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) , Syngenta (to be listed).
The safety margin of the dynamic insurance sector appears, and the industry space may usher in accelerated capacity expansion. It is recommended that China’s leading animal subunit vaccine enterprise Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) .
The price of raw materials in the upper reaches rises, the demand in the lower reaches is booming, and the concentration of feed market in the middle reaches continues to increase. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading feed enterprise Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) .
Market performance this week (4.11-4.15): Agriculture outperformed the market by 2.39 percentage points
This week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.25% and the agricultural index rose 1.14%, outperforming the market by 2.39 percentage points. In terms of sub sectors, the seed sector led the rise, with an increase of 5.51%. In terms of individual stocks, gains were led by Zhongnongfa Seed Industry Group Co.Ltd(600313) (+ 15.50%), jiawo shares (+ 13.12%) and Hainan Shennong Technology Co.Ltd(300189) (+ 12.22%).
Price tracking this week (4.11-4.15): pig, white feather chicken, grass carp, prawn and bulk Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices rose month on month this week
Pig breeding: according to the monitoring of Boya Hexun, on April 15, 2022, the average price of three yuan pigs abroad was 12.68 yuan / kg, up 0.39 yuan / kg from last week; The average price of piglets was 25.14 yuan / kg, up 0.84 yuan / kg from last week; The average price of white striped meat was 16.87 yuan / kg, up 0.14 yuan / kg from last week. On April 15, the price ratio of pig feed was 3.34:1. According to wind data, on April 15, the average profit of self breeding head was -531.70 yuan / head, compared with -20.13 yuan / head; The average profit of purchased piglets is -314.03 yuan / head, with a month on month ratio of -31.45 yuan / head.
White feather broiler: according to wind data, the average price of chicken seedlings this week was 2.09 yuan / feather, a month on month increase of + 22.22%; The average price of wool chicken was 8.89 yuan / kg, a month on month increase of + 3.86%; The breeding profit of hairy chicken was 2.31 yuan / feather, a month on month increase of + 1.02 yuan / feather.
Risk tip: the macro economy is down and the consumption remains depressed; Uncertainty of animal diseases in winter, etc.
