Zhou’s view: the difficulties caused by the epidemic will eventually pass, and the short term is a good layout period
(1) new energy vehicles: the recent epidemic has a certain impact on Tesla, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , velai and other leading companies, especially the start-up of enterprises in Shanghai; We expect that the most difficult stage will soon pass, and Tesla expects to gradually resume work on April 18. Enterprises outside Shanghai such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Weilai and so on are more short-term impact of the supply chain; The Ministry of industry and information technology and other state ministries and commissions and the Shanghai government will further take measures to ensure the safety of the supply chain and the normal production of key enterprises in the epidemic area. In this round of rising cycle of electric vehicles, a major trend of the industry is: the integration and globalization ability of leading companies are improved, and continue to lead technological innovation; Recently, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) strengthened the layout in Indonesia, further guaranteed the supply of upstream raw materials, and distributed the battery capacity in Indonesia to supply the world; Tesla’s self-developed 4680 battery is commercially available, deepening its leading role in core technology. Recently, the price of lithium carbonate has been further loosened. We expect that the price of lithium carbonate will decline periodically in the next two months, which will bring a better rebound environment to the industry.
From the perspective of investment rhythm, the stage with the greatest contradiction between supply and demand is about to pass, and the short term is a good layout period; As the demand side is better, the supply side of the industrial chain will be released faster in the second half of the year, and the growth environment will be better. We believe that we should pay attention to investment opportunities in three directions: (a) core growth: invest according to the level of barriers (batteries, lithium resources, diaphragms, negative electrodes, etc.), Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , and other companies benefit; (b) Post cycle: companies such as Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) and others benefit from flexible investment according to the growth rate, such as energy storage, power exchange and other sectors; (c) New technology: invest according to the penetration rate, such as 4680, flat wire, etc. Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Gold Cup Electric Apparatus Co.Ltd(002533) and other companies benefit.
(2) photovoltaic: from the perspective of new technology, Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) and other enterprises will increase the production capacity layout of TOPCON. 2022 is a key year for the accelerated improvement of high-efficiency battery penetration. From the perspective of short cycle, multiple factors lead to a short-term trough of photovoltaic, and the current stage is a better layout period; Recently, the price of photovoltaic industry chain continues to rise, which has affected the downstream installation demand. In addition, the short-term epidemic affects transportation. We expect these conditions to improve significantly in May. We are mainly optimistic about three directions: (a) terminal links such as global leading components with good competition pattern, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) and other benefits; (b) Innovation at the industrial end (n-type battery, granular silicon, localization of parts, etc.) benefits Jingke energy, poly GCL energy, etc. (c) Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) and other post cycle links such as power stations benefit.
(3) wind power: the bidding price of industrial chain products has reached the bottom range, and the current stage is a good window period for wind power plant investment; At the same time, the bottom of the bidding price corresponds to the low level of manufacturing stocks, which is worth long-term layout at present. Long term optimistic about offshore wind power + large-scale + core parts, Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) , Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) and other companies benefit; Wind power plant investment and operators benefit in the short term.
Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) : the rise of quantity and profit shows the leading position, and the double cultivation of production and research explains that the strong is always strong
The booming production and marketing will drive the volume and profits to rise simultaneously. Relying on high-quality customers, we will consolidate our leading position, strengthen R & D and grasp growth opportunities.
Sector and company tracking
New energy vehicle industry: Q1 new energy vehicle penetration rate is nearly 20%
New energy vehicle companies: Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) etc. released the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2022
Photovoltaic industry level: Longji 182 silicon wafer increased by 1.8%, and the current price was 6.82 yuan / piece
At the level of photovoltaic companies: Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Changzhou Almaden Co.Ltd(002623) released the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2022
At the level of wind energy industry: Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) signed the strategic cooperation agreement and Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) issued the statement of fixed increase and allotment
Risk warning: the impact and demand of the epidemic are less than expected
