Key investment points
Baijiu sector: epidemic situation does not affect Q1, and the start is better. The Spring Festival in 2022 was earlier than that in 2021, and the progress of the overall funds collection was also ahead of schedule. The overall payment and delivery schedule were stable before the Spring Festival. The dynamic sales and channel inventory performance were good and the price was stable. We expect Baijiu enterprises to achieve a good start and set a good start for the whole year’s sales. Since March 2022, the epidemic has been mainly concentrated in five provinces and cities of Guangdong, Shandong, Hebei, Shanghai and Jilin. On April 14, Jilin Province announced that all cities and prefectures have achieved the goal of clearing the social aspects of epidemic prevention and control. Under the influence of epidemic control, the speed of delivery and consumption scenarios have been affected to varying degrees. At present, the 3-4 month is the traditional consumption season of Baijiu, and more is the inventory digestion of channels. We expect that with the gradual easing of the May epidemic, some of the damaged consumer scenarios are expected to be refunded in the Dragon Boat Festival and the following peak season. In terms of investment ideas, the top priority and strong high-end Baijiu sector is recommended. We should actively pay attention to the opportunity to improve the secondary elasticity of the epidemic situation, and recommend Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , recommend Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) .
Dairy products: the demand is stable. From January to February, dairy enterprises made a good start, and the epidemic affected the sales in March. Dairy products have a strong mandatory attribute and are strong against the trend among popular products with generally weak demand in 2021. In 2021, dairy enterprises responded to the cost pressure by raising prices and reducing promotions, and the leading competition tended to be mild. From January to February, dairy enterprises made a good start. The epidemic had an impact on the mobile sales in March, and the leader was still stable. Since the beginning of 2022, the pressure on the cost side has been relieved, and the transmission of price increase is smooth. During the Spring Festival, the sales of dairy enterprises are good, and the demand for gifts is strong. The target achievement rate from January to February is high. Affected by the epidemic, it fell month on month in March. It is expected to rebound quickly after the epidemic and change the uncertain trend. Among them, Yili’s revenue from January to February increased by more than 15% year-on-year, and the net interest rate attributable to the parent company reached 15.3%. It made a better start than expected, white milk and Jindian performed well, and the proportion of high gross profit product revenue continued to increase. The current round of epidemic mainly resulted in strict sealing and control policies in many places, and the logistics and transportation systems of Shanghai and other cities were affected. Dairy enterprises have made efforts to ensure supply through business channels such as community group purchase and meituan optimization. According to channel feedback, the inventory of Yili and Mengniu increased month on month in March, but it was still relatively benign. Although the supply side was damaged under the epidemic, the leader showed strong anti risk ability. Under the strategic differentiation of Yili and Mengniu, the competition pattern of the sector is optimized. We recommend Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , and pay attention to Mengniu Dairy industry.
Beer sector: Q1 price increase is gradually implemented, and the peak season after the epidemic is expected to pick up. In 2022q1 Spring Festival, the price increase is gradually implemented due to the superposition of catalytic factors. It is optimistic that the beer sector will pick up in the peak season after the optimization of epidemic prevention policies. From January to February, due to the catalysis of the Spring Festival, beer was laid out in advance, and the shipment performance was good. The secondary high-end sales volume of China Resources beer reached the highest in history; Since March, as the epidemic factors have largely inhibited the drinking scene of high-end products, at present, except for the serious epidemic situation in Shanghai and Jilin, the rest of the region is more controllable as a whole. With the continuous optimization of epidemic prevention policies, catering in some areas has resumed business, consumer demand has recovered, and the sector is expected to gradually usher in the peak season. Looking forward to the whole year, with the normalization of the epidemic, the product structure of liquor enterprises will be gradually upgraded, and the high-end trend will continue. With the superposition of price increase effect and advantageous channel layout, the leading companies will still show strong toughness. It is recommended to pay attention to Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , China Resources beer and Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) .
This week’s performance (2022 / 04 / 102022 / 04 / 16) the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.25%, the Shenzhen composite index fell by 2.60%, and the Shenwan food and beverage index rose by 4.40%, ranking first among the 28 Shenwan level industries. From the food and beverage sub sectors, the top three of the sector sales this week were pre processed food (+18.93%), beer (+9.06%) and roast food (+8.42%) sectors, and the Baijiu (+3.68%) and dairy (+4.34%) sectors were relatively behind.
Risk tips: the macro environment is less than expected, the impact of the epidemic is repeated, the demand recovery of food and beverage is less than expected, and food safety problems
