Key investment points:
The performance of medicine was weaker than the market this week
Shenwan pharmaceutical biological index fell 1.38%, weaker than the market as a whole. Among them, the medical device sub industry increased significantly, up 2.94%; The medical service sub industry rose by 2.33%, the pharmaceutical business sub industry fell by 2.97%, the chemical pharmaceutical sub industry fell by 3.58%, and the traditional Chinese medicine sub industry fell by 3.82%; The biological products sub industry fell 5.17%.
This week’s special topic: the who’s recommendation on HPV vaccine is expected to not affect its vaccination procedures in the medium and short term. The HPV vaccination rate of teenagers around the world is less than 15%. We expect that this recommendation is mainly due to the low vaccination rate of teenagers in low-income countries, and the effectiveness of HPV vaccine in preventing cervical cancer has been proved by post market clinical research. HPV vaccine in the world, especially in low-income countries, is in short supply for a long time, It is estimated that in order to improve the coverage, who recommends using 1 / 2 agent. The clinical endpoint of the relevant literature supporting the proposal is to observe persistent infection, not the incidence of precancerous lesions in the pre-market clinical study of the vaccine. Therefore, we expect that if the clinical endpoint is changed, it will take more than 5 years of clinical verification, and it will not affect the immunization process in the medium and short term.
Outlook for next week: pay attention to covid-19 industrial chain and first quarter results in the short term, and pay attention to the implementation of medical consumption policies in the medium term
Last week, the overall volatility of A-share medicine fell, and only the service sector rose due to the State Council’s emphasis on expanding consumption in key areas and promoting service consumption such as medical and health care, elderly care and childcare. Looking forward to next week, the dynamic zeroing will continue, and the epidemic situation in China is repeated. In the short term, we still suggest paying attention to the domestic covid-19 vaccine Covid-19 pharmaceutical research and development progress, covid-19 testing products and services and other industrial chain related companies, as well as companies whose quarterly report exceeded expectations, consider the gradual recovery after the epidemic and the state’s support for consumer medicine in the medium term, pay attention to the Soviet restoration policy of some medical services and consumer medicine affected by the epidemic and the construction progress of new infrastructure after the epidemic.
Monthly gold shares in April
Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) ( Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) ): a multi category, multi market and multi-level comprehensive instrument leader, after covid-19, it will enjoy the acceleration of global layout and the business cycle of China’s new infrastructure, and its performance can grow continuously and stably. The company has adjusted to the bottom range of multi-year valuation, corresponding to the closing price on April 15. The valuations from 2022 to 2023 are 39x and 31x respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) ( Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) ): HPV vaccine batch issuance has increased steadily, children’s vaccination is expected to recover gradually, covid-19 vaccine booster needle continues, sequential vaccination is implemented, and it is expected to become a stable cash flow in the future;
The company has strong marketing capabilities and rich independent vaccine R & D pipelines. Wechat has started to work this year, and the largest employee stock ownership plan is deeply bound to core employees. Corresponding to the closing price on April 15, the valuations from 2022 to 2023 are 28x and 22x respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Risk of changes in national epidemic prevention and control policies; Trade friction exceeded expectations; Policy risk
