Core conclusion
Industry changes this week
1) cement: the national cement market price this week was 508.3 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 0.33% and a year-on-year increase of 11.3%. This week, the national cement storage capacity ratio was 64.07%, with a month on month increase of 0.04pct and a year-on-year increase of 17.02pct. The cement delivery rate was 62.5%, with a month on month increase of 1.4 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 24.7 PCT.
2) glass: the national average price of white glass this week was 204648 yuan / ton, up 0.04% month on month and down 9.9% year on year. The glass inventory was 59.58 million heavy boxes, up 4.29% month on week and 129.9% year-on-year; The utilization rate of glass production capacity this weekend was 71.80%, up 0.85% year-on-year.
Investment strategy this week
Cement sector: the executive meeting of the State Council chaired by Premier Li Keqiang said that it is necessary to timely use monetary policy tools such as RRR reduction, further increase the financial impact on the real economy, especially industries and small, medium and micro enterprises seriously affected by the epidemic, and reduce the comprehensive financing cost. The central bank cut the RRR by 0.25% on schedule this Friday. Although it is less than expected, the policy is expected to continue to increase after the epidemic and further enhance steady growth, Support cement demand. At present, the current round of epidemic is still in multi-point outbreak, and the transmission range is gradually expanding. In addition, due to the influence of cloudy and rainy weather, the downstream construction slows down, which has a great impact on the shipment of enterprises. It is suggested to pay attention to Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) .
Real estate industry chain: Recently, following the relaxation of purchase restrictions in hot second tier cities such as Suzhou and Nanjing, Shanghai Lingang Holdings Co.Ltd(600848) also optimized the talent purchase policy, adjusted the original confirmation letter of purchase qualification to the confirmation letter of talent housing policy in Lingang New Area, and the validity period was adjusted from 6 months to 12 months. At the same time, talents working in key support units who have to work in the new area for more than one year can be shortened to 3 or 6 months, With the relaxation of purchase restrictions and other measures, the real estate sales end is expected to gradually pick up. Recently, affected by the epidemic situation in various regions, the completion and construction of real estate have been impacted, and the downstream home decoration has also been delayed one after another, which has a great impact on the overall demand of the industrial chain. We suggest that we should focus on the attention of ‘ Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 372 Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) etc.
Glass fiber: this week, the average price of alkali free glass fiber yarn was 6856 yuan / ton, down 6.94 yuan / ton month on month, and the average price of medium alkali glass fiber yarn was 5850 yuan / ton, flat month on month; The average price of winding direct yarn was 6267 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month; The average price of electronic yarn was 8875 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month. By the end of March, the industrial inventory was 290300 tons, up 93000 tons year-on-year and 47000 tons month on month.
Glass: China’s float glass market adjusted sporadically this week, with general trading and regional differences. Recently, shipments in some regions have been limited, and prices in some regions have increased slightly due to favorable conditions. On the whole, the high inventory of the float factory still creates pressure, the mainstream transaction is still flexible, the transaction in some areas is limited, and the power of short-term price adjustment is still weak. Continue to pay attention to the future logistics and transaction changes. Pay attention to Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) etc.
Risk warning: the completion is not as expected, the real estate is falling faster than expected, and the industry coordination is broken.
